President Donald Trump's low approval rating is enough to raise alarms for Republicans in the midterm elections this fall. But new polls show a majority of voters are opting for Democrats on a generic ballot.
Trump has bemoaned the pattern of ruling parties performing poorly in the midterm elections, which is seen as a referendum on the presidency. Trump's average approval rating is worse today than the same point in his first term, and NPR reported Trump has done more travel related to the midterm races in 2016 than in 2018.
This year's math may be different, after a Trump-backed plan to redraw Congressional maps in Texas to add more Republican-leaning seats prompted a nationwide redistricting scurry. Several states, both Democratic and Republican,
have changed their maps, but Republicans netted out with more seats to potentially pick up, according to The New York Times.
But pollsters found that voters' enthusiasm and intention lean Democratic. See the latest polls and what seats might flip.
What are the toss-up House midterm races? One is in Florida
According to The Cook Political Report, there are 18 races qualified as toss-ups. They are in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.
It also lists the race for Florida's newly drawn 25th Congressional District, which now covers the coast from Miami Beach to Delray Beach, as a toss-up. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz of the 23rd District has announced he will run for the seat, which was created to lean Republican, the Miami Herald reported.
Emerson College Polling: Dems have 11-point advantage
An Emerson College Polling survey found 53% of Americans were more likely to vote Democratic in a generic 2026 congressional ballot, compared to 42% voting Republican. The poll was conducted July 19-20 among a sample of 1,100 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
“Driving the Democrats’ significant lead on the ballot are women voters, who break for the Democratic candidate by a 27-point margin, 56% to 39%, while men are more split: 49% support the Democrat and 44% the Republican,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release.
The poll gave Trump a 39% job approval rating, compared to 57% who disapproved, the changes not statistically significant from last month's poll.
Fox News poll: Democrats are more motivated to vote
A Fox News Poll conducted with Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Co. Research (R) found 68% of Democrats are extremely motivated to vote in November compared to 57% of Republicans. The poll was conducted July 17-20 among 1,003 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The poll respondents were also more likely to say Democrats could better handle several issues, including the economy and inflation, issues Trump ran on in 2024. The two parties were closer on government spending and national security, while Republicans still hold the advantage on crime.
When asked if the election was held today, 53% of voters would back their Democratic candidate in the House race, compared to 46% who would vote Republican. Fox News said 53% is the highest percentage received by either party in their generic House ballot polls since 1996.
"Although these data look promising for the Democrats, some of their support is in less-contested districts, padding their national totals without adding House seats," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who works with Democrat Chris Anderson to conduct Fox News polls, according to the outlet. "The best estimates I’ve seen suggest the GOP could retain the House even if the Democrats win the national vote by 2-3 points, but if Democrats win by 6-7 points, they probably take the House."
Trump has a 39% approval rating according to this poll, unchanged for the third month in a row and within the margin of error of his career low of 38% reached in October 2017.
What is Donald Trump's approval rating?
Trump's approval rating has been net negative for more than a year and fluctuating since. Many polls showed Trump hitting his worst marks for this term around the end of May 2026 and leveling out since then. Here is Trump's average approval rating as of July 27, according to aggregators:
- RealClearPolitics Poll Average: 40.9% approve, 57.5% disapprove
- New York Times: 39% approve, 59% disapprove
- Silver Bulletin: 39.1% approve, 58.1% disapprove
Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at KCrowley@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X (Twitter), Threads, Bluesky and TikTok.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Which House races are toss-ups in the midterms? One is in FL
