Detroit Tigers starter Framber Valdez has not lived up to his expectations in 2026. Valdez has also been a top-of-the-rotation force for the better part of a month, harkening back to the performances throughout his career.
Both things can be true, depending on which stats you look at.
Valdez pitched six productive innings in Detroit's 6-2 win over the Colorado Rockies at Comerica Park on Friday, Sept. 11, allowing just one unearned run in a wild fifth inning but otherwise shutting down Colorado's batters in his fourth straight quality start (defined as at least six innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs allowed).
Don't take Valdez's innings for granted, either – he leads the Tigers with 16 quality starts this season, while no other Tigers pitcher
has more than nine. In fact, Valdez is tied for fifth in the entire American League in quality starts, marking his fifth year with at least 16 quality starts in a season. And according to Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, he has been getting better as the season has progressed.
"He's made some subtle adjustments, and he takes these starts very personal," he said. "Especially this season, as inconsistent as it has been, we can't forget the foundation that he has to be a really, really effective major league pitcher."
Tigers fans certainly hope so. Valdez may not end up the ace of the staff heading into next season, but he will likely be the highest-paid Tigers pitcher, with a $42.8 million salary.
So, should the Tigers expect the Valdez they've seen over the past handful of starts? Or the one sporting an ERA over 4 for the first time since 2019?
Like with many things surrounding Valdez this season, it's complicated.
Framber Valdez still has frustrating moments
Facing his first batter Friday, Valdez immediately showed why he has attracted criticism this season.
On a 1-2 curveball, Rockies leadoff hitter Jake McCarthy laced a ground ball to first baseman Colt Keith, with Valdez running over to cover first base but slowing up enough around the bag to let McCarthy leg out an infield single.
It's not a guarantee Valdez would have beat McCarthy if he had been sprinting all the way, especially with McCarthy's 99th-percentile sprint speed (per Statcast) and Valdez's slower wheels. But it's another data point for those who think Valdez may not be giving his all 100% of the time, even as Valdez ended up with a scoreless first inning.
The lefty made up for the lapse with a run-saving play in the fifth inning, picking up a safety squeeze from shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and shoveling the ball to catcher Dillon Dingler to get Troy Johnston out at home plate. But on the very next play, one where right fielder Zach McKinstry threw out right fielder Jordan Beck at the plate, Valdez admitted to backing up the wrong bag, saying he expected McKinstry to throw to third base instead of home plate.
It ended up not mattering in the box score. McKinstry's throw didn't need backup, and Valdez picked up his teammates in his own way, by pitching through a Kevin McGonigle error that led to the sole unearned run Valdez allowed.
Ultimately, the Tigers can live with the mental mistakes and bad decisions as long as Valdez's results resemble the ace-level work from his previous six seasons with the Houston Astros. Lately, he's been doing just that.
Valdez has pitched effectively recently
Each of Valdez's past four starts have gone at least six innings, with the lefty not allowing more than three earned runs in any of them. In fact, Valdez has a 2.16 ERA over those four starts, two wins and two losses.
And if you squint closely, Valdez's turnaround has actually been progressing for the last couple of months. If you take out Valdez's disastrous July 21 start against the Chicago Cubs, Valdez's post All-Star ERA drops from 4.32 to 3.28, which falls below his career average and is almost a full run lower than his first-half ERA (4.10). According to Hinch, Valdez's improved outings have come down to execution.
"I love the fact that he has been able to locate his breaking ball a little bit better," he said. "He hasn't overexposed his changeup. He threw a couple of sliders. I do think the four-seamer has changed his mix a little bit. And when he puts it all together, he's really, really good."
Valdez agrees, saying he has seen a lot of improvement over his last few starts.
"I've spoken with [Hinch], I've spoken with my pitching coach, and we've improved the aggressiveness, the focus, the maintenance of every pitch, the intensity of every pitch, the discipline," he said. "We have improved that greatly and maintained that focus until the end."
And while Valdez's improvements are likely coming too late for a Tigers postseason run, they are also showing the quality of an ace finally emerging from his first-half struggles.
Framber Valdez, 2027 ace?
The Tigers signed Valdez to a free-agent contract in February with the expectation that he would be the No. 2 starter in the rotation behind former ace Tarik Skubal, but also knowing he could play the ace role if Skubal wasn't around for 2027. And barring the team's unlikely reunion with Skubal or former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize, who were both traded to National League West teams at the deadline, that backup plan may turn Valdez into the team's No. 1 starter next season.
That proposition didn't seem so likely a month ago, especially with righty Troy Melton carrying a sub-2 ERA for most of the season and Jackson Jobe showing lights-out stuff in his first start returning from Tommy John surgery in August. But both have pitched inconsistently in their most recent starts, re-opening the discussion of staff ace heading into 2027.
And though this likely won't come to pass, if the Tigers were to make the postseason, Valdez has done enough to be named a Game 1 starter – especially with his playoff pedigree as a World Series winner. That will always be a part of Valdez's makeup no matter how consistent his pitching looks.
And if nothing else, Valdez seems to understand the value of hard work and teamwork as a way to get to that postseason finish.
"Playing together, talking, communicating with each other what is going well, what we need to do and what is going poorly," he said. "Communication is very important, and that's what we're doing, trying to focus to have a good season and finish strong."
That last part is the most important of all, and so far, Valdez is delivering.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Framber Valdez starting to look like an ace for the Detroit Tigers
