Brandon Loomis' reporting on the Colorado River framework makes the danger clear. Arizona could lose more water than any other state because the Central Arizona Project holds a junior priority. The deepest reductions could reach farms, cities and industries built around the assumption that the river would remain a dependable foundation beneath Arizona’s economy.
Arizona should challenge any plan that places a disproportionate burden on this state while allowing the Upper Basin to avoid mandatory cuts. But Loomis' reporting also raises a harder question Arizona’s political response has avoided.
What does Arizona do if conservation is no longer enough?
The natural flow of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry averaged 15.2 million acre-feet during the 20th
century, but only 12.1 million acre-feet this century. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are near one-quarter of capacity. Those numbers describe a river that can no longer support every promise made against it.
Arizona officials have responded by emphasizing the economic value of the water at risk. Agriculture, mining, semiconductor manufacturing, defense production, housing and development all depend on reliable water supplies. Each sector can make a strong case for protection. That is precisely the problem. If every use is economically important, no use is ever expected to shrink.
The water supply is not an unlimited foundation underneath the economy. It is the boundary of the economy.
For years, Arizona's growth model has operated on a simple assumption: if there is demand for housing, industry or expansion, water will be found. Cities approve development, builders buy land and companies announce new plants. Water managers are then expected to make the numbers work through conservation, groundwater pumping, transfers or some future supply.
The warning signs are no longer coming only from environmental groups or water agencies. Arizona's business community is beginning to acknowledge that water uncertainty threatens the growth model itself. A recent industry analysis estimated that shortages could reduce housing development by hundreds of thousands of homes. Homebuilders say projects already underway may be safe, but some now concede that the problem could become serious within a few years.
Once shortages begin showing up in housing forecasts, land values and development plans, the Colorado River crisis is no longer confined to reservoir operations and interstate negotiations. It has become a land-use problem. Arizona can decide where growth still makes sense and where the water cannot support it, or keep approving development until shortages, restrictions and rising costs make those decisions for us.
Arizona has spent decades asking how to get more water for growth. It now has to ask how much growth its water can support.
State and local officials cannot keep warning that Arizona's water supply is in danger while approving more development that depends on that same supply. If the water is no longer secure, their growth decisions should reflect it.
Some planned developments simply do not fit Arizona's water future. A subdivision that depends on pumping groundwater faster than nature replaces it is not sustainable, no matter how many permits it receives. Nor should a 100-year assured water supply determination be treated as proof of security if it rests on optimistic assumptions about future supplies. Paper assurances do not create water.
Arizona should defend its legal rights and demand that all seven basin states share the burden. But even a fairer deal will not relieve Arizona of the choices it must make about growth and water use at home.
The hard conversation is not whether growth is good or bad. It is whether every proposed development deserves water simply because someone wants to build it.
Stop pretending every planned development is automatically compatible with the water future Arizona is facing. The river has already drawn the boundary. Arizona's leaders must decide whether they are willing to govern within it.
Rusty Childress is an Arizona photographer, writer and Rio Verde Foothills resident who has written about Colorado River and groundwater policy.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona has a growth problem, not just a water problem | Opinion
