Ready or not, game week is here.
After an offseason of turnover that includes a new head coach, two new coordinators, just one returning position coach who's coached a regular season game in Ann Arbor, more than a dozen transfers in, more than 20 transfers out and two dozen new freshmen, Michigan football is ready to begin its journey in the Kyle Whittingham era.
The offense is expected to be more potent, with an attack that's proven consistent under offensive coordinator Jason Beck. The defense is expected to be multiple, with defensive coordinator Jay Hill bringing in a new scheme that frequently mixes and matches various looks.
While the running back room appears loaded, the wide receivers seem improved and the defensive line has been said to
be the strength of the team, much of this season will come down to the development of quarterback Bryce Underwood. It's a daunting schedule for the Wolverines that includes four games against preseason top-10 foes and six of 12 games against teams that enter the season ranked in the top 25, but it's a challenge U-M is prepared to embrace.
Here's a game-by-game prediction for Michigan football's 2026 regular season:
Sept. 5: Western Michigan Broncos
This isn't the usual tune up against a MAC team. The Broncos won the Mid American Conference last season and are again the favorites to do so under coach Lance Taylor (remember that name, he's a rising star in the sport). But the Wolverines simply have too much talent for this to be a true scare at any point. All eyes are on Underwood, but it's the ground game that steals the show as U-M runs for more than 250 yards and he, Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter all get in the end zone
The pick: U-M 37, WMU 16 (1-0).
Sept. 12: Oklahoma Sooners
If Ohio State wasn't playing Texas in a top-five matchup, this would be ESPN's "College GameDay" choice. As it is, Fox "Big Noon Kickoff" will be on hand for a big-time matchup between two teams that are expected to be on the fringe of the College Football Playoff. Last year, OU's win was the difference in the Sooners getting in and the Wolverines missing out. U-M will play better than a season ago, but John Mateer presented problems last year for Michigan and will do so again. On the other side, Brent Venables shows why his defensive scheme is one of the most difficult to dissect. The Underwood chatter gets a bit louder after this one after he throws a pick in the fourth quarter on a key drive.
The pick (1-1): Oklahoma 27, Michigan 23
Sept. 19: University of Texas-El Paso Miners
UTEP is 5-19 the past two years, has won four or fewer games in seven straight seasons and won just two last year. Now, the Miners have moved from Conference USA to the Mountain West, but their roster isn't up to that league's standard, let alone the Big Ten's. Michigan gets its mojo back moving into conference play as the defense flexes its muscle, forcing three turnovers and recording six sacks, which includes 2½ from John Henry Daley. The offense simply runs over a defense that can't hang.
The pick (2-1): U-M 51, UTEP 6
Sept. 26: Iowa Hawkeyes
The Big Ten schedule arrives and brings with it the second ranked matchup of the year. This figures to be a standard Iowa team: one that won't beat itself, will be elite on defense under coordinator Phil Parker, but lacks explosion on the attack. It's the Hawkeyes' first trip to Ann Arbor since 2019, and it's not a place the program has won frequently, with U-M owning a 13-4 record in the matchup at home dating back to the Bo Schembechler days. It's not a masterpiece, but Michigan puts together a sound game plan and has timely special teams plays to pull away.
The pick (3-1): U-M 26, Iowa 16
Oct. 3: at Minnesota Golden Gophers
For the first time all season, Michigan leaves the comfort of home and does so against a team that's frequently decent but rarely elite. Quarterback Drake Lindsey is a big part of what the Gophers want to do, and his success is directly correlated to Minnesota's: PJ Fleck's team was 5-0 he completed 65% or more of his passes last year. He has more weapons in Perry Johnson (Auburn) and Noah Jennings (Cincinnati), and the offensive line is a veteran group. But an offense that was No. 129 in the sport last year won't take a big enough leap to overcome U-M. Andrew Marsh and JJ Buchanan both score, and for the first time, Underwood scores three touchdowns against a Big Ten opponent. The Little Brown Jug stays in Ann Arbor.
The pick (4-1): U-M 31, Minnesota 20
Oct. 17: Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State will likely enter this game off a loss at USC, while Michigan will have had a chance to refresh with a bye week. The Nittany Lions should be improved after hiring Iowa State coach Matt Campbell, who brought in more than a dozen of his best players (24 in total), including veteran quarterback Rocco Becht, who has 9,200 passing yards and 64 touchdowns in his career. PSU is a trendy CFP pick, but mostly because it only has two truly tough games, including this one in Ann Arbor. This is U-M's first real close win of the season and a signature moment for Underwood.
