As Palm Beach County swelters under extreme heat, the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the coast of Africa on Aug. 24 and continue west through the week.
"Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week," according to the NHC's tropical outlook for Aug. 23.
It's too early to tell whether there will be any affects from the system on Florida, but forecasters say be prepared in this most-active time of hurricane season.
Two other Atlantic systems are on the seven-day map including one near Portugal that is expected to fizzle from unfavorable conditions. The other is in the Central Atlantic southeast
of Bermuda, Invest 95L, which may see some development as it moves north this week, the NHC reported.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet this summer — although the Pacific season has become extremely busy — but disturbances picked up in the last week, and Tropical Storm Christobal briefly formed to become the third-named storm of the season. Experts say the busiest time of the Atlantic hurricane season traditionally falls between mid-August and mid-October.
If a named storm should develop, it would be called Dolly.
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AccuWeather lowers its 2026 hurricane predictions
In an updated hurricane season forecastreleased Aug. 19, AccuWeather decreased its prediction for the number of named storms this season but warned that residents should remain prepared. Three to five direct impacts on the United States are predicted and, as the saying goes, it only takes one.
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Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Aug. 23:
Is there a hurricane coming to Palm Beach Country or Florida?
The National Hurricane Center said there is one tropical disturbance in the northeastern Atlantic and low-pressure systems in the Central Atlantic and a third in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The one in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance for development through seven days.
The disturbance in the North Atlantic is more likely to head toward Europe rather than east to the U.S., forecasters said.
Over 60% of the Atlantic’s total hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Sept. 30, according to Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. While predictions are for a below-normal season, forecasters constantly warn "it only takes one" for the season to have an impact if a storm hits your area.
Historically, thefourth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs Aug. 15, with the first hurricane appearing Aug. 11 and the first major hurricane developing Sept. 1, according to NOAA.
A major hurricane is one that's at least a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or stronger.
National Hurricane Center tracking tropical waves, two areas of low pressure
At 8 a.m. Aug. 23, the National Hurricane Center was highlighting three areas in the Atlantic:
Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity and has only a slight chance of acquiring subtropicalcharacteristics, forecasters said. It's moving eastward to east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmentalconditions, and further development is not expected.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeastof Bermuda now dubbed by the National Hurricane Center as Invest 95L continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts northwestward.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Forecasters said a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week from the tropical wave moving generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. But it would become an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near zero percent
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent
Forecasters also are watching four tropical waves:
- A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19N 30W, moving westward around 12-17 mph.
- An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 20N, moving westward between 17 and 23 mph.
- An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 20N, moving westward between 14 and 18 mph.
- A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 17 mph.
Florida and Palm Beach County weather radar for Aug. 23, 2026
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When is hurricane season in Florida and for Palm Beach County?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map highlights "disturbances" in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don't have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones. Colors on the map indicate chances for development:
- Red: The odds of development are high
- Orange: There's a medium chance of development
- Gray X: There is little to no chance for development. In previous years, yellow was used.
What is a tropical wave?
"Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven," he said, adding that tropical waves contribute to about 80% of all major hurricanes.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12- Dolly, DAH-lee (fourth-named storm historically forms Aug. 15)
- Edouard, eh-DWARD
- Fay, fay
- Gonzalo, gohn-SAH-loh
- Hanna, HAN-uh
- Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahs
- Josephine, JOH-seh-feen
- Kyle, KY-ull
- Leah, LEE-ah
- Marco, MAR-koe
- Nana, NA-na
- Omar, OH-mar
- Paulette, pawl-LET
- Rene, re-NAY
- Sally, SAL-ee
- Teddy, TEHD-ee
- Vicky, VIH-kee
- Wilfred, WILL-fred
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What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
John Gallas, C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud are journalists for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://floridatoday.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical depression could form this week. Palm Beach County impacts?
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