During a rally on Sept. 9, President Trump promised every American adult a $5,000 dividend if the Republican Party wins both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections this November.
However, this isn't the first time Trump has promised Americans money without following proper procedures to deliver checks.
In early 2025, Trump mentioned a $5,000 stimulus check due to savings generated by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency. However, those checks never went through, and DOGE shut down earlier this year. Then again, in November 2025, Trump promised Americans a $2,000 stimulus check to alleviate the financial burdens from his tariff policies. However, the money for these stimulus checks would come from the steep tariffs Trump had
been imposing on every U.S. trading partner.
Once the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unconstitutional, it became increasingly unlikely that Americans would ever see this stimulus check.
Yet, again, Trump has promised $5,000 if Republicans can win the House and Senate during the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Here's why this may be a little more difficult than he led on.
How would the $5,000 dividend work?
According to Trump's speech in Dallas on Sept. 9 and the White House press release the day after, the money would come from the strength of the economy because Trump has "unleashed trillions in new private investment," and, "launched an unprecedented crackdown on government waste."
Even if the Republican Party won and the $5,000 checks were to pass, experts say this would cost the government an estimated $1.2 trillion, which could lead to further debt and inflation.
Are $5,000 Trump dividends actually going to happen?
However, similar to the previous stimulus check Trump promised, it would need congressional approval before being sent out, which could take months, and possibly run into issues with the Supreme Court, as the tariff-stimulus checks did.
Other financial payouts Trump promised.
Although economists and politicians on both sides of the political spectrum are skeptical about Trump's ability to come through on this $5,000 payout if Republicans do win, the president has delivered in the past.
In December 2025, all military personnel got $1,776 "Warrior Dividend" bonuses. Although Trump had said the payments would come from tariff revenue, the funds came from military housing funds that Congress appropriated in Trump's sprawling "One Big Beautiful Bill" law.
More recently, new "Trump Accounts" went live, depositing $1,000 into savings accounts for children born between 2025 and 2028. As of July 6, Trump said 6 million children had Trump Accounts, which are meant to serve as investment starters for young Americans.
Still, these $5,000 checks are one of the larger amounts Trump has promised. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, this would cost more than all three COVID stimulus payments combined, the projected cost of the President’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act next year and is 50% larger than the entire primary deficit projected for 2027.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Will Trump's $5,000 dividend check happen? Why it may not
