Is there anything better than hearing the tropics remain quiet?
How about this? The chances for tropical development in the Atlantic basin are expected to remain low for the next couple of weeks, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
That's unusual but welcome news for Florida residents, especially as we approach the busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by locationThat doesn't mean forecasters aren't keeping an eye on a few areas near Florida with potential— although unlikely — for development between Aug. 8-15.
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Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin historically picks up in August, with the busiest
period of the season running from mid-August through mid-October and the peak coming Sept. 10.
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A weak disturbance is "likely" to pass by Florida's east coast beginning Aug. 7, which could increase chances for showers and thunderstorms,especially for coastal areas, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
The showers off Florida's east coast Aug. 5 are typical for this time of year, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne. Nothing tropical is expected to develop.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Aug. 5.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
No. There are no disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of 8 a.m. Aug. 5.
"The Atlantic basin continues to be unusually quiet for early August, and at this time there are no tropical cyclones expected to develop over the next week," said Carl Erickson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist via email Aug. 4.
"The current lack of activity is largely due to a combination of persistent Saharan dust, dry air, and stronger-than-normal wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic. Those factors have made it difficult for tropical waves to organize into named systems."
The Climate Prediction Center mentioned ensembles are showing more tropical waves coming off Africa, which is typical for this time of year. There's a 20% chance for development of any of those waves due to a "very strong El Niño, dry air and wind shear," all of which help suppress storms from developing or strengthening.
The third named storm in the Atlantic typically forms around Aug. 3, according to NOAA.
The next named storm in the Atlantic basin will be Cristobal.
What are chances we could have no tropical storms or hurricanes in August?
There have been a few years when there have been no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in August, even though the month marks the beginning of the busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season.
"We may see a couple of storms in the Atlantic in August, but seeing none is also not out of the realm of possibility due to increased amounts of wind shear and dry air," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
"If August were to end without a named storm, it would be only the fourth time since 1961," Erickson said.
The last time there were no August tropical storms was in 2022.
"That said, it's important to emphasize that a quiet August does not necessarily translate into a quiet hurricane season.
"Historically, we've seen seasons where activity was delayed before increasing substantially later in August and especially during September, which is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season."
National Hurricane Center tracking 3 tropical waves
There are no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. Aug. 5, and no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days.
There are three tropical waves out there:
- A tropical wave is along 26W from 07N to 17N, moving west at around 6 to 11 mph.
- A tropical wave is along 43W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 6 to 11 mph.
- A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 82W, extending southward from the Cayman Islands, and moving west at 11 mph.
What is a tropical wave?
"Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
"Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes."
Florida weather radar for Aug. 5, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Is any more rain expected in Florida this week? See NOAA forecast
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What's changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026- Cristobal, krees-TOH-bahl
- Dolly, DAH-lee
- Edouard, eh-DWARD
- Fay, fay
- Gonzalo, gohn-SAH-loh
- Hanna, HAN-uh
- Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahs
- Josephine, JOH-seh-feen
- Kyle, KY-ull
- Leah, LEE-ah
- Marco, MAR-koe
- Nana, NA-na
- Omar, OH-mar
- Paulette, pawl-LET
- Rene, re-NAY
- Sally, SAL-ee
- Teddy, TEHD-ee
- Vicky, VIH-kee
- Wilfred, WILL-fred
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What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story was updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: What are chances we could see no hurricanes in August?
