After parts of Phoenix were blanketed in golf-ball-sized hail, winds up to 75 mph ravaged trees all over and 16 tornado warnings were issued across Arizona, it’s all finally coming to a close.
Thursday afternoon, Oct. 22, a frontal boundary swept through the state west to east, bringing dry air along with it that shut off the storm spigot across the state. It’s the first calm day in Arizona since the beginning of the week.
The good news is that temperate, calm conditions are expected through the weekend and at least the first half of next week.
Consistent troughing in the upper levels will keep cooler air rolling in, allowing highs to stay 5 to 10 degrees below average over the weekend. Normally, the upper level support could spark some storm activity:
In lower deserts, it’ll be too dry, but some leftover moisture will still get squeezed out in Arizona’s higher terrain to the north and east.
Specifically on Saturday, Oct. 24, showers and storms are expected during the daytime, but nowhere near the severity of what’s been experienced this past week. Storms that come and go in the much more traditional sense, leaving behind light, scattered totals up to a quarter of an inch.
Starting next week, zonal flow to weak high pressure will take over the forecast. Zonal flow is the midpoint between high and low pressure — no dominating warmth or storm systems, we can just vibe.
Temperatures slowly return to average in the mid-80s during the work week, dew points are dry in the 40s to low 50s and skies remain mostly clear. The perfect Arizona fall.
All good things eventually come to an end, but it’s hard to say just when, yet. The next opportunity for rainfall may come late next week into the weekend, but models are still doing a lot of flipping around on dates and whether we get anything at all.
Next weekend also happens to be Halloweekend. It wouldn’t hurt to prepare for a spooky, and possibly stormy, Halloween.
Meteorologist Tevian Whitehurst covers extreme weather and climate for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Follow him at @TevianWX on Instagram and Facebook (Meteorologist Tevian Whitehurst).
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What's next for metro Phoenix after storms? See the forecast
