The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Phoenix Raceway for another high stakes duel in the desert among the world’s greatest stock car drivers. Instead of focusing on four teams vying for the championship, the Avondale-based track now serves as a crucial proving ground in the sport’s revamped postseason that should showcase the journey of many deserving title hopefuls.
For the first time since 2004, Arizona isn’t hosting the penultimate race or the finale, but that doesn’t make things any less impactful. In fact, it’s very likely the complexion of this race and how teams tackle the tricky one-mile trioval will be completely different from what’s been seen over the past two decades.
Let’s get up to speed with what’s happened in NASCAR and who the title
contenders are for the Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway at noon MST (3 p.m. ET) on USA Network on Sunday, Oct. 18.
NASCAR title chasing in the desert
During the offseason, NASCAR changed its playoff format after years of scrutiny from fans and those in the industry. Many questioned the legitimacy of crowning a champion via three rounds of elimination and a winner-take-all format for the finale, campaigning for a reversion to some variation of a season-long points system.
In an effort to go back to its roots, the sanctioning body revived The Chase — a 10-race postseason that only resets points at the start — after a 12-year hiatus. The format originally introduced in 2004 has proven to reward teams for consistency and winning, rather than Hail Mary moments under the previous playoff system.
Since 2005, Phoenix served as the penultimate race, meaning there were typically only two to three drivers in contention for the championship during this 10-year span of The Chase. Each year Arizona hosted the finale, there were only four teams fighting for the title.
Although the points gaps may be deemed large, all 16 teams are still mathematically alive for the 2026 championship and about seven drivers still have a legitimate shot heading into the 312-kilometer race on Oct. 18 — the most there’s ever been in the 38-year history of Cup racing at Phoenix.
With more drivers in contention and a better system for crowning a worthy champion, intensity will be amplified and this could wind up being one of the wildest races ever at Phoenix.
“More people feel like they still have a shot than when we had the Championship 4 here,” two-time Phoenix winner Denny Hamlin told The Republic. “I think you have six to seven legit contenders that feel like they have a chance. I would say at this point of the season — when you had the finale — two-thirds of the field is just thinking about the Bahamas at that point. There's nothing else to race for and you've kind of locked into your points position.
“I just think there's going to be more people with more to gain this time around than what we've seen in the championship races. So while the celebration at the end might be a little bit different, I just don't think you're going to see much of a difference when it comes to the racing, except for maybe even more intensity than what we've had in the past.”
Someone else who knows all too well about the intensity of chasing titles is two-time Phoenix winner Christopher Bell. The driver for Joe Gibbs Racing ranked fifth or higher in the standings the past four years, and now under the new Chase format, he finds himself in possibly the best position of his career.
Last week, Bell finished runner-up in a photo finish by 0.029 seconds, which marked his eighth second-place finish of 2026. Despite now posting a 25% top-two rate on the season, the 31-year-old finds himself third in the standings with two points separating him from second and 51 back from the lead.
“The pressure so far has been way more than what we endured through the playoff format,” Bell told The Republic."With having a one-race, winner-take-all, it’s a pressure-filled moment, but one thing that was lacking was the importance of every single week. If you won a race, you got rewarded with off weeks where the races didn't matter, because you're already locked into the next round.
“With the current Chase we have right now, every single race is equally important — not only the race finish, but the stages as well. Stages have a huge impact on what we're seeing play out, so it really is basically three races in one weekend. It puts an immense amount of pressure on qualifying as well.”
Denny Hamlin’s NASCAR dominance
When NASCAR last left Phoenix, Tyler Reddick was the talk of the sport after starting off the 2026 season with three consecutive wins. From there, it was the Hamlin and Toyota show, with the combination accounting for 14 wins through 26 races in the regular season.
Hamlin locked up the 1-seed for The Chase with ease and actually clinched a full race early, courtesy of series-best marks in top fives, top 10s and average finish. While his four wins remain second-most to Reddick’s five, he also earned three consecutive victories and still leads the series in top fives, poles and average finish through 32 starts.
Despite being the best driver in the series by the numbers, Hamlin ranks second in the standings and 49 points back from the leader with four races remaining. Unfortunately, resilience hasn’t translated to reward for the No. 11 team, who ran into trouble at Darlington (South Carolina) Raceway and Las Vegas (Nevada) Motor Speedway, but were able to salvage two top-20 finishes.
Many would associate Hamlin and Phoenix with his championship-caliber performance in the 2025 finale, where he dominated for 208 laps before losing the race and title on an overtime restart. The reality is that the future Hall of Famer has a long history of chasing championships at the one-mile track — eight times in his 20-year career, to be exact.
“ We all get caught up sometimes thinking about the short-term and what we saw this past weekend, thinking it will carry into next weekend,” Hamlin said. “I think our sport is more week-to-week than that. My experience is understanding that this is a marathon, not a sprint.
"We're only 60% of the way through (The Chase) right now, there's still a lot of racing left, a lot of stages and a lot of points to be had. You’ve got to be patient. Pushing sometimes a little too hard can put you in a bad spot and end up ruining your day.”
The NASCAR champ is here at Phoenix Raceway
Kyle Larson went 51 races between wins, but the reigning champion has returned to form at the perfect time and is looking poised to defend his title. Failing to find victory lane since May of last year, the driver for Hendrick Motorsports ended his drought in the second race of The Chase and has now won twice through six races.
