The Miami Dolphins have a decision to make when it comes to the NFL Draft, one that will go a long way in defining the legacy of the Jon-Eric Sullivan/Jeff Hafley regime.
Miami is tracking toward a very high draft pick. Perhaps even No. 1. The 0-5 Dolphins, one of two winless teams in the NFL along with the Los Angeles Chargers entering their Week 7 game at the Jets, are prohibitive favorites to land the top overall pick with a 49 percent chance, according to ESPN. They have a 93 percent chance at a top-five pick.
It goes to say, with such a thin roster, GM Sullivan and coach Hafley cannot afford a swing and a miss on their first pick. Heck, even making contact is not enough. They have to hit this pick out of the park.
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And it starts with evaluation.
Fairly or not, Malik Willis has done little to show he is the quarterback the Dolphins can build around. The task would be difficult for any young, inexperienced quarterback on a team with so few weapons. But Willis has been largely ineffective through five games, near the bottom of the league in many categories and having thrown twice as many interceptions (4) as touchdown passes (2).
That said, everything the Dolphins do around the draft will be dictated by the collegiate quarterback class. And, so far, it's shaping up to be not the best year if you are looking for a franchise quarterback.
The quarterback class of 2027 was expected to be stocked. Suddenly, it is a bit uncertain. The two names everyone had at the top to start the season, Texas' Arch Manning and Oregon's Dante Moore, have faded. Manning has been deeply disappointing, though some always will be mesmerized by his tangibles and bloodlines, and Moore was injured in the fourth week of the season.
Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker is the biggest riser with several mock drafts have him being selected first or second, and most mocks put him in Miami.
Draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. has Mestemaker as the No. 1 QB and No. 2 player behind Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith. He believes the 20-year-old has a huge upside in many areas, including arm strength.
With half the of the regular season remaining, there is plenty of time for others to emerge, and that includes Manning and Moore regaining their footing.
Then there is Miami's Darian Mensah, Mississippi's Trinidad Chambliss, Notre Dame's CJ Carr, Missouri's (and former Pahokee star) Austin Simmons and USC's Jayden Maiava. This class may not have an iron-clad, can't-miss prospect, but it has the potential to be one of the deepest.
If the Dolphins are not absolutely certain they can find their QB1 of the future with a high pick, do they pass fearing drafting the next Cam Ward ... or Tua Tagovailoa for that matter?
And whatever the decision, the Dolphins will draft a quarterback in 2027. It just may not be in the first round.
With some believing Manning, Carr and even Mestemaker would benefit from one more year in college, Miami could target that foundational quarterback the next year.
Then what? Where do the Dolphins go if they decide to pass on a quarterback in the first round?
Do Dolphins pass on a QB and take Jeremiah Smith or Colin Simmons
That certainly will be a dilemma as the Dolphins are preparing for the April 29 draft. And they will have options. Some they may decide they cannot ignore.
Smith, the Ohio State receiver, is widely considered the best player in college football. Good enough to be the first pick. But the Dolphins would have to be all-in on Smith as a generational player if they have the first pick. Just three receivers have been selected No. 1 overall and none since the Jets took Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.
Or perhaps that player could be Texas' dominant edge rusher Colin Simmons. He is considered one of the most NFL-ready players in the draft and one who could be the anchor of Hafley's defense for many years.
Or, the answer could be none of the above - and the Dolphins receive an offer for the pick they cannot refuse. Typically that happens when multiple teams are desperate for a quarterback. If Miami has any doubt, the best move could be trading down and adding multiple picks.
The last team to trade the first overall selection was Chicago in 2023. The Bears acquired receiver DJ Moore and four picks from Carolina so the Panthers could draft QB Bryce Young. Those picks: Two firsts rounders and two seconds.
In 2016, the Titans received six picks — two firsts, two seconds, two thirds — from the Rams so they could take QB Jared Goff.
Even the second overall pick could command a nice haul. In 2025, Cleveland traded the second overall pick and a sixth rounder to Jacksonville, which used it to draft two-way star Travis Hunter. The Browns received two first rounders and a second.
Considering Sullivan and Hafley are just getting started with this rebuild, and every position on the Dolphins is a position of need, trading the pick may be the best option.
Tom D'Angelo is a senior sports columnist and reporter for The Palm Beach Post. He can be reached at tdangelo@pbpost.com.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: What should Dolphins do with first round pick? Here are their options
