Six polls released in late August show Democratic Go/v. Katie Hobbs with a lead over her GOP challenger Rep. Andy Biggs in the race to become Arizona's next governor.
The polls, which each surveyed likely
voters, show Hobbs' margin as low as 4 and as high as 15 percentage points.
On average, the polls showed Hobbs ahead of Biggs 47% to 39%.
A seventh poll showed Hobbs up by less than 2 percentage points. That poll surveyed registered as opposed to likely voters, the latter of which tends to be more representative of who votes in elections.
The polls offer a snapshot of voter sentiment in early and mid-August and do not predict the outcome of November's election.
The polls were conducted early in the general election cycle and all followed Biggs' decisive July 21 primary victory, which he won with 74% of the GOP vote. But they show Biggs, a five-term congressman from Gilbert and a former state lawmaker, needs to shore up support among Republicans and independents to oust Hobbs from the Governor's Office.
"Despite his historic victory in the primary election, the Republican electorate has yet to solidify around Biggs for the general," Paul Bentz, pollster for the firm HighGround, said in a statement. "At the end of the day, we expect that Republicans will find their way into the Biggs camp which will make the margin much closer."
Hobbs defeated her Republican opponent, the newscaster Kari Lake, by less than 1 percentage point four years ago. Hobbs was a state lawmaker and secretary of state for four years before she was elected to the Governor's Office in 2022, a cycle that saw Arizonans reject statewide candidates who adhere to conspiracies about stolen elections.
With Labor Day ahead and early voting beginning in just over a month, Hobbs and Biggs have each ramped up their attacks in recent weeks, launching advertisements that could shift the race before the vote on Nov. 3.
What did the polls show?
NextGenP, a conservative polling firm, surveyed 1,627 registered voters from Aug. 17 to 19. Thirty-nine percent of people said they would vote for Hobbs and 37% said they'd vote for Biggs. No Labels candidate Teri Hourihan and Green Party candidate Risa Lombardo each pulled less than 1% of people polled. The poll had a margin of error of 2.6%.
Republican-leaning HighGround surveyed 400 likely voters from Aug. 15 to 18. The poll showed Hobbs with a 15-point lead at 49% over Biggs' 34%, and had a margin of error of 4.9%. Lombardo drew less than 1 percent and Hourihan just over 2 percent.
Quantus' poll of 780 likely voters was conducted Aug. 14 to 17. The poll had a margin of error of 4.1% and showed Hobbs at 49% and Biggs at 43%.
Kreate Strategies' Aug. 13 to 16 poll was conducted for American Encore, a conservative group founded and run by Biggs strategist Sean Noble. The poll showed Hobbs at 45% to Biggs' 40% with a margin of error of 3.3%. The poll surveyed 900 likely voters.
GOP-aligned Stealth Analytics found Hobbs at 43% and Biggs at 38% with a 4.3% margin of error. The poll was conducted Aug. 11 to 13 and surveyed 530 likely voters. One percent of voters said they'd support Lombardo.
Noble Predictive Insights polled 923 likely voters from Aug. 10 to 13. Forty-eight percent said they would vote for Hobbs, and 35% said they'd vote for Biggs. One percent of voters said they would support Hourihan and 2% favored Lombardo. The poll had a margin of error of 3.2%.
Arizona pollster GrayHouse found 49% of voters would back Hobbs and 45% would vote for Biggs. Lombardo and Hourihan drew minuscule numbers of voters, no more than 1% each. The poll of 600 likely voters had a margin of error of 4% and was conducted Aug. 9 to 11 for GOP candidate for treasurer Elijah Norton.
What do race prognosticators say about Hobbs v. Biggs?
Three leading race prognosticators say the race leans in Hobbs' favor: Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Real Clear Politics gives Hobbs an almost 11 percentage point lead in its polling average.
A fourth, Inside Elections, still considers the race a toss-up between Hobbs and Biggs.
Where do prediction markets stand?
Two major online trading platforms also give Hobbs the edge in November. The increasingly popular — and controversial — prediction market platforms have shown evidence they can accurately predict outcomes, and an Arizona Republic analysis found they were accurate across seven races in the July primary.
Kalshi on Sept. 1 gave Hobbs an 88% chance of winning a second term over Biggs.
Polymarket, which claims to be the world's largest prediction market, also put Hobbs' odds at 88% on Sept. 1.
On both platforms, Hobbs' lead over Biggs had widened in late August, when she ramped up negative advertisements against Biggs.
Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What polling shows about the Arizona governor's race