Larson and the No. 5 team are statistically putting together the greatest postseason performance in the sport’s history through six starts, posting an astonishing 2.8 average finish with a pair of runner-ups to go with their two wins. As a result, the two-time champ went from seventh in the standings and 55 points back when The Chase began, to leading by 49 entering Phoenix.
While Larson's only win at Phoenix came in 2021 with a different generation of car, he leads the series overall in average-finishing position, placing third in the last three starts.
NASCAR three-peat watch at Phoenix Raceway
Among the many drivers and storylines to look out for this weekend, two of the most significant are from title contenders with the same goal in mind: to win three consecutive races. Not only is this achievement possible for Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney, but both have also already won at Phoenix.
Briscoe is coming off back-to-back victories at Las Vegas and Charlotte (North Carolina) Motor Speedway. In the span of two weeks, the driver for JGR has gone from eighth to fourth in the standings, gaining 58 points and entering 65 behind Larson. The 31-year-old scored his first Cup win at Phoenix in March 2022, but failed to complete two of his last three starts at the one-mile track.
“Phoenix is where I’ve been able to at least win my first Cup race, so I feel confident going there,” Briscoe said. “Stats-wise, I would say we have been one of the worst cars — if you just look on paper at the finish — but we’ve passed so many cars and went from the back to the front I don’t know how many times. I think we’ve blown five tires in two races there. So the end result doesn’t always show great, but we’ve been really fast there.
Blaney, once considered the greatest to never win at Phoenix with four runner-up finishes, now can’t stop finding himself in victory lane. The 2023 champion is trying to accomplish something only Hall of Famers Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have done in the track’s history by winning three-in-a-row.
This could be a make-or-break race for the Team Penske driver, who sits fifth in the standings, but is 85 points back. While Blaney failed to finish two races in The Chase, he placed top-five in the other four events and is coming off his best effort of the postseason (third). Additionally, he’s the only driver with top-fives in eight of his last nine starts at Phoenix, leading the series in average finish (5.2) with the seventh-generation car.
“We need it,” Blaney said. “We need to win as much as we can to climb our way back into The Chase battle for the lead. But (Phoenix) has been a good place for us and hopefully we could continue to add Ws there and just continue to have speed there to contend for the win.”
Carson Hocevar: A NASCAR star is born
Since last at Phoenix, 23-year-old Carson Hocevar has taken the racing world by storm, effectively putting NASCAR back in the mainstream spotlight. Whether attending the Met Gala, taking time for fans after racing for three hours, or making waves both on and off the track, he’s starting to become a household name in sports and pop culture.
Nicknamed “The Hurricane,” due to his chaotic and disruptive nature, Hocevar has taken the sport to heights it hasn’t seen since Dale Earnhardt Jr. was competing. The hot shot for Spire Motorsports broke through competitively and in terms of exposure, following his first victory earlier this year at Talladega (Alabama) Superspeedway.
Hocevar qualified for The Chase, but it appears he won’t make a run at the championship in his first attempt. While he has five top-15s in six starts this postseason, he’s 10th in the standings and 180 points back from Larson. He did make some noise after placing third at Bristol (Tennessee) Motor Speedway, when he and Blaney infamously traded punches on pit road after the race.
Fans at the Oct. 18 race in Phoenix will get to see Hocevar “Ride the ‘Dente,” as he sports the infamous Chili’s No. 77 car he won at Talladega with.
Remembering NASCAR star Kyle Busch
One could make the case that the biggest sports headline in 2026 was the unexpected loss of two-time champion Kyle Busch back in May due to a sudden illness. Since then, Busch’s No. 8 has been retired by Richard Childress Racing and Austin Hill has taken over driving duties of the No. 33.
While NASCAR and its fans spent the summer months mourning the loss of its winningest driver (234 across the top three national series, to be exact), the past two weeks have brought some closure to the tragedy with celebration of life ceremonies at his home tracks of Las Vegas and Charlotte.
Remembrance of Busch, nicknamed “Rowdy,” will continue into Phoenix, where he won 16 times over his career. Busch’s No. 8 will be painted on the infield of the one-mile track and fans are encouraged to salute the legend by holding up eight fingers in the air on Lap 8 of the race.
NASCAR's Phoenix desert duo
Of the 37 drivers competing at Phoenix, only two claim Arizona as their home state, and both have had a tough season.
Alex Bowman of Tucson is ranked 26th in the standings, despite competing for powerhouse team Hendrick Motorsports. This is largely due to the fact the driver of the No. 48 missed four races while sidelined with vertigo.
The race at Phoenix will mark the first of three final homecomings for the 33-year-old, who announced he would be stepping away from full-time racing at the conclusion of the 2027 season. While numerous injuries over the years factored into his decision, he admits he always intended to retire around 35 to step back and enjoy his life.
Glendale’s Michael McDowell has had a very bizarre year for someone who’s earned a reputation of being successfully scrappy. Not only is he the only driver at Spire who didn’t qualify for The Chase, with Hocevar and Daniel Suarez finding victory lane, it was also the first time in his 19-year career he had a teammate who won.
Although just six top-10 finishes, he scored one runner-up and is ranked 20th in the standings, which is better than where he ended the last two seasons. At 41 years old, McDowell has no intention of slowing down and should be more competitive next year, given the overall success Spire has seen in 2026.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Why Phoenix Raceway is a pivotal proving ground in NASCAR’s Chase
