All the good feelings from the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 1 win in Los Angeles over the Chargers have long since dissipated, but the Detroit Lions aren't exactly setting the NFL ablaze.
A porous Lions rushing defense could allow the Cardinals to move the ball consistently, and if the Arizona defense can cut down on its mental errors, this one could be competitive.
Arizona has lost three in a row, though, and has allowed at least 30 points in each game of those three games.
At this point, the defense feels like something of a lost cause, but putting together a strong offensive performance would re-affirm that LaFleur has his operation on the right track. It would also help quiet the noise surrounding Jacoby Brissett and the quarterback position.
Detroit Lions (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Time/site:
1:25 p.m. MST, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: FOX. Radio: 98.7.
Last time they played: The Lions came to Arizona early in the 2024 season, beating the Cardinals, 20-13. The Cardinals defense held Detroit scoreless in the second half, but their offense couldn’t take advantage.
Series history: The Lions lead the all-time series, 36-28-6, despite their own historical struggles. It’s been a series of streaks in recent years: The Cardinals won seven in a row from 2006-15, but the Lions are 5-0-1 since.
Coaching matchup
The head coaching matchup here pits Mike LaFleur against Dan Campbell, but the real intrigue will be when the Lions have the football. Their offensive coordinator and playcaller is Drew Petzing, who spent the past three years in that role with the Cardinals. He’ll be facing off with Cardinals defensive coordinator Nick Rallis — a coach who knows Petzing's secrets and tendencies as well as anyone.
Arizona will win if…
- Its makeshift offensive line holds up: The Lions defense has been awful to start the season, but the pass rush is their one redeeming quality. For the Cardinals to have a big day offensively and keep pace in what should be a high-scoring game, their offensive line needs to hold up. Unfortunately, that group is battered by injury. The projected starters are Jayden Williams, Isaac Seumalo, Hjalte Froholdt, Jon Gaines II and Elijah Wilkinson.
- The pass rush develops a pulse: The blueprint for stopping Jared Goff is known. Pressure makes him a much less effective player. Unfortunately, making that a reality is a tall task for a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in pressure rate. Nobody on that group has won consistently this year, not even Josh Sweat or Walter Nolen.
- Coverage busts stop: The Cardinals' coverage busts have been a major problem this season. Every game, they give up multiple big passing plays solely because of blown assignments. Jameis Winston played a horrid game last week and still managed 250 passing yards. If the secondary plays like that, Goff could go for 400, easily. Rookie safety Wydett Williams, in particular, needs to be better if he’s called upon again in place of Andrew Wingard.
Detroit will win if…
- Amon-Ra St. Brown runs wild: All season, the Cardinals have failed to develop a cohesive game plan for the opponent’s top pass catcher. Those players have averaged over 100 yards against the Cardinals, with seven touchdowns in four games. St. Brown could be in line for a massive day.
- Its cornerbacks hold up in man coverage: With a depleted cornerback corps, the Lions have deviated from their typical man coverage-heavy scheme this season. But against the Cardinals, they might have to go back. The Giants leaned heavy into man last week, trusting that Brissett couldn’t handle a high dosage of blitzes and that the Cardinals' wide receivers couldn’t win one-on-one. It worked, setting a clear blueprint for how to beat this Cardinals offense — as long as you have the cornerbacks to execute the plan.
- Its run defense does anything: Outside of the first quarter against the Giants, the Cardinals have struggled to open lanes for their running backs. The Lions, though, have been one of the league’s worst run defenses. So, what gives? That will be a key question in determining whether the Cardinals offense can keep pace with Detroit.
They said it
Mike LaFleur on the Cardinals struggles vs. the blitz: “I don't think I’m sharing secrets to Detroit or the next team, but when you get hit with something, you’re not having success, it’s a copycat league in some aspects. … The stats say it, the analytics say it, the tape says it, our eyes all said it, so we got to be better. It starts with me in terms of the schematics, giving them a better advantage, giving them better clarity.”
Nick Rallis on Drew Petzing’s impact on the Lions offense: “It’s a combination of both. Goff being there as long as he has and a lot of those skill guys. Dan Campbell. There’s a lot of ‘same as’ from what the Lions have had. Hank (Fraley) as the O-line coach, that’s a big role. But then you see Drew’s wrinkles.”
By the numbers
54.5 — The Vegas over/under for this game. That’s tied for the highest of any game on this week’s slate. The Lions, not surprisingly, are favored by 5.5.
8.5 — Jared Goff’s yards per pass attempt since he joined the Lions when kept clean. That ranks third among starting quarterbacks. When pressured, that number drops to 6.0, which ranks 20th.
4.7 — Brissett’s yards per pass attempt against man coverage this season. He has just a 50% completion rate, with two touchdowns and three interceptions, against those looks.
7.4% — Marvin Harrison Jr.’s win rate against man coverage, per Fantasy Points Data. That measures how often a wide receiver gains separation, and Harrison’s mark ranks last among 51 qualifying wide receivers.
0.73 — The Cardinals yards before contact per rush attempt, which ranks 29th. They have a get-right matchup against a Lions defense allowing 2.28 yards before contact, the second-most in the league.
Who will win and why
Lions 38, Cardinals 28: The Cardinals offense could have a big day against a Lions defense that lacks the talent to play the aggressive style preferred by coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. But Arizona will need to keep up with a Detroit offense that should be able to score at will. That’s a tough ask. The Cardinals defense struggles to generate pressure up front or cover anyone on the back end. And it mixes in a concerning amount of self-inflicted coverage busts. It’s a bad combination.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Here's how the Arizona Cardinals can upset the Detroit Lions in Week 5
