El Paso could be in for a colder, wetter winter as a strengthening El Niño pattern takes hold across the Pacific.
El Niño continues to intensify, with forecasters predicting a greater than 83% chance that strong to very strong El Niño conditions will persist through January to March 2027, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
During an El Niño pattern, cooler temperatures and above-average precipitation are typical in the southwestern United States, including West Texas and southern New Mexico, as winter storms follow a more southerly track across the country.
While the weather pattern could increase the chances of rain, snow and colder conditions in the Borderland, forecasters caution that seasonal trends do
not guarantee specific weather events.
Here's what to know about how El Niño could impact El Paso and the rest of the Borderland.
What temperatures and rainfall are expected through December?
October is likely to be wetter than normal for El Paso, Southern New Mexico and the rest of Texas, according to an outlook released Sept. 30 by the National Weather Service.
When it comes to temperatures, forecasters predict an equal chance of a cooler or warmer October.
NOAA's seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook, issued Sept. 17, provides additional insight into what El Pasoans can expect during the final three months of 2026.
The temperature outlook shows equal chances of above-normal, near-normal or below-normal temperatures across much of southern New Mexico and West Texas, including the El Paso region.
That means forecasters are not favoring one temperature category over another for the October-through-December period.
The precipitation outlook is more encouraging for the Borderland, showing a slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation across portions of New Mexico and West Texas.
Still, the outlook does not predict specific rainfall amounts, individual storms or snowfall totals.
Will El Paso see snow?
While it is too early to predict whether El Paso will see snowfall this winter, a strengthening El Niño could influence the region's weather by bringing additional storm systems across the southwestern United States.
Natassia Paloma may be reached at npaloma@gannett.com, @NatassiaPaloma on X, natassia_paloma on Instagram, and Natassia Paloma on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: Will El Paso get snow this winter? El Niño forecast offers clues
