A leading hurricane forecast is betting large on asleepy tropical Atlantic through Sept. 1 but isn’t promising a total strikeout as hurricaneprediction models home in on a buzzy wave leaving Africa next week.
Colorado State University, which issues two-week forecasts through the peak of hurricane season, predicts there is a 70% chance of below normal tropical activity into the beginning of next month with a 28% chance of near-normal activity.
There is just a 2% chance of abovenormal activity according to the forecast released Wednesday, Aug. 19.
At the same time, AccuWeather reduced its overall number of named storms that are expected this season, dropping it from an original prediction of 11 to 16 named storms to eight to 11, including three to four
hurricanes.
AccuWeather’s new forecast includes the three storms that have already come and gone. That means five to eight more named storms for the remainder of the season through Nov. 30.
Both forecasts noted the building El Niño, which now has a 69% of becoming a “historic event” that would surpass the strength of previous El Niños dating back to 1950.
El Niño Climate patterns occur during periodic warmings of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warmer sea surface temperatures change where thunderstorms form, shifting upper air patterns so that hurricane shredding wind shear roars through the long runway where storms develop between Africa and the Caribbean.
"That gives us greater confidence in lowering the total number of named storms, but it does not eliminate the risk of a damaging hurricane strike in the United States," said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva in a statement. "It only takes one storm to define a hurricane season."
What is the latest hurricane forecast for late August?
Phil Klotzbach, CSU hurricane researcher and lead author of its seasonal forecasts, said he had originally given even lower chances to a near normal amount of activity during the two week period beginning Aug. 19.
But he increased it slightly after forecast models began sniffing around a tropical wave that is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the next seven days or so.
The Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropics Hazard Outlook is showing an area in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles with between a 20% and 40% chance of formation between Aug. 26 and Sept. 8.
The National Hurricane Center had no areas highlighted for possible development over the next seven days as of Aug. 19.
With just three named storms this year — tropical storms Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal — the season has fallen behind the average formation dates for storms and hurricanes.
What is the average date for the season's first major hurricane?
The fourth named storm typically forms by Aug. 15 with the first hurricane forming by Aug. 11. The average date for the season’s first major hurricane is Sept. 1.
Michael Lowry, a hurricane expert with WPLG Channel 10 in Miami, said that’s no reason to let your guard down. He noted in a column Wednesday that the most sluggish hurricane seasons with El Niño present still had hurricanes.
“We’ve never gone through an entire hurricane season in the reliable records without a hurricane, and the last time we recorded fewer than two hurricanes in a season was over a century ago in 1925,” said Lowry, cautioning that the 1925 storm count was likely higher than recorded because there were no satellites and a lack of ocean observations.
CSU will issue its next two week forecast on Sept. 2. The peak of hurricane season runs from about mid-August through mid-October when the waters in the tropical Atlantic are warmest and the waves are rolling off Africa looking for a break in wind shear or Saharan dust that will allow them a foothold to grow.
Klotzbach is already wary about the 2027 hurricane season. An El Niño pattern leads to sinking air over the Atlantic, which tends to evaporate clouds and allows more warming sunshine to hit the ocean’s surface. Warmer water acts as fuel to tropical cyclones.
“Next year should be a lot more interesting with El Niño gone and a likely very warm Atlantic,” Klotzbach said. “Even now, the Atlantic main development region is pretty toasty.”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane season is quiet but a new tropical wave has models buzzing
