It's the bye week. The Detroit Lions are feeling good after last week's 45-21 thumping of the Arizona Cardinals, but they're not locks to make the playoffs yet, and what happens in their next two games will go a long way toward determining where they end up.
The way I see it, seven NFC teams are fighting for five playoff spots with the non-division winners in the NFC North and NFC West (minus the lowly Cardinals) the conference's likely representatives as wild cards, and the NFC East and NFC South probably sending only their division champs to the tournament.
The wild card should come from a pool of teams that includes the Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers and Vikings are
5-0 and favorites to win their divisions, the Rams are 2-3 and everyone else in that group is 3-2.
It's a bit of a jumble, and it's too early to project what happens and with whom, but November will be here before we know it, so the jockeying for playoffs spots is on.
The Lions play the Packers and Vikings (both at Ford Field) after the bye and probably need wins in both games to keep the division title in their sights. That Vikings game in Week 8 looms especially large, though my thoughts with 2/3 of the season to go are the same as they were at the beginning of the year - that tough end-of-season stretch with three road division games in four weeks is where the division will be won and lost.
Enough playoff talk for now. You all had some great mailbag questions this week. Sorry if I didn't get to yours; we'll do another soon.
Do you believe the Lions make a trade before the NFL trade deadline, if so, who do you believe the Lions will target? - @MicroMike85
Got a few trade questions this week, so let me start by saying I do believe Lions general manager Brad Holmes will make a move before the Tuesday, Nov. 10 deadline.
Clearly, the Lions still need help in the secondary. They're last in the league in pass defense by a wide margin. And with Brian Branch due back next week, their biggest need is cornerback. D.J. Reed has not had a good year. He's allowed a 146.4 passer rating against, according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats. Rock Ya-Sin lost his starting job before he got hurt. And while Roger McCreary did some good things against the Cardinals, any time a cornerback is targeted 19 times in a game raises a red flag.
Joey Porter Jr. will probably be the best cornerback dealt this fall, but I could see Holmes pursuing whoever the equivalent of Za'Darius Smith is on this market, a solid player who upgrades the room but is far from a true difference maker. I've used Greg Newsome as an example of the kind of player the Lions could pursue, a solid veteran on an expiring contract. But the longer the New York Giants stay in first place, the less likely they are to deal Newsome.
A reunion with Amik Robertson, as @OnePride89 suggested, would make sense if the Washington Commanders were willing to deal him, though Robertson is five games into a two-year deal. I'd call the struggling Los Angeles Chargers and ask about Tarheeb Still, knowing they likely won't deal him, and maybe settle on Donte Jackson if he's healthy. And Riq Woolen is a name many have speculated could hit the market if the Philadelphia Eagles don't turn their season around.
We're all expecting Brad to make a move to address corner at some point, but do you think the best time for that move is over the next 1.5 weeks on the BYE, or to wait until the deadline is truly upon us? - @Pacemaker95
I'd wait if I were the Lions. There's four weeks of games before the deadline. That's a lot of time for teams to play themselves in or out of the playoff race, and that could dramatically alter the market.
There's a philosophy when it comes to some of these moves that I believe Holmes has referenced before, which is to not do anything until you have to. I don't know that the Lions want to take this right up to the trade deadline; they fly to Germany two days after the deadline this year. But I don't see the impetus to do anything immediately, given who's on the market.
In the NFL, injuries are such a big factor, too. If you're the Lions and you only have one move in you, it's prudent to wait and make sure your needs don't change based on health.
Is Kerby ever coming back? - @vacationhome1.bsky.social
Yes, I do think Kerby Joseph plays at some point this year, though I don't have a timetable on when and I can't say what type of player he'll be when he's on the field.
The last time I talked to Joseph in the locker room a couple weeks ago, he was in good spirits and doing rehab on his knee. That's a far cry from where he was last year, and I know he's put in a ton of work with the intention to play again this fall.
The biggest question with Joseph is how long his knee holds up and how the injury impacts his range. I don't know if he'll go a week, a month, a year or longer before the pain becomes too much to bear, and I don't know that anyone has that answer. But when he's ready to give it a go, he's too good a player to keep on the sideline.
Any concern the defense played for their coach last week but returns to the mean this week? - @walteriv.bsky.social·
I expect that to happen − on some level, at least.
Beating the Cardinals was nice and the defense did some good things playing more man coverage and up front against the run, but the Lions still have talent deficiencies in their back seven that will be exposed by better teams. Branch's pending return should help, but he's 10 months removed from a torn Achilles. It's unreasonable to think he'll play immediately at the Pro Bowl-level he was at before he got hurt.
If you're looking for reasons to be optimistic about the defense, the pass rush is for real as long as Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill stay healthy, and I think the run defense is better than it showed the first four weeks. If I'm Kelvin Sheppard, I'm sticking with a man-heavy approach to coverage after the bye to keep things simple on the back end.
Should the Lions start a Jared Goff succession plan in the upcoming draft? - @calendar1bot
Nah, it's too early for that − and this is coming from someone who thought the Lions should look for a successor to Goff right after they traded for him.
I was wrong then, and maybe I'll be wrong about this now, but Goff just turned 32 years old and is playing some of the best football of his career. The Lions are going to have to give him a new contract sometime in the next 18 months, so the reality is you're drafting someone to either sit on the bench or develop and trade away.
The time will come soon enough to think about Goff's replacement. Injury, age, performance − there will be a tell he's nearing the end. But that time isn't now. They Lions have much bigger needs to address to stay competitive within the division and NFC. It'd be a waste to spend valuable draft capital on quarterback while Goff is playing at this high a level.
If Scruggs is highest graded C, when Mays comes back would it be beneficial to plug Scruggs into the other G spot opposite of Ratledge? - @baileybearmosk
Dan Campbell mentioned the possibility of moving Juice Scruggs to left guard once Cade Mays returns, so that isn't off the table. But Christian Mahogany is playing pretty good football, too, right now and I think it's best to leave the offensive line intact as much as possible.
I got another question from @DirtyJerzFinest about possibly trading Scruggs once Mays returns. That's a reasonable thought considering Scruggs is in the final year of his contract and Cam Jurgens just got the Eagles a future second-round pick, but I don't think that's in the cards, either.
I see Scruggs settling in as the Lions' backup interior lineman the final 12 weeks. Injuries happen; he's bound to play at some point. And even if he doesn't, he'll give the offense peace of mind knowing he's there.
Confidence levels of resigning Laporta and Branch ? - @TheWheeezyKid
Let's end it on this: Sam LaPorta and the Lions have tabled talks on a new contract for now, and a deal for Branch has seemingly been on hold during his rehab. I do think the Lions still get deals done with both players, though my confidence has waned, especially on the LaPorta front.
First, the closer players get to free agency − both Branch and LaPorta are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in March − the less impetus there is for them to do a deal. In LaPorta's case in particular, he's five months away from a bidding war that should make him the highest-paid tight end in football. Why would he undercut that now?
My best guess on how this plays out is the Lions sign Branch to an extension later this fall and have the franchise tag to use on LaPorta. That could prompt him to get a deal done − or drive a wedge further between the two sides. LaPorta said he's still open to signing something in-season, so that's not completely off the table. But I think it's more likely Branch is done first as long as he plays well in his return and talks with LaPorta drag into the spring.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions mailbag: Is it time to start thinking about trades?
