Free Press sports writer Chris Solari previews the Michigan State football homecoming game against Big Ten foe Illinois on Saturday, Oct. 10.
Fast facts
Matchup: Michigan State (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) vs. Illinois (2-3, 0-2)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 10; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.
TV/radio: FS1, WJR-AM (760).
Line: Illini by 2½.
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Michigan State football vs Illinois availability report
(As of Thursday, per BigTen.org)
MSU
Out: LB Caleb Wheatland, CB Tyran Chappell, CB NiJhay Burt, CB Keshawn Williams, RB Cam Edwards, FB Jay Coyne, OL Tristan Comer, TE Joe Caudill. Doubtful: RB Darrin Jones Jr. Questionable: LB Jordan Hall, CB Tre Bell, QB Cam Fancher.
Illinois
Out:
RB Ca’Lil Valentine, WR Alex Perry, LB Jack Parris, DL Carter Smith, OL TJ McMillen, TE BJ Thurman. Doubtful: DB Tywan Cox, OL Kai Pritchard, OL Dezmond Schuster. Questionable: OL Champ Smith. Probable: WR Jayshon Platt.
Scouting report
When MSU has the ball: The Spartans’ disjointed offense hit bottom in last week’s 31-3 loss at Wisconsin, a third straight defeat. After scoring a single touchdown against both Notre Dame and Nebraska, MSU failed to get one against the Badgers, for the first time since the end of the 2023 season.
The Spartans pushed the edge by going for it on fourth down six times, and they turned it over on downs on their final five after succeeding on their first drive of the game. That offset not having an interception or a fumble lost against Wisconsin.
Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has not thrown a TD pass during the skid, and he is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 144.7 yards with three interceptions in those three games. After averaging 434.5 yards and 32.5 points in beating Toledo and Eastern Michigan, MSU has posted just 219.7 yards and 8.7 points against the Irish, Huskers and Badgers.
There were some positives. With Cam Edwards out for the season, running backs Jaziun Patterson and Marvin Parrish combined for 98 yards on 29 attempts. The offensive line, which allowed 15 sacks in the first two games and six against Nebraska, gave up just two to the Badgers and one was late. But the Spartans also failed to create a gain longer than 9 yards either in the run or pass game. They have completed just four passes of 20-plus yards and have not got a 10-plus yard run from any of their running backs.
The Illini defense is tied for 94th in scoring (26.0) and tied for 98th in the nation in total defense (381.8 yards) and 118th in passing yards allowed (255.0). They have given up 126.8 yards per game on the ground. Safety Matthew Bailey is 10th in the Big Ten with 37 tackles and had an interception return for a touchdown against Southern Illinois.
When Illinois has the ball: MSU’s patchwork defense, without starting linebacker Jordan Hall and cornerback Tyran Chappell, struggled to stop Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph’s running and passing last week.
Without those two, and with several players playing through injuries, the Spartans continued to give up explosive plays at an alarming rate, including a 47-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and a 46-yard TD pass in the fourth period to Joseph that accounted for all of the second-half scoring. The Badgers had five passes of 15 yards or more, and they had five runs of 10-plus yards. Four of those long runs also came from the mobile Joseph, who finished with 141 rushing yards on 13 attempts and 145 passing yards with three TDs.
That came a week after the Spartans struggled to slow Nebraska QB Anthony Colandrea, who threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns and ran 10 times for 66 yards. Colandrea completed five passes of 15-plus yards, exploiting MSU's secondary for a 44-yard TD pass and another 38-yard completion.
Illinois’ offense is averaging 30.6 points a game, which is 68th among 138 FBS teams, and are buoyed by quarterback Katin Houser and the 52nd-best passing attack in the nation (249.2 yards). Illinois' offensive line has protected Houser, allowing just six sacks – three of those coming against Ohio State. Wide receiver Colin Dixon ranks third in the Big Ten with 546 receiving yards on 40 catches with eight touchdowns, and his 8.0 yards per catch average also is third in the conference.
Know the foe
Houser home again: This will be Illinois quarterback Katin Houser’s first game at Spartan Stadium since he was MSU’s starting quarterback as a redshirt freshman for a 20-17 victory over Nebraska on Nov. 4, 2023. A 2022 recruit under former coach Mel Tucker, Houser entered the transfer portal after that season, in which he made seven starts, and spent the past two seasons at East Carolina. In 11 games with MSU, the former four-star recruit went 112-of-191 passing for 1,130 yards and six passing touchdowns while throwing five interceptions with two rushing scores. Since transferring to Illinois in the offseason, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Houser has completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,246 yards with 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions while taking six sacks. Houser also has 106 rushing yards on 25 attempts with a touchdown.
Chief of the Illini: Since returning to the Big Ten with Illinois in 2021, Bret Bielema is 39-29 overall and 23-24 in conference play, with a 23-15 win over MSU in 2022 and a 38-16 loss in 2024. The former Wisconsin coach had guided Illinois to three bowl appearances the past four years after the Illini had just one postseason trip in the previous seven seasons. His 10-3 finish in 2024 was Illinois' first double-digit win season since 2001 and just the fifth in program history. Bielema is 2-1 against Fitzgerald all-time.
Same but different: Much like the Spartans, the Illini have failed to win a game against a power-conference opponent. They lost at home to Purdue last week (24-7), at No. 6 Ohio State (48-10) and at home to Duke (31-27). However, Illinois’ offense has averaged 396.3 yards and 21 points in those three defeats. as its defense has allowed 32.3 points and 413.0 yards to its opponents. Defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck took the fall for those struggles, as he was fired after the loss to OSU.
Chris Solari's two cents
Rocket revisited: Bieleima’s last time coaching at Spartan Stadium was 15 years ago when he was with the Badgers on Oct. 22, 2011 – a dramatic 37-31 MSU homecoming victory the Spartans won on a Hail Mary pass (named "Rocket") from Kirk Cousins to Keith Nichol. Wisconsin and Russell Wilson got their revenge in the Big Ten championship game a month and a half later with an equally thrilling 42-39 victory. Current MSU linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Max Bullough was a linebacker for Dantonio and the Spartans in those games, while Spartans’ tight ends coach Brian Wozniak (2009-13) was on the field for Bielema and the Badgers.
Welcome back: It’s not just Houser coming back to East Lansing. Saturday will be MSU's 110th homecoming, and the Spartans are 71-35-3 all time in those games (homecoming games were not held in 1915, 1943 and 2020). MSU lost 38-13 last year to UCLA on homecoming after knocking off Iowa in 2024, 32-20.
Prediction
The Spartans’ offense shows progress and finds some rhythm against the Illini’s defense, but slowing down the Houser-to-Dixon combination proves too much to prevent the losing streak from reaching four games. Big plays again prove to be MSU’s undoing in the fourth quarter. The pick: Illinois 28, MSU 24.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State-Illinois scouting report, prediction: Can Spartans end slide?
