It would be tough for Democrats to flip one of Arizona's rural, conservative-leaning congressional districts this year, but that hasn't stopped national political groups from pouring in money.
Both parties are funneling resources into the seat held by incumbent Republican Rep. Eli Crane as polling suggests Republicans could face serious headwinds in this year's midterms.
Crane won reelection in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District by nearly 10 points in 2024, roughly 55%-45%.
He is now locked in a rematch against the same Democratic candidate, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.
The district, which includes a large swath of northeastern Arizona, favors Republicans and historically has voted for President Donald Trump by double-digit margins.
But the uptick in spending is a sign both parties are keeping tabs on the district during a midterm cycle that could be challenging for the GOP.
"I would still categorize it as a reach opportunity," said Erin Covey, an analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report. "Democrats do have a credible path to victory, even if it is narrow."
Race heats up, at least on paper
The race appears to be heating up, at least on paper.
Crane and Nez have ramped up their fundraising since the last election cycle.
The size of Crane's campaign war chest has roughly doubled since 2024, records show. He has received more than $800,000 from House Republican leaders, a steep increase from years past. Nez, too, is bringing in more cash, raising about four times as much money compared to 2024.
But Crane's campaign still had the edge heading into August. He had raised about twice as much as Nez in total and spent four times as much.
Outside groups have been mobilizing in the district. Several Democratic-aligned groups have spent more than $750,000 in an ongoing attack ad campaign targeting the congressman, a sizable spend with more than two months to go before the election.
Non-partisan political analysts still rate the race as "likely" safe for Republicans.
Covey said the spending patterns mirror what's happening in other races where Republicans have a modest advantage. It makes sense for Democrats to start spending money, she said, but it might be more of a trial balloon to see how effective their attacks are, and whether it's worth investing even more money into the district as November approaches.
Arizona district becoming a priority
Democrats have emphasized that Nez performed several points better than their party's presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the district during the 2024 cycle, raising liberal hopes of an upset victory. Even if Nez repeats that strong performance, he still has a lot of ground to make up. The district strongly favored Trump during the 2020 and 2024 presidential cycles, illustrating its Republican tilt.
Liberal spenders hope this campaign cycle will bring new opportunities.
The recent attack ads, a joint effort by the League of Conservation Voters and a Latino voter engagement group, have highlighted Crane's opposition to clean energy tax credits in an attempt to win over voters who are concerned about their energy bills.
Nez's campaign has elevated pocketbook issues.
"Regardless of the money Crane and his billionaire friends will pour in this election season to deceive Arizona voters, Nez is focused on a campaign built on protecting our water, lowering costs, improving infrastructure, and taking our government back from the hands of the elites," Mark Hatton, a campaign spokesperson, wrote in a statement to The Republic.
Crane, for his part, has leaned into some rural Arizonans' skepticism of clean-energy projects, railing against "green new deal" policymaking and describing large wind and solar farms as being driven by "corporate elites." He's also promoted the Republican-led tax cut package he helped pass last year.
"Selling out rural Arizonans to avoid a third straight electoral loss is a bold strategy by Mr. Nez," wrote Greg Smith, a Crane spokesperson.
His district isn't at the top of the GOP's list of priorities. About two dozen seats, including two in Arizona, are generally regarded as much more competitive and have seen significantly more spending by both political parties.
The clearest sign of the district's competitiveness will be if national Republican Party groups mobilize to defend Crane, said Covey, like they're doing in the top battleground seats. But that hasn't happened yet.
"If they actually come and insert spending here, then we'll know he is truly vulnerable," she said.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: National groups ramp up spending in rural AZ congressional district
