Are the Miami Dolphins going to win a single game in 2026? It's hard to find hope, especially after news that De'Von Achane, far and away the best player on an otherwise inexperienced offense, will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL.
Even with the versatile Achane, the Dolphins offense has been bleak through the first three games of the season. They rank 26th of 32 teams in yards per game (290.7) and are tied for last with the New England Patriots in points per game (12.0). Malik Willis ranks 33rd among quarterbacks with at least one start by Pro Football Focus, completing just 57% of his passes with only one touchdown. He's been sacked nine times, tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
It's been bad on both sides of the football, with the defense
surrendering 28.7 points per game, fifth-worst in the league. At 0-3 and with one of the toughest schedules awaiting them, it's no surprise Dolphins fans have long resigned themselves to competing not for wins, but for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
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But can they at least avoid an 0-17 season? There hasn't been a winless team since the NFL expanded to a 17-game regular season in 2021. Only the 2017 Cleveland Browns and the 2008 Detroit Lions went a whole 16-game season without a single victory. The last team to finish with just one win was the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars in that ill-fated year under Urban Meyer.
The Dolphins came close in 2007, when Cam Cameron didn't pick up his first win as head coach until first acquiring 13 losses. The 2026 bunch certainly could rival that lowly 1-15 campaign, but there is hope that a few wins are lurking on what has been viewed as a lost season already. Some were seen as potential wins from the time the schedule came out; others have materialized as the first few weeks have shined new light on previously untouchable foes.
A disclaimer: This is by no means a definitive list. Upsets happen out of the blue all the time in the NFL, and any team can win any given Sunday. The 7-9 Seahawks shocked the defending champion Saints in the 2011 playoffs (you may know it as the "Beast Quake" game). The Jaguars won three games in 2021: the ascendant Bills, who would win the second of five straight AFC East titles, and the Dolphins and Colts, either of whom would have made the playoffs had they just taken care of business against Jacksonville. Just last season, Las Vegas opened with a resounding 20-13 win at New England; the Patriots would go on to the Super Bowl, while the Raiders would win two more games and land the No. 1 overall draft pick.
All this to say that in all likelihood, the scant Dolphins wins in 2026 are likely to come out of nowhere. No one can predict sports, which is why we watch the games every week. With that out of the way, here are the most likely candidates to get Miami into the win column, listed with when and where the teams play and the opponent's record after Week 3:
New York Jets
- Game date: Oct. 25 (Week 7)
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
- Opponent's record: 1-2
If you're looking for a gift of a win, historically it's smart money to ride with the Jets. They've suffered 10 straight losing seasons with double-digit losses every year of the 2020s. Even as the Dolphins' 2025 season spiraled into chaos, they still managed to sweep the season series with their divisional rivals.
But don't take this one for granted. The Jets haven't looked great, but Aaron Glenn has them looking a little more competent than they did in his first year in charge, with their losses coming on an overtime field goal to Green Bay and a late touchdown by Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs. Geno Smith has been solid if not extraordinary without the turnovers that plagued his stint with the Raiders, and the defense has allowed the second-fewest yards early on. Miami can get the edge on them fresh off its bye week or when they play in Week 12 in South Florida, but we expect the two to split this year.
Green Bay Packers
- Game date: Dec. 20 (Week 14)
- Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI)
- Opponent's record: 1-2
Really? Yes, the Dolphins are famously bad in cold weather. The Packers have made the playoffs three straight years and in six of the seven seasons Matt LaFleur has been in charge. But something is clearly amiss in Green Bay, whose -35 point differential is better only than Miami. They needed overtime to beat the previously mentioned Jets, and they needed a 10-point run in the fourth quarter just to get there. They can't even call on the mystique of Lambeau anymore, not after the similarly sorry Falcons came in and walloped them 35-14 last week. PFF grades them the worst team in the NFL; yes, worse than the winless Dolphins.
It's possible that Jordan Love and his array of pass-catchers gets it together and that Josh Jacobs solidifies the run game if/when he returns from the commissioner's exempt list after his domestic violence arrest. It's possible the defense rounds into form once Micah Parsons comes back from his torn ACL. But none of those are certainties, and the odds are just as good the wheels are coming off of the Packers as they are the kickoff temperatures will be cold enough to jinx Miami (and Malik Willis is used to those frigid conditions after playing there for two seasons).
Los Angeles Chargers
- Game date: Dec. 27 (Week 15)
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
- Opponent's record: 0-3
The Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Herbert rivalry is gone from this matchup, but both teams might end up looking like losers of that draft the way things are going. The Chargers have looked moribund with the third-worst point differential in the league, and PFF ranks their offense just under that of the Dolphins at No. 30. Not the best start for former Miami head coach Mike McDaniel, now the offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh.
As bad as the offense has been, Khalil Mack, Derwin James and the LA defense has been going all out to make up for it, ranked third-best by PFF. That's not a great sign considering Miami's hindrances on offense, but if it's to be a slop fest after Christmas, you could do worse than taking the home team to win.
Other candidates
- New England Patriots (Week 8 at home, Week 18 on road): Could the Pats' Drake Maye problem linger throughout the season? If the return of A.J. Brown fixes their offense, Miami might not stand a chance. They're unlikely to get the backups in the season finale if New England has to play for its playoff life.
- Indianapolis Colts (Week 10 on road): PFF ranks the Colts lowers than the Jets and Chargers through three weeks, and their defense has given up the most yards per game with an offense slightly better than the Dolphins'. But Indy has won five of their past six meetings, and Jonathan Taylor is more than capable of replicating what Ashton Jeanty and Kenneth Walker did to the Dolphins defense.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Can the Dolphins win one game in 2026? Here are their 3 best chances
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