When the NFL schedule is released every spring, the predictions begin. Fans and analysts circle matchups, identifying games their teams could win.
This spring, not even the most optimistic fan of the Arizona Cardinals
would have circled Week 2. The Cardinals, fresh off a 3-14 finish, were hosting the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Even at home, oddsmakers immediately pegged the Cardinals as 10-point underdogs.And as recently as a week ago, that would have remained the consensus.
But if you ever needed a reminder of how quickly outlooks can change in the NFL, this matchup has provided it.
In the season opener, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold went down with a hip injury. Then, a few days later, the Cardinals stunned the Los Angeles Chargers,
26-14, on the road.
Suddenly, the door was ajar. And when Darnold was officially ruled out, the Vegas line dropped all the way to 3.5.
The Cardinals, of course, aren’t focused on those external assessments. Asked about the Cardinals’ Week 1 upset by a reporter who referenced point spreads, head coach Mike LaFleur appeared bemused and responded, “I don't look at the Vegas odds.”
But they understand, with Darnold's injury, the opportunity in front of them.
“It's not shocking that they got the result that they did last year,” LaFleur said. “They, in my opinion, are the best-coached team in football. I think they have the best defense in football. And (in Darnold), they have a really, really good quarterback with it.”
Now, one of those factors is out of the picture for Week 2.
That’s not to dismiss backup QB Drew Lock, whom LaFleur described as “efficient” and “a good quarterback,” while rattling off his impressive Week 1 stat line: 16 of 22 for 187 yards and a touchdown.
“The moment's definitely not too big for him cause 1) he's done it and 2) just his demeanor,” LaFleur said.
Plus, the Seahawks still have the same elite defense that led them to a Super Bowl. Their most important players are all back, and they once again shut down the Patriots in Week 1, allowing just 10 points while forcing Drake Maye into three interceptions. Their head coach, Mike Macdonald, remains a schematic wizard on that side of the ball.
“He does so many different things,” Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett said. “Different personnel groups. Obviously he has the players to do a lot of the things that he wants to do, and they're very versatile in where they can play in different spots of the game. And they're disciplined.”
But losing Darnold is significant. Since his career resurgence in 2024, he has produced .12 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, based on For The Numbers’ calculations. In that same span, Lock has produced a dreadful negative-0.18 EPA per dropback.
Over a full game in which a quarterback drops back 30 times, that difference is worth nine points.
In other words, this is shaping up quite nicely for the Cardinals.
And against this opponent, they need that help. The last Cardinals’ win over the Seahawks came all the way back in November 2021. Since then, they’ve lost nine straight, by an average margin of 9.6 points.
“We'd be foolish to not know the history of the series,” Brissett said.
It’s been a subject of discussion in the locker room this week.
“We were talking earlier,” wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. said. “Mike (Wilson)'s 0-6, Trey (McBride)'s 0-8 and I'm 0-4. So it's like, we need a win here soon. Sooner than later for sure.”
And imagine if it happens this week. These Cardinals, who began the season as the NFL’s least-heralded team, would be 2-0.
You know the stats shown on broadcasts this time of year. Since postseason expansion in 2020, 75% of teams to start 2-0 have reached the playoffs. The numbers are less favorable to teams who — like the Cardinals — lost double-digit games the year prior, but even among that group, 50% of 2-0 starts have resulted in a playoff berth.
Playoffs? Cardinals? Not too many stories put those words on the same line this summer.
Even if it remains a distant possibility, the glimmer of hope would be welcome around here.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Sam Darnold injury opens major opportunity for Arizona Cardinals
