New Mexico could be in for a snowier-than-normal winter, with the strongest chances for above-average snowfall early and late in the season, according to a newly released winter weather outlook.
OpenSnow, a weather forecasting service geared toward skiers and snowboarders, released the outlook as forecasters increasingly point to El Niño as a major factor shaping the 2026-27 winter season.
According to OpenSnow, historical trends favor a wetter and snowier winter across New Mexico, including the Taos area.
“A potentially historic super El Niño played a major role in shaping the outlook,” the website states. “Forecasters primarily examined previous strong and super El Niño winters with similar Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature patterns, along
with other atmospheric and oceanic signals and seasonal forecast models.”
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of developing into a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27, according to the National Weather Service in an Aug. 13 update.
Despite the increased potential for snow in New Mexico, OpenSnow cautions that long-range winter forecasts still come with considerable uncertainty.
“Atmospheric conditions can change significantly, and many factors that influence snowfall cannot be reliably predicted months—or even weeks—in advance,” the website states.
So what could El Niño mean for New Mexico and Texas, including the El Paso area?
Here’s what forecasters are predicting for the upcoming winter.
2026 winter snow forecast
Equatorial sea surface temperatures are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and El Niño continues to strengthen. There is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27, the Climate Prediction Center said in August.
Similarly, forecasters at OpenSnow said El Niño conditions have been underway in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since June 2026, with growing confidence that the event could become a “very strong” or “super” El Niño, potentially challenging historical records for sea surface temperature anomalies.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has also released its seasonal outlook for November through January. The forecast shows near-normal temperatures favored across parts of West Texas and New Mexico, while precipitation is leaning above normal across the region.
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El Niño can have a significant impact on winter weather patterns, particularly across the southern United States. However, forecasters cannot yet say exactly how much rain or snow individual areas will receive.
USA TODAY contributed to this story.
Natassia Paloma may be reached at npaloma@gannett.com, @NatassiaPaloma on X, natassia_paloma on Instagram, and Natassia Paloma on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: Winter snow forecast map shows where El Niño could bring more snow
