Texas heads into the fall campaign season with agovernor's race that looks more competitive than any in a generation.
Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term, leads Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in most polls taken this summer, but by margins narrow enough that Texas Democrats see an opening they have not had since 1994.
However, there is a catch. Summer polling has been wrong before, and both parties know the real campaign is only going to heat up from here.
"Ultimately, summer polling is speculative. It's a snapshot in time and not a prediction of what's actually going to happen," Joshua Blank said. "It tells us where the electorate is as the race is starting to form and get underway, but not necessarily where the electorate is going to end
up."
Blank, the research director at the University of Texas Politics Project, said voters who have kept the races at arm's length are beginning to tune in as they gather information ahead of Nov. 3.
Here is where the race stands, who the candidates are, and what to watch between now and Election Day on Nov. 3.
Who is Gov. Greg Abbott?
Born and raised in Wichita Falls, Abbott has been instrumental in passing key Republican legislation — such as the school voucher and the redistricting map — during his tenure as governor.
Abbott has also helped the Republican Party hold what is known as the trifecta, with the GOP holding the governor, lieutenant governor, and state speaker of the House seats during his time, while also maintaining the party's control over every statewide political and judicial court.
This cycle, Abbott spent much of his time focusing on the Texas Senate race — bolstering Attorney General Ken Paxton — while working to keep Republicans in control heading into the next legislative session.
Blank said this reflects where the party sees its real risk.
"The Senate race is clearly the more competitive race, and Abbott, as the de facto leader of the state party, does not want to see a situation in which Texas Republicans lose their first statewide race in over 20 years," Blank said.
But Blank said Abbott enters the races with a near-unlimited supply of resources to bolster his race and others — a hurdle Democrats must overcome.
Key platforms/initiatives
Abbott's key initiatives are:
- Taxes and affordability
- Border security
- Texas values and economy
Who is Gina Hinojosa?
Gina has deep ties to Texas and the state's Democratic Party, having been born in McAllen, Texas — a border city in the southernmost part of the state — to Gilberto and Cynthia Hinojosa. Texans might recognize the name Gilberto Hinojosa, who served as chair of the state's Democratic Party from 2012 to 2025.
She entered politics after being elected to the Austin school board in 2012, when her son's public school was threatened with closure, and won a Texas House seat covering central Austin in 2016.
As a Democrat in a Republican-controlled state, her bills in the Texas House rarely become law without a Republican co-sponsor or amendments and compromises. Her most visible influence comes through her opposition to the state's school voucher program and the Republicans' partisan redistricting.
In this election, Hinojosa has made education — the platform that got her elected to her state House seat in 2016 — a focus, while also attacking Abbott and Republicans over data centers and their flip-flop from allowing them in to trying to regulate them.
Her biggest challenge as Kirby Goidel, the Texas A&M political science professor, heading into fall is that much of the state still does not know who she is. Roughly a third of Texas voters told the Texas A&M/Texas Pulse Aug. 7 poll they had no opinion of her.
"It's hard to win an election when a third of the voters don't know who you are, so you have to become known," Goidel said. "But that also means defining yourself in favorable terms and in terms that can make you an electable statewide candidate."
But it also carries the risk that the Republican Party and Abbott will define her in a more negative light.
Key platforms/initiatives
Hinojosa's key initiatives are:
- Public education
- Affordabiltiy
- Regulating data centers
Can Hinojosa flip Texas blue?
Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994 and have not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1900.
Blank said conditions this year are favorable for Democrats but may still not be enough.
"As ripe as this situation is for Democrats, it's still the case that most voters in Texas hold negative views of the Democratic Party, and even with these advantages, they're still trailing in the polls before these same Republicans unleash their significant campaign war chests," Blank said.
Goidel summed up the state of the race as he doesn't see many signs of Democratic strength, but rather many signs of Democratic potential.
Key dates for Texas voters
- Last day to register: Oct. 5.
- Mail ballot application deadline: Oct. 23.
- Early voting: Oct. 19 to 30.
- Election Day: Nov. 3.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: Texas governor's race heads into fall closer than any since 1994
