The National Hurricane Center has issued a special update to its tropical weather forecastnoting a budding system in the far off Atlantic that is trying earn a name.
The clot of showers and thunderstorms was first noted in the 8 a.m. advisory on Sept. 18 and given a 30% chance of formation over seven days. That jumped to 60% over the next 48 hours in the special forecast that came out at 10:30 a.m.
Forecasters noted that the system, which is no threat to the U.S., is mustering organization.
"In addition, it appears that a well-defined center is developing. If these current trends continue, a tropical depression could form as soon as later this afternoon," the NHC said.
To earn a name, the depression would have to reach sustained wind speeds of at
least 39 mph. The next name on the 2026 hurricane list is Fay followed by Gonzalo.
In a record slow hurricane season that has yet to see a hurricane, the distant system is mostly novelty. It is expected to move slowly over the next several days remaining to the southwest of the Azores.
While AccuWeather had hinted of something forming in the Gulf from an area of low pressure approaching Florida this weekend, Colorado State University is forecasting another two weeks of below normal tropical activity.
A CSU forecast released Wednesday that goes through Sept. 29 says there is a 78% chance of a less active period in the tropics and a 20% chance of near-normal activity. There is only a 2% chance of above normal activity.
The prediction considers the lack of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin currently, and the low chance of development for the one area the NHC is watching east of Bermuda. It also looks at the location of the globe-trotting Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is not in a favorable spot for Atlantic tropical activity until the very end of the month.
And even if it gains ground in then, any tropical cyclone that tries to form will have to fight through terminal wind shear.
"The year without much of a hurricane season continues," said FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross in his daily forecast.
The 2026 hurricane season has had five tropical storms but no hurricanes, making it an underachiever on every major measure. A normal hurricane season has nine named storms through Sept. 16 and four hurricanes. Normal accumulated cyclone energy, which is a measure of storm strength and longevity is 72. This year it's 4.4.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: In slow hurricane season a surprise would-be Fay tries to form in the Atlantic
