Michigan State football hosts the Toledo Rockets on Friday night at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing (8 p.m., FS1).
MSU begins a new season and a new era, led by coach Pat Fitzgerald, who was hired right after last season's 4-8 finish to replace Jonathan Smith following two seasons.
The Spartans return quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, a redshirt sophomore who took over as the starter late last season and showed poise and toughness.
Still, MSU is projected to finish near the bottom of the 18-team Big Ten Conference, with their over/under win projection at 4½ and heavily favoring the under.
The Rockets went 8-5 in 2025 and 6-2 in the Mid-American Conference, losing to Louisville, 27-22, in the Boca Raton Bowl. Gone is successful coach Jason Candle
to Connecticut. In comes Mike Jacobs in his first season at this level, after major success as head coach at Mercer, Lenoir-Rhyne and Notre Dame College (Ohio). His career record of 94-23 (.803) ranks him fourth in winning percentage among active coaches in NCAA Divisions I and II.
Here are our Michigan State vs. Toledo football game picks, with the Spartans favored by 10 points.
Chris Solari
Expect this to be a ground-dominated game – especially if heavy rains that are predicted douse Spartan Stadium – that Fitzgerald wants to be the Spartans’ identity moving forward. MSU wants and needs to see its run game show progress and will feed UConn transfer Cam Edwards behind the reconfigured offensive line to grind down the Rockets in the second half for a tone-setting victory and start to Fitzgerald’s tenure. The pick: MSU 28, Toledo 14.
Shawn Windsor
Pat Fitzgerald didn't inherit quite the talent Kyle Whittingham did down south. In fact, he inherited very little as MSU has a largely new roster this season; some 40 players left last offseason due to the portal or the loss of eligibility. Fitzgerald has lots to stitch back together. Here's betting he has done enough to beat Toledo. The pick: MSU 26, Toledo 16.
Rainer Sabin
Both programs are breaking in new coaches, so the game may not go smoothly for either side at the outset. But Pat Fitzgerald’s Spartans should find their footing first. With quarterback Alessio Milivojevic leading the charge, MSU eventually leaves Toledo in the dust. The pick: MSU 28, Toledo 17.
Carlos Monarrez
The Pat Fitzgerald era begins! Hey, we’ve got more eras going on than a Taylor Swift concert tour. The Spartans need a big win – yes, even over a MAC team – as salve for the entire athletic department’s soul after the J Batt fiasco. Fitzgerald could use one, too, as he returns to the coaching ranks after his ignominious firing at Northwestern. He’ll get it with the help of a more poised redshirt sophomore quarterback Alessio Milivojevic. The pick: MSU 27, Toledo 16.
Jeff Seidel
Let the Pat Fitzgerald era begin. We will see toughness. We will see physicality. And we will see fundamentals. But Fitzgerald also has something else: a QB with some experience. Alessio Milivojevic has gotten more than 300 snaps at QB, completing 64% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. What will he do behind a better offensive line? I think he’s gonna impress. And the Spartans will be better than what many are predicting. The pick: MSU 28, Toledo 14.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State football vs Toledo picks to open Pat Fitzgerald era
