Michigan could see a warmer-than-usual winter with less snow than normal as a strong El Niño influences weather patterns across the Great Lakes region, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest winter outlook.
The outlook released Thursday, Oct. 15, favors above-average temperatures across the Midwest, including Michigan, and drier-than-average conditions in parts of the Great Lakes region. It covers December 2026 through February 2027.
But a milder winter overall doesn't rule out major snowstorms or periods of bitter cold.
“We have to remember that a strong El Niño is not necessarily related to the severity of the impacts,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said during a NOAA media briefing. “It doesn't
erase the risk.”
What does NOAA's winter forecast say about Michigan?
NOAA favors warmer-than-average temperaturesacross much of the northern United States, including the Midwest. Its precipitation outlook is more mixed, with drier-than-average conditions favored in parts of the Great Lakes region.
The seasonal outlook shows which temperature and precipitation patterns are more likely over several months. It does not predict exact snowfall totals or when individual storms will occur.
Will Michigan get less snow this winter?
Michigan could see below-average seasonal snowfall as El Niño influences the winter storm track. During the NOAA briefing, meteorologist Jon Gottschalck said strong El Niño events typically favor less snowfall across the Great Lakes region and parts of the interior Northeast.
“The snow pack is likely to be less than normal, as I mentioned, across the interior northeast, Great Lakes region in general, including the Upper Midwest,” Gottschalck said.
The pattern could also reduce opportunities for lake-effect snow, which can bring heavy snowfall to communities downwind of the Great Lakes.
“With warmer temperatures as well, during the El Niño events, there's the potential for less lake effect snow,” he said.
NOAA does not issue an official seasonal snowfall outlook as part of the forecast. The snowfall expectations discussed during the briefing are based on typical El Niño patterns, rather than a direct prediction of how many inches of snow Michigan will receive.
Could Michigan still see major snowstorms and extreme cold?
Seasonal averages do not prevent individual winter storms or cold-air outbreaks.
“(El Niño) doesn't mean during the winter that we're not gonna have winter, meaning snowfall is gonna occur,” Gottschalck said. “You're gonna have cold air outbreaks. You can still get snowstorms.”
The timing and intensity of those events will depend on individual weather systems. A major snowstorm could still bring substantial accumulation to parts of Michigan, even if the state's seasonal snowfall ends up below average.
Residents should continue to monitor local forecasts and winter weather alerts as the season progresses.
Brandi D. Addison covers weather nationwide as the Weather Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network and contributes to Texas Connect coverage statewide. She can be reached at baddison@usatodayco.com. Follow her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Will Michigan have a brutal winter? What NOAA forecasts amid El Niño
