It’s been more than a decade since the Detroit Lions had the NFL leader in one of the major statistical categories on offense, dating back to Calvin Johnson setting the NFL record for receiving yards with 1,964 in 2012.
Before Johnson, Barry Sanders was the last Lion player on offense to lead the league in a counting stat – passing, rushing or receiving yards – when he had his 2,053-yard rushing season in 1997.
No Lion has led the league in passing since Bobby Layne in 1951. And on defense, a Lion has never led the league in sacks, at least since it became an official stat in 1982, and it has been 32 years since Chris Spielman led the league in tackles, though Kerby Joseph, Darius Slay and Glover Quin have all lead the league in interceptions
(or tied for the lead, at least) in the past 12 years.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas don’t expect the Lions to end their drought in any of those categories this fall, though with stars atop their roster, they’ll have plenty of chances to do so.
Here’s a look at projections for each of those categories, and how the Lions’ best statistical hope lines up. All odds and projections are from BetOnline Sports.
Passing
Last year’s leader: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (4,707 yards).
This year’s favorite: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (plus-600).
Lions’ best bet: Jared Goff (plus-750; 2nd overall).
Goff actually has the highest over-under yardage total (4,099.5) on BetOnline – Burrow and Dak Prescott are tied for second at 3,999.5 – and he’s the only quarterback to finish in the top three of passing yards in each of the past three years. Burrow beat Goff in the category in 2024, when he led the league with 4,918 yards to Goff's 4,629.
Burrow’s extensive injury history makes him a risky bet at the top of this chart, while Goff hasn’t missed a game since 2021 and has been far more durable than the other quarterbacks mentioned so far. There’s some safety in betting on Goff to lead the league in passing, but maybe not the same upside as other quarterbacks, given the Lions’ desire to run the ball.
Goff has topped 4,400 yards passing each of the past four seasons and I’d guess he’s right around that mark again in 2026. I’ll put him down for 4,431 yards this season – fourth in the NFL behind Prescott, Burrow and a rejuvenated Patrick Mahomes.
Rushing
Last year’s leader: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (1.621 yards).
This year’s favorite: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (plus-575).
Lions’ best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs (plus-700, tied for 3rd overall).
Picking a rushing leader is risky business given the injuries at the position, which is probably why so many of the favorites are bunched together near the top. Taylor led the league in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns last year, but the last time he did that he missed six games the following season with injury.
Cook, Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley are no worse than plus-1,000. All five rushed for more than 1,100 yards last season, though Gibbs did so on far and away the lightest workload (243 carries; Barkley, at 280, was next). Gibbs should shoulder more of the burden of the Lions offense this fall with David Montgomery gone, and I do think he’ll set a career high in rushing yards if he stays healthy. It’s the year after a heavy workload that tends to take down backs, as even the bruising Henry has seen significant dropoffs in yardage in the three years since topping 310 carries.
Give me Gibbs to lead the league with 1,581 yards rushing – his over-under is 1,150.5 yards – with Barkley, Henry, Robinson and the Dallas Cowboys’ Javonte Williams also in the 1,300-yard mix. I’ll take the under on Gibbs’ total touchdowns at 15.5, though I think he’s ticketed for a huge year.
Receiving
Last year’s leader: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (1,793 yards).
This year’s favorite: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams (plus-575).
Lions’ best bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown (plus-950, 4th overall).
There are so many good receivers and capable passing games right now, but I would side with one of the two favorites – Nacua or Cincinnati's Ja’Marr Chase (plus-600) – to lead the league in receiving yards this year. Nacua led the NFL in catches (129) and receiving yards per game (107.2) last year and is in a contract year with much to prove given his off-field troubles.
Chase’s production is largely dependent on Burrow staying healthy, but he has led the league in targets each of the past two seasons and there’s no reason to think that changes now. St. Brown is the biggest killer in the league as a receiver, and he averaged more yards per reception (12) than Chase (11.3) last year. But he has to share the ball with a better group of skill players – Gibbs, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta – than everyone else on this list which limits his yadage upside.
I think St. Brown hits 120 catches this year for the first time in his career, to go with 1,489 yards, but I’ll take Nacua to lead the league with 1,777 yards receiving even though he’s battling a core muscle injury now. St. Brown (1,250.5 yards), Williams (950.5 yards), LaPorta (675.5 yards) and Gibbs (450.5 yards) all have very reachable over-under receiving yard totals, though it’s unlikely all hit. If I had to pick one to go under, it'd be LaPorta given his injury history. If you’re looking for a sleeper to lead the league in receiving, how about a newly-motivated A.J. Brown (plus-2000)?
Sacks
Last year’s leader: Myles Garrett, Los Angeles Rams (23).
This year’s favorite: Garrett (plus-250).
Lions best bet: Aidan Hutchinson (plus-500, 2nd overall).
Hutchinson looks poised for a huge year. He’s coming off a 14½-sack season, he’s been absolutely dominant in training camp and he’s another year removed from the broken leg that cost him most of 2024. Hutchinson was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level before that injury, and he should be right back in the mix for that award again this fall.
But as good as Hutchinson is, I can’t pick anyone but Garrett to lead the league in sacks after he was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Rams this offseason. He’ll play with more leads and on a better defense, and if Aaron Donald joins the Rams, L.A.’s pass rush will be nearly impossible to stop.
I think Hutchinson sets a new Lions record with 16 sacks this season, tied for second in the league with the Houston Texans’ Will Anderson, three behind Garrett. Nik Bonitto of the Denver Broncos would be my dark hose pick at plus-1600. At a minimum, Hutchinson looks like a good bet to pass his over of 12½ sacks.
Other defensive stats
BetOnline does not have odds posted for tackle and interception leaders this year, but the site sent out a spreadsheet with projected tackle leaders and Lions linebacker Jack Campbell is tied for the top spot with Miami's Jordyn Brooks and Minnesota's Blake Cashman at an over-under of 145.5. Brooks led the league with 183 tackles last season and Campbell finished second with 176. (New Lions linebacker Devin White, meanwhile, was third with 174.)
I’d probably take Carson Schwesinger of the Cleveland Browns to lead the league as a good player on a bad team with lots of chances to makes tackles. Campbell has averaged 153.5 tackles the past two seasons and that seems like a good projection for this year, though that number could dip if the Lions move him around more and play fewer snaps as a better team overall.
I can’t see anyone in the Lions’ secondary ranking among the league leaders in interceptions. They don’t have enough playmakers in the back end right now and there’s still no clear timetable for when Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch will return.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Lions' best players getting low stat projections from sportbsooks; here's where they'll end up
