Detroit Lions insider Dave Birkett breaks down the Week 1 matchup against the Saints and gives his prediction.
New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
The coaches: Lions − Dan Campbell (53-43-1 overall, 48-36-1 with Lions); Saints − Kellen Moore (6-11 overall, 6-11 with Saints).
Last game (2025 season): Lions beat the Chicago Bears, 19-16; Saints lost to the Atlanta Falcons, 19-17.
Last meeting: Dec. 3, 2023: Lions won, 33-28.
Key matchups
Lions RT Blake Miller vs. Saints OLB Carl Granderson
The Lions threw a lot of resources into their offensive line this offseason, signing Cade Mays (who’s currently injured) to start at center and drafting Miller in the first round. Miller had an up-and-down training camp. He struggled against Aidan Hutchinson, but played well in preseason games. Granderson should
start at left outside linebacker with Cam Jordan out. He had six sacks last season for a Saints team that finished fifth in the NFL in sack percentage. Campbell said he’s not looking for Miller to be perfect against a good pass rush Sunday, but the Lions are counting on Miller to help keep Jared Goff clean.
Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Lions CB D.J. Reed
Olave doesn’t get enough credit as one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he’s topped 1,000 yards receiving in three of his four NFL seasons and is Tyler Shough’s go-to target in the pass game. The Lions have a lot of question marks in their secondary, but Reed had a nice summer after slumping down the stretch in his return from a hamstring injury last year. The Saints are thin at receiver after Olave, so this should be confidence-building performance for the Lions' pass defense heading into next week’s showdown with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Saints run defense
The Lions are at their best offensively when they play off a strong running game, and after slipping to 14th in the NFL in rushing last season, they seem poised to rebound this fall. Jahmyr Gibbs will get the bulk of the work at running back. He topped 20 carries just once last season and has gone past that mark only five times in his career. The Lions may not overload Gibbs in Week 1, but new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing said he wants to emphasize the things that make the offense dynamic, and Gibbs is at the top of that list.
The Saints finished 19th in the NFL against the run last season and allowed 120 or more yards rushing nine times. Kaden Elliss, the son of former Lions defensive end Luther Elliss, returns to anchor New Orleans’ defense after three seasons in Atlanta, but the Saints lost top linebacker Demario Davis in free agency and will be without Jordan up front.
∎ Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Saints pass defense
If all goes according to plan, the Lions should have one of the best passing games in the NFL this fall. Amon-Ra St. Brown is trying to become the fourth receiver in NFL history with four straight years of at least 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jameson Williams is coming off the best training camp of his life. Sam LaPorta is back healthy after missing half of last season with a back injury. Gibbs is a weapon as a receiver, and Goff is responsible for spreading the wealth.
The Lions’ reconfigured offensive line will have its hands full with New Orleans’ pass rush, but communication shouldn’t be as a big of an issue at Ford Field as it was in a Week 1 road loss to the Green Bay Packers last year. Christian Mahogany is expected to start at left guard, but Ben Bartch also could see playing time at the position.
Goff spent one season practicing against second-year Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s defense with the Los Angeles Rams in 2020. Historically, Staley has favored a three-man line and two-high safety looks. Chase Young had a career-high 10 sacks last season, but the Saints are young in their secondary.
∎ Edge: Lions
Saints run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Saints signed Travis Etienne to bolster their 28th-ranked rushing attack, and coach Kellen Moore indicated Alvin Kamara also will be ready to play after he was limited in practice this week by a knee injury. Etienne averaged a career-best 2.1 yards after contact last season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, according to the Pro Football Reference. Gibbs, for comparison, averaged 1.7 yards after contact in 2025. Lions coach Dan Campbell, a former Saints assistant, praised New Orleans’ offensive line this week and called veteran Eric McCoy “a difference-maker at center.”
The Lions had a middle-of-the-pack run defense last season at 114.5 rushing yards allowed per game, but they should be better at the defensive tackle position this year with Alim McNeill healthy and Tyleik Williams in his second season. Jack Campbell finished second in the NFL in tackles and was a first-team All-Pro last season, when the Lions defense was prone to allowing big plays.
∎ Edge: Lions
Saints pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Shough showed promise after taking over as the Saints’ starting quarterback midway through last year. He completed 67.6% of his passes, threw one interception in New Orleans’ final four games, and led two fourth-quarter comebacks.
The Saints aren’t deep at receiver. They lost first-round pick Jordan Tyson to a hamstring injury in training camp and have two Day 3 rookie draft picks in their playing rotation. But tight end Juwan Johnson gives Shough a second reliable target to go with Olave. Kamara is a weapon out of the backfield, and Moore is a creative play caller.
The Lions finished 20th against the pass last year and don’t have many playmakers in their secondary with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch still returning from injuries. They won’t make many mistakes in the back end, though, and Aidan Hutchinson appears to finally have some pass-rushing help up front.
∎ Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions have consistently fielded one of the NFL’s best special teams units since Dave Fipp took over as coordinator in 2021. Jack Fox is a field-flipping weapon as a punter, the Lions are aggressive taking extra yards on returns, and Campbell hinted more fakes could be in the works this year when he said the Lions were “getting back to … what we’re about” and mentioned “cutting it loose more on special teams.” Tom Kennedy performed well in his cameo as a return man last year, but there are concerns about the field goal unit with Jake Bates coming off a choppy summer.
The Saints were atrocious on special teams last year. They allowed two blocked punts, gave up a long punt return touchdown, had the NFL’s worst field goal percentage (71.43%) and finished 31st in special teams DVOA. The Saints signed new specialists this year in punter Ryan Wright and kicker Daniel Carlson, so there’s reason for optimism. But there’s no data yet to suggest this year will be any different.
∎ Edge: Lions
Prediction
There's lots of optimism in New Orleans after the Saints won four of five to close last season with a rookie quarterback, but all of those wins came against teams with losing records, and I still see a roster that doesn't compare to the one the Lions will put on the field. The Lions have their own question marks heading into the season, including an undermanned secondary and an offensive line that might need some time to jell. But I think Gibbs and Hutchinson have big openers, and the Lions cruise in the end.
∎ Pick: Lions 31, Saints 20.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Lions hold the edge in every matchup with Saints. But will they open season with a win?
