Dan Campbell joked he was "shocked" that most analytical models sided with his decision to try and convert a fourth-and-1 from his own 24-yard line late in Sunday's win over the Green Bay Packers, and the Detroit Lions coach said he made the much-debated call partly out of a desire to keep the game out of Jordan Love's hands.
“When you watch six weeks of Jordan Love launching these balls and first downs and first downs and flags, I wanted to leave it in our hands and take it away from anybody else," Campbell said of the Packers quarterback.
The Lions failed to convert a run play with 4:53 left when Jahmyr Gibbs was stopped for a 2-yard loss, giving Green Bay the ball at the 22-yard line in a tie game.
their secondary and shut down the Packers
The Packers went three-and-out on the ensuing possession after Josh Jacobs dropped a would-be touchdown on third-and-5, and after D.J. Wonnum blocked the Packers' go-ahead field-goal attempt, the Lions followed with a 10-play drive that ended on Jake Bates' game-winning 22-yard field goal as time expired.
Campbell explained after the game that he went for it on fourth down knowing the Lions were guaranteed another possession if they failed to convert, and most analytical models backed his call.
ESPN's model said the decision increased the Lions' win percentage by 2.5%, to 46.8%, while the NFL's NextGen Stats considered it a toss up because of the actual distance.
The play was about fourth-and-1.75 yards.
Asked about the play call Monday, Campbell the Lions were "not on the same page" on the run.
"It just didn’t work out," he said. "That was another, we’re not on the same page. That’s our own doing and we certainly helped on that, in a bad way. As long as we’re all on the same page, we got a chance there."
Campbell said he did not challenge the spot on a 9-yard reception by Gibbs on the start of the Lions' second-to-last drive because "I just didn’t feel like it was worth it losing the timeout if it wasn’t going to be clear enough."
The Packers stopped Gibbs for no gain on the next two plays, setting up Campbell's fourth-down decision.
"It literally it was what I said," Campbell said. "I just, with where that was, where the clock was at is – look, I know what I’m conceding if you don’t get that. I believed we were going to get that. I know what we were conceding, but I also know without any doubt, any question, we are getting the ball back with plenty of time to answer and rebuttal whatever they’ve done. That, it was really that simple."
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Dan Campbell: 'I know what we were conceding' on failed 4th-down call