The pick (5-1): U-M 26, Penn State 23
Oct 24: Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan will have already played three good to very good teams, but this is the first matchup against the truly elite. Curt Cignetti's Indiana Hoosiers, fresh off a national title, come to town with some new faces but remain equally loaded. IU added quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU), wide receiver Andrew Marsh (Michigan State), running back Turbo Richard (Boston College), offensive lineman Joe Brunner (Wisconsin) and corner A.J. Harris (Penn State) to mention just a handful of 17 additions via the portal. In case people haven't caught on, this isn't your father's Indiana. Michigan should get a semi-tired IU squad that comes off a game against Ohio State, but Cignetti's teams can't be overlooked.
The pick (5-2): Indiana 30, U-M 23
Oct. 31: at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Michigan has just four road games, and this Halloween matchup is just the second of the bunch (that get much harder the rest of the way). Greg Schiano has brought Rutgers out of the depths of the sport into respectability, but nobody is mistaking this for a good team. Last year, the Scarlet Knights were horrendous on defense, ranking No. 129 against the rush (209.9 yards per game), No. 125 in overall (432.8), No. 115 in scoring (31.8 points per game), No. 133 in sacks (0.92 per game) and No. 120 in the red zone. There's questions on offense, too, namely who will be quarterback: AJ Surace or Dylan Lonergan.? It really doesn't make a difference in this one.
The pick (6-2): U-M 38, Rutgers 16
Nov. 7: Michigan State Spartans
By this point, the weather will have started to turn for the first of two major rivalries. MSU comes to town, a matchup the Wolverines have dominated recently, winning four straight games by an average of more than 22 points per game (though the past two have both been by less than two touchdowns). The Spartans sound rejuvenated under new coach Pat Fitzgerald, but by having been out of the game, he didn't have the benefit so many other coaches have when they take over a new program by bringing a handful of starters who know the scheme with him. There's simply not enough talent to hang with the Wolverines who run their way to a fifth straight rivalry win.
The pick (7-2): U-M 34, MSU 17
Nov. 14: at Oregon Ducks
The vibes that were high after a rivalry thrashing come crashing down in a hurry. Michigan has struggled historically traveling west and as much has held true in recent years, losing 27-17 to Washington in 2024 and 31-13 at USC in 2025. Yes, it's a new staff, so those results are more or less irrelevant, but Oregon is a notably tougher test than U-M has seen outside of Oklahoma in sometime. Quarterback Dante Moore (from Detroit King) is on the Heisman shortlist, Evan Stewart is one of the best wideouts in the country, and the defense could have four of the 10 best players in the conference, led by safety Koi Perich and edge Matayo Uiagalelei. That's not to mention four five-star freshmen who should impact the team. Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest venues in the country, and U-M will be reminded of why that is.
The pick (7-3): Oregon 37, Michigan 24
Nov. 21: UCLA Bruins
Michigan has to get off the mat and dust itself off against a UCLA team, now led by coach Bob Chesney, that should be much improved. This is a bit of a trap game, given where it falls on the schedule between the two toughest matchups of the year, but the Wolverines won't be caught off guard on senior day. Michigan has waited to welcome one of the SoCal schools to Ann Arbor weather in late November, which should be at best 40 degrees and could have some level of elements in the mix, and this staff will be licking its chops to line up and run, run and run some more. Marshall and Hiter continue their stellar campaigns with four combined touchdowns.
The pick (8-3): U-M 31, UCLA 17
Nov. 28: at Ohio State Buckeyes
Michigan needs a win at Ohio State for even an outside shot at the College Football Playoff and goes down there thinking it can do just that given the fact it's won the past two meetings in Columbus, including an all-time stunner in 2024. The Buckeyes enter the season as the nation's No. 1 team but have an even tougher schedule than Michigan, with matchups on the road against Texas, Indiana and USC before hosting Oregon. Even if OSU drops a few games (the Buckeyes have lost more than two regular season games just once since 2005), this is one it always has circled and it will matter for CFP seeding.
The pick (8-4): OSU 27, U-M 19
Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: What's the record? Game-by-game predictions for Michigan football in 2026
