The Arizona-Mexico Commission has spent the past year advocating for the United States to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) before the July 1, 2026 deadline. Our message to leaders in Washington was simple: protect what works. Make adjustments where needed, but do not undermine the trilateral framework that has made America prosperous for over a decade.
But July 1 came and went, and our trade future remains uncertain.
While Mexico and Canada had both communicated their formal intent to extend the USMCA for an additional 16 years, the U.S. declined to renew on the July 1 deadline. And although that made for an impactful headline, it’s not quite the full story.
What the missed deadline really means
Non-renewal is not termination. Even if the administration sought
to withdraw from USMCA, President Trump would likely need congressional approval to do so. This means that even if our three countries fail to agree on amendments during this review period, the USMCA will continue in its current form, with ongoing reviews, until July 1, 2036. In addition, last week U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Secretary of the Economy Marcelo Ebrard for a third round of USMCA trade negotiations.
However, Greer has also indicated that he is planning for interim bilateral trade agreements with Mexico and Canada this year, with broader USMCA changes delayed until 2027.
And the cost of not renewing in a timely manner is real. Over and over, we have heard from Arizona businesses and farmers that trade uncertainty makes long-term investment decisions almost impossible. Years of bargaining come with consequences; supply chains are built with 30-year visibility and we’re asking companies to plan without even one.
Arizona's economy thrives with trade
Today, trade in Arizona is at record levels. We are the epicenter of the world’s most advanced technologies, and our state stands as a beacon around the world for opportunity and progress. Modern international trade supports roughly one in five jobs in our state. It powers our small businesses, strengthens our supply chains and ensures workers have a steady paycheck.
And when it comes to Arizona’s international trading partners, Mexico is at the very top of the list, receiving nearly $14.6 billion in Arizona exports. Every day, goods, services and talent move between Arizona and Mexico, and our economies are deeply connected and increasingly interdependent. Canada is also a trusted partner and major source of investment, with hundreds of Canadian companies operating in Arizona supporting thousands of jobs, in addition to the $2.8 billion in Arizona exports to Canada each year.
North America is stronger together
It’s clear that the path forward is to build stronger partnerships with our allies, not create uncertainty that weakens supply chains and raises costs. The United States, Canada and Mexico must move forward as a unified trade bloc that will compete against the rest of the world, rather than as three countries in fragmented competition with each other.
We have the data and the real-world experience from Arizona’s leaders of industry, confirming that the USMCA has worked for Arizona. And it’s clear that this is not just a trade policy discussion happening in D.C. This is a decision that affects jobs in Tucson, farms in Yuma, businesses in Nogales and families across our entire state.
If USMCA negotiations drag on, we risk the strong relationships with Mexico and Canada that are a key part of keeping Arizona competitive. So once again, on behalf of the Arizona-Mexico Commission and the entire Arizona business community, I urge our leaders in Washington to renew the USMCA and protect our trade future.
Eva Masadiego is the executive director of the Arizona-Mexico Commission, part of the Office of Governor Katie Hobbs.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona's economy needs the USMCA trade deal. Renew it | Opinion
