President Donald Trump will visit Bullhead City on Oct. 14, surrounded by top Arizona Republicans — with some notable exceptions.
Jay Feely and U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, the GOP nominees in Arizona's two most competitive U.S. House races, will not attend. Aides to Feely and Ciscomani told The Arizona Republic both men will be busy the day of the rally.
It's not altogether surprising the two Republicans would choose to skip the event. The president appears to be dragging down Republicans in the polls, as voters report frustration with an economy chilled by his sweeping tariffs and the conflict in Iran.
Democrats have spent millions of dollars on ads that emphasize the two men's ties to Trump.
"It would be political suicide for either of them to show
up in Bullhead City," said Doug Cole, consultant with the conservative firm HighGround.
Widespread pessimism toward Trump shows few signs of letting up with weeks before the Nov. 3 election.
One poll released by HighGround Oct. 13 predicted a "hurricane" for the GOP, finding Republicans were unenthusiastic and independent voters favored Democrats in key races. The poll was in the field in early October, the same week the Trump administration announced a firing squad execution that would be livestreamed to the public and an agreement to buy diesel fuel from Russia that appeared to contradict a law Trump had signed just weeks before.
Another poll, published by the National Federation of Independent Business on Oct. 13, found that business owners remained uncertain about economic conditions — a sign of pessimism in what is usually a core Republican base of support.
The apathy appears to include much of the president's base. Even some loyal Trump voters in Mohave County told The Republic they would not be attending the rally.
CJ Karamargin, a spokesperson for Ciscomani's office, said the congressman has "long-planned commitments" in the Tucson area that day. He'll hold an event with a local Chamber of Commerce in the morning and another involving a recognition of veterans in the afternoon, Karamargin said.
Feely is "regrettably" unable to attend, his general consultant Brian Seitchik told The Republic Oct. 12, declining to say more.
Races often tighten in the final weeks, and there are still open questions as to how voters will behave, Cole said. It's not clear, for example, whether voters will take out their anger at Trump in the top-of-the-ticket races like Congress, or whether they'll continue to vote against Republicans further down the ballot, as in the Arizona legislative races.
But the recent polls offer snapshots into the headwinds facing Trump and Republicans, which have been reflected consistently in surveys for months.
"The president appears to be visiting solid red states, to try to salvage what races can be salvaged, 21 days out of an election," Cole said.
Arizonans have started casting their ballots. Early voting began Oct. 7, the week before Trump's visit.
Trump tries to mobilize the base
Mohave County is a Republican stronghold and one of the most conservative parts of the state. It's represented by hard-line GOP Rep. Paul Gosar.
Trump's visit to the Grand Canyon State is part of a cross-country tour that has also included several stops in unusual locations. He launched the campaign blitz with visits to Texas and Oklahoma, two reliably red states. On Oct. 9, he visited New York, a deep-blue state. After Arizona, he'll head to Montana, another conservative state.
Bullhead City is positioned between Las Vegas and Phoenix, two major media markets. But it's far away from the swing districts where Republicans have spent millions of dollars trying to get the party's message across to voters.
It's more than 200 miles from Scottsdale, the heart of Arizona's 1st Congressional District, where Feely is running.
And it's across the state from Tucson, where Ciscomani is seeking re-election in Arizona's 6th Congressional District.
Ad attempts to distance Ciscomani from Trump
Feely and Ciscomani are already grappling with millions of dollars' worth of Democratic-funded attack ads that play up their past praise of Trump or support for his agenda.
One ad put out by the 314 Action Fund attacked Feely as a "rubber stamp" for Trump. It showed a picture of Feely and Trump golfing together several years ago.
Ciscomani sought to distance himself from the administration in a straight-to-camera video ad. Without mentioning Trump's name, he said he is an immigrant and will fight for working-class families.
"I'll always fight for working people to end Washington corruption for more money in your pocket, delivering for police, seniors and our veterans," he said. "Independent groups once again rank me Arizona's most collaborative and bipartisan lawmaker. Because I'm not a rubber stamp for anyone."
Appearing at Trump's rally would give Democrats more fodder to lob those attacks, Cole said. "That would be new footage for a refreshed ad."
Laura Gersony covers politics for The Arizona Republic. Contact her at Laura.Gersony@usatodayco.com or 480-372-0389.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Feely and Ciscomani skip Trump rally. 'It would be political suicide'
