Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Time/site: 1:25 p.m. MST, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: CBS. Radio: 98.7.
Last time they played: When the Cardinals beat the Chargers, 17-15, on Monday Night Football in Week 7 of the 2024 season, it set off the high point of the Jonathan Gannon era: a four-game win streak to put them atop the NFC West at 6-4. Since then, the Cardinals are 5-19.
Series history: The Cardinals are 5-11 all time against the Chargers, in a series that is typically played every three or four seasons. In fact, the two years between matchups this go-around is their shortest gap since they played in both 2001 and 2002.
Coaching matchup
The head coaching matchup here is fresh, as Mike LaFleur has never faced Jim Harbaugh at any of his stops. But the more intriguing storylines center
on the playcallers. The Chargers’ offensive coordinator is Mike McDaniel, who operated some of the league’s most exciting offenses in Miami and now gets to work with the most talented quarterback he’s ever had, Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, their defensive coordinator, Chris O’Leary, is an unknown. He’s called plays only once before, last season at Western Michigan. That’s quite the leap to the NFL.
Storyline
The Cardinals enter this season with remarkably low expectations. Oddsmakers and analysts alike have spent the summer pegging them as the worst team in the league. This week’s matchup could reflect that: The Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs, the largest spread of the week. But what if? What if LaFleur, in his first game as a head coach, pulls off a stunner? In one afternoon, the narrative surrounding this organization could flip on its head, stoking excitement for a new regime.
Arizona will win if…
- Mike LaFleur’s offensive vision becomes reality: All summer, we’ve heard about LaFleur’s offense, and how he wants to marry the run and pass to create uncertainty for defenses. That’s easier said than done, but it could — if all goes well — help the Cardinals access favorable matchups for Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson.
- They find solutions for the Chargers’ run defense: Last season, only the Super Bowl champion Seahawks had a better run defense than the Chargers, by EPA (expected points added) per rush — in large part because of the run-game presence of their outside linebackers. The Cardinals have a talented backfield, but they need to find schematic answers for this Chargers defense.
- Their interior D-line outplays its talent level: The Chargers’ weakness on the interior of their offensive line is glaring, so the question for Arizona will be whether it can take advantage. In theory, the Cardinals have few impact players up front, although it’s a good matchup for Walter Nolen to make a Week 1 statement.
Los Angeles will win if…
- Mike McDaniel reaches another level with Herbert: In four years in Miami, McDaniel twice produced a Top-10 offense despite limited quarterback play with Tua Tagovailoa. Now, he has one of the most physically gifted passers in the sport. The possibilities are endless, and terrifying for the Cardinals.
- Their interior offensive line holds up: The Chargers have a talented pair of tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, but the interior is concerning, especially after center Tyler Biadasz went down with a season-ending ACL injury. Their projected starters are left guard Kayode Awosika (a one-year, $2 million free agent), center Jake Slaughter (a second-round rookie) and right guard Cole Strange (a veteran with average production throughout his career).
- They take advantage of the right side of the Cardinals’ offensive line: Similarly, the Cardinals’ weakness is on the right side of the offensive line, where they’re likely down to third-string guard Jon Gaines, who will play next to journeyman tackle Elijah Wilkinson. The Chargers don’t have an elite pass rush, but Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu can get after the quarterback.
They said it
Jacoby Brissett on entering the season as Arizona’s starting quarterback: “I'm going into Year 11, I didn't think I was making it past two.”
Defensive coordinator Nick Rallis on McDaniel: “If you just took their bare bones of how they block in the run game and how they marry everything to look the same, whether that’s the wide zones or even some of their inside runs, and then to marry that with the pass game, that makes him good alone. And then his ability to dress things up is elite. So you kind of mesh all those things and you feel that challenge as you prepare throughout the week.”
By the numbers
10.5 — The Vegas line, in favor of the Chargers. They are the biggest favorite in the NFL this week.
132-69-1 — The record of Sean McVay’s former offensive coordinators as head coaches. LaFleur will aim to continue the success of that group.
18 — The number of passes thrown by the Cardinals to a receiver in motion last year. The Rams, under LaFleur and head coach Sean McVay, had 133.
35.2 — Points per game allowed by the Cardinals in their eight-game losing streak to end last season. But in the first half of the season, the Cardinals were actually a top-half defense by most metrics.
8 — Years since a running back was selected inside the top three of the NFL draft, as Jeremiyah Love was by the Cardinals. Love is set to debut against the Chargers, making it the most anticipated running back debut since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
Who will win and why
Chargers 28, Cardinals 21: The Cardinals defense may be healthier and better than it was down the stretch last season, but it’s still hard to envision that group having many answers for Herbert and the Chargers. And even if this new-look Cardinals offense delivers on its promise, it may not be able to score enough to keep up.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: How Arizona Cardinals can upset Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1
