With Republicans' southern red wall showing vulnerability, President Donald Trump will hold a rally in Fort Myers before enjoying his 29th sojourn to Palm Beach this term.
The president is expected back at his Mar-a-Lago residence on Friday, Oct. 23. It is not clear whether he will cast an in-person, early-voting ballot while at his Winter White House. But 1.6 million fellow Floridians have already voted, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
The rally in Southwest Florida capstones a week of barnstorming by Trump to states from Iowa to Kansas to the Carolinas. The Oct. 23 event is yet another Trump appearance in politically crimson territory.
The appearance comes as congressional races in the southern United States appear more competitive
than they have been in decades, dating as far back as Richard Nixon's watershed southern strategy in 1968.
"Just like that wall in the Midwest — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — it's not blue anymore, and it's a battleground, now I think the South is a battleground, too," said Jennifer Palmieri, a Democratic political advisor and podcaster.
Tight election contests abound, even in politically Trumpy Florida
In Trump's adopted home state of Florida, the widely followed Cook Political Report on Oct. 16 moved from toss-up to lean Democrat the contest in Congressional District 25, where Gov. Ron DeSantis redrew boundaries to favor his party's candidate against Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz.
The election analysis firm had also moved Florida's governor race to lean Republican on Sept. 30.
Lee County, home to the Alico Center where Trump will speak, borders Congressional District 22, which stretches east to the Palm Beaches. That's another seat where DeSantis altered boundary lines in the hope of increasing Republicans' Florida U.S. House delegation count. But GOP candidate Casey Askar, endorsed by Trump, is in a dogfight with Democrat Pia Dandiya.
State GOP officials remain bullish.
"Fighting Socialism not caving to it is getting things done," wrote Evan Power, the chair of the Republican Party of Florida, in an X.com post. Oct. 18 "We are going to win Florida big. And will continue to expose those that tried to divide us for the left."
Competitive races across U.S. south that GOP has dominated for decades
There are signs of in-the-balance races elsewhere across the American South.
On Oct. 20, Cook Political moved two more U.S. Senate races from likely Republican to lean Republican. One of those is in Mississippi, which has not elected a Democrat to upper chamber in more than four decades.
The other downgrade, in South Carolina, followed U.S. Sen. Darlene Graham's slipping in polls in the wake of missteps in public pronouncements and lackluster fundraising. The sister of the late U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, her struggles were further complicated this week with a deepening fracture between the Trump administration and Ukraine.
Reports that trillionaire Elon Musk arbitrarily disconnected Ukraine's military from his Starlink digital connection magnified the disagreement between Graham and Trump over the president's surging support for Russia in its invasion of its eastern Europe neighbor. It also further muddied Republicans' unity and closing message to voters.
Nonetheless, Trump joined Graham at a rally supporting her candidacy on Oct. 21 in northwestern South Carolina.
In addition, polls in two other southern state U.S. Senate races, Georgia and North Carolina, show GOP candidates trailing. In Texas, the Republican seeking the Senate seat, Ken Paxton, widely seen as a deeply flawed candidate, finds himself behind Democrat James Talarico.
Fundraising is another factor in midterm campaigning.
Overall, Republicans have enjoyed the advantage of having way more dollars at their disposal. Trump's MAGA Inc., which held another fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago Oct. 17, and Musk are reportedly prepared to spend more than $500 million combined in the remaining weeks before the Nov. 3 election.
Nonetheless, Trump's basement-dwelling approval rating has dragged Republican hopes. A Reuters/Ipsos survey issued Oct. 19 showed the president's approval at 31%.
Democrats have outgained Republicans in smaller-donor donations — with just over $2 billion to roughly $1.3 billion, according to one count — signaling a donor-enthusiasm gap between the two parties.
Palmieri's nationally heard podcast, "Long Play with Errin Haines," launched its second season Oct. 20 with a deep-dive episode into Florida's governor and U.S. Senate races. The two interviewed Republican Byron Donalds and Democrats Angie Nixon and David Jolly.
Palmieri noted issues with the cost of living, access to affordable health care and broad opposition to data-center developments are among the reasons voters in Florida and the broader American South are rethinking political party allegiances.
"It's really interesting time. People are ready for a new era," she said. "Whether they're Democrats or Republicans, they are open to voting for people that they have not voted for because it's, like, something's got to be different."
Voters across U.S. resisting efforts to intimidate them, researcher finds
Citing the more than 18 million votes already cast nationally, David Becker, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research, said the U.S. electorate is again demonstrating that attempts to hamper, discourage or intimidate voters are proving unsuccessful.
"It's very true that they have run out of tools. They have failed on everything," Becker said of the Trump administration's efforts to undermine mail-in voting and election laws that facilitate the widespread casting of ballots by the citizenry.
"And they continue to fail, as Americans find the voting process despite all the noise to be safe, convenient, secure, easy, satisfying."
Becker also said allegations and accusations of noncitizen voting in past elections again are showing meager numbers that fail to demonstrate that any election has been affected to any meaningful degree.
In Florida, charges were filed in September against 20 people who authorities say were not eligible to register or cast a vote in the 2024 elections, in which 6 million people voted.
"What I'm seeing right now seems to indicate that if these kind of desperate attempts to influence the election are intended to depress turnout, it appears they're failing," he said.
Frankel says Trump visits raise security concerns for South Florida
Trump's visit this weekend to Palm Beach is expected to conclude Oct. 25, according to federal aviation flight restriction alerts. Trump's Congressional representative, U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, said the president should rethink his frequent trips here for his safety and that of his fellow residents of the Palm Beaches.
“We have to keep the president safe,” she said. “He is really under threat. “
Frankel, a West Palm Beach Democrat, shared her thoughts on the presidential stays at an Oct. 20 news conference, where she was asked about the Federal Aviation Administration’s decision to extend flight restrictions around Mar-a-Lago for an additional year.
Given the gravity of the threats — the president was targeted for assassination at his Trump International Golf Club near West Palm Beach two years ago — she questioned his decision to travel so frequently to South Florida, where she said his presence creates security risks for the whole region.
“It probably would be better if he stayed in Washington, because every time he comes here, we’re all under threat,” she said.
Reporting by Andrew Marra of the Palm Beach Post was used in this story.
Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: GOP southern wall exposed in Georgia, NC, Texas as Trump rallies Fla
