Who will be in the Open Division?
It’s a question that’s being debated every Friday night (at the very least) now that Florida High School Athletic Association is introducing the eight-team super bracket for the 2026 playoffs.
Most high school football teams in Florida have now passed the quarter-season mark, so we do have something of a sample size to work with.
Let’s go ahead and try to project what the Open Division will look like.
Just to be clear, this is not an exercise of saying who we think are the top eight teams in Florida. Sadly, that’s not how the Open Division teams will be decided.
This is an exercise of trying to predict how the rest of the season will play out as well as how the MaxPreps rankings will play out.
The latter is a tough
challenge, especially since MaxPreps doesn’t say how their rankings are determined. We’re heading into Week 4 recognizing that there was clear human input on Carol City’s preseason ranking (which makes sense), while Booker — which doesn’t even have a varsity football team this season — is somehow currently ranked No. 50 in Florida and No. 6 in Class 3A (which makes no sense).
The current MaxPreps Open Division teams are St. Thomas Aquinas, West Boca, Chaminade-Madonna, Columbus, American Heritage, Miami Central, Cardinal Newman and Cardinal Mooney.
So, what will the computer say after Week 11? No clue. But it’s worth guessing that winning helps and losing hurts. Strength of schedule also matters.
So, what you won’t see in the Open Division projection is teams who probably will run the table don’t play enough quality opponents to be in the final eight. We’re also shying away from teams who either currently have two losses or teams who could end up with a pair of losses.
All that being said, here’s an Open Division projection heading into Week 4.
(Teams are listed in alphabetical order.)
Carol City
The Chiefs are incredibly talented, but losing to Lee County (Ga.) in Week 2 after being up 12 points at halftime could create issues later on. Carol City’s remaining schedule includes Grayson (Georgia), Miami Northwestern and Miami Central.
Carrollwood Day
The Week 1 domination of Eau Gallie was eye-opening. All the Patriots have done is outscore their opponents 162-7. If Carrollwood Day gets through October unscathed (home games against Trinity Christian and St. Peterburg Catholic and a road trip to Cardinal Newman), it should be in.
Chaminade-Madonna
The Lions lost to Sierra-Canyon (California) and they still have games against St. Thomas Aquinas and Cardinal Newman remaining. A win over Aquinas would all but clinch an Open Division spot. Even if Chaminade loses to Aquinas, it probably won't hurt them in the rankings. If they lose to Aquinas and Cardinal Newman? That might be a different story.
Columbus/Miami Palmetto winner
This won’t be popular but hear me out. The Week 4 showdown will be crucially important for both teams’ chances. If Columbus wins out, it will almost certainly be in the Open Division. Would a two-loss Columbus team be in the mix? Yes, but it’s less of a sure thing. This is Miami Palmetto’s best team since 2020, but it will need to beat Columbus from a strength of schedule perspective.
Miami Central
The Rockets would be in right now, but there are some huge games left on the schedule. Defending national champion Buford in Georgia in Week 4 will tell a lot. Rival Miami Northwestern and Carol City remain, too. Losing one of those probably won’t be crushing. Two losses will be interesting.
St. Thomas Aquinas
Does the No. 1 team in the country need a lot of explanation? The interesting thing is the next four games all provide different challenges. In addition to playing at Chaminade-Madonna on Oct. 2, the Raiders have Dillard, Archbishop McCarthy and McArthur coming up.
Venice
The argument could be made that no team did more in the first three weeks to position themselves for an Open Division spot than Venice. Overtime wins at Rabun Gap (Georgia) and Lakeland are resume headliners. If Venice beats Raines on Oct. 2, you can pretty much lock this in.
West Boca
The Bulls opened the season with a dominant performance at American Heritage and will have plenty of chances to boost the resume with Cardinal Newman, St. John’s (Washington D.C.) and The First Academy remaining. One loss probably wouldn’t be an issue. Two might be.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Projecting the FHSAA Open Division football field after Week 3
