A teasing cool front is forecast to filter into Florida toward the end of the week, scrubbing atropical funk from much of the state but with uncertainty about impacts to its soggiest southern reaches.
An area of low pressure high overhead that instigated a spat of heavy rainfall, including more than 11 inches in areas of Palm Beach County since Sept. 16, is still lingering nearby. It is forecast to push to the northeast during the next few days, allowing a front to droop into the Sunshine State.
The front, which one Tallahassee-based meteorologist called the first significant cool surge of fall, lines up with the astronomical arrival of autumn. While meteorological fall begins Sept. 1, Mother Nature’s fallbegins Sept. 22 with the autumn equinox.
National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Haner said the front should arrive for North Florida and the Panhandle Sept. 23 with drier and cooler air behind it.
Temperatures in the Panhandle will drop into the solid 60s and even upper 50s away from the coast with high temperatures through the weekend in the 80s. Coastal cities including Pensacola are likely to stay in the 70s overnight and upper 80s during the day but with little to no rainfall and drier air.
“Ask any Floridian who has endured a long summer and highs in the mid to upper-80s with lower humidity sounds pretty good,” Haner said. “Cool fronts can get off to a slow start in September. This one will actually have some cooler air behind it.”
Where the front stalls will define how sodden South Florida remains.
The Weather Prediction Center on Sept. 21 showed it making its way into the Florida Straits, but the NWS office in Miami is forecasting it to linger somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.
If that’s the case, more rainfall including a worst case scenario of up to 15 inches is possible for areas near the lake and south of it through the Keys.
“They’ll be a big difference in rainfall across short distances,” said Miami-based NWS meteorologist Sammy Hadi. “At this time, the pattern is very messy.”
How much rain has Florida received in recent days?
The official rainfall measurement at Donald J. Trump International Airport in West Palm Beach was for the week prior to Saturday was 6.26 inches, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
But Hadi said areas just northwest of the airport had received 11 inches based on radar estimates.
“It’s very localized,” Hadi said. “Just because gauges don’t sample at higher amounts, doesn’t mean it hasn’t fallen.”
Hadi warned of urban flooding through the week with rain chances remaining as high as 80% each day into Saturday.
Some communities were already reporting flooding this past weekend. The Lake Worth Drainage District, which manages 500 miles of canals and water control structures to prevent flooding, suggested people in areas where retention ponds were swelling or water was ponding to make sure street drains were clear of debris and ensure community flood control structures were working properly.
Carl May, a grounds supervisor for an estate in Palm Beach, said he ran into floodingsouth of President Donald Trump’s residence and private club Mar-a-lago and had to turn around.
“It was completely impassable unless you were in a truck,” he said. It happened so fast and was just pure rainwater. An absolute deluge.”
May said he went from consistent landscape watering over the drier than normal summer months, to all of the sprinklers suddenly being turned off.
“They’ve been off for 10 days,” May said. “Some of the delicate plants are getting beat up in the really heavy rain. It’s welcome, but it would be better if it were a little less.”
Tropical Storm Fay update: Does it pose any threat to the U.S. and will it become a hurricane?
In the tropics, Tropical Storm Fay formed on Saturday hundreds of miles southwest of the Azores and posing no threat to the U.S.
But, meteorologists had thought the sixth-named storm of the season may make a run at becoming the firsthurricane of the season.
That looked less likely on Sept. 21. Although Fay topped out at 70 mph and was maintaining wind speeds of 65 mph on Monday morning it was expected to wither after running into strong wind. Hurricane force winds begin at 74 mph.
In the satellite era, the latest date for a hurricane to form before this year was Sept. 11 when 2002’s Gustav and 2013’s Humberto both earned the designation.
Before the satellite era, there were two years — 1914 and 1907 — when no hurricanes formed.
“Close, but no cigar,” said meteorologist Matt Devitt in a social media post about Fay. “Fay peaked at 70 mph but failed to reach hurricane stats as strong wind shear isn ow weakening the storm. The hurricane-free streak continues…”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Florida's first 'significant' cool front coming, but it could stall
