As Michiganders go to the polls Aug. 4, here's what we're watching most closely, from the outcomes that will shape the November general elections in three months' time to the minutiae that, as political nerds, we geek out on.
Here are eight questions, in declining order of significance:
Who wins the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate?
The grandaddy of questions to be settled by the Aug. 4 voting is clearly whether U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens of Birmingham, backed by an army of establishment endorsers(Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Gary Peters, etc.) and aided by at least $50 million in outside spending on her behalf (including that from staunchly pro-Israel sources), can beat former Wayne County and Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed of Ann Arbor, who stands as one of — if not the most prominent
— progressive-wing hopeful in the nation (and has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, etc.). All eyes everywhere are on this race and it's too close to call beforehand. The winner gets Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake, who is unopposed in the GOP primary and lost a squeaker to U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin two years ago.
How does John James do against Perry Johnson?
With President Trump's endorsement, there's little reason to believe that U.S. Rep. John James, of Shelby Township, won't win the Republican nomination for governor (and likely face Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is expected to beat Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson for the Democratic nomination), setting up an epic battle for the fall. But we do wonder how businessman and "quality guru" Perry Johnson does against James in the primary, since a marginal showing by James may tell us about how he is perceived among the GOP base (and how much weight Trump's endorsement carries at this point).
Who will face Tom Barrett in November?
Barrett, R-Charlotte, is a first-termer representing mid-Michigan's 7th Congressional District in the U.S. House, the state's swingiest (or most partisan divided) district. So with a war raging in Iran, gas prices still high, Trump's job approval ratings hurting, and historical trends favoring the party out of power in midterm congressional elections, there's a decent chance the winner of the Democratic primary — all of whom are political newcomers — winds up in Congress. It's been a tough-fought race, too, between former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and community activist William Lawrence. Brink has been seen as the establishment choice, but Maasdam has the backing of U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (who previously represented this district) and Lawrence is trying to ride a progressive wave out of Lansing/East Lansing.
Can Shri Thanedar hold on for a third term?
Thanedar, D-Detroit, is a millionaire businessman/entrepreneur and an Indian immigrant who has won split primaries in this predominately Democratic district, the 13th, since 2022. This time, he faces one challenger, state Rep. Donavan McKinney, also of Detroit, making it less likely the primary vote will be split among multiple candidates. McKinney has substantial backing from progressive Democrats (like U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Detroit). But Thanedar has incumbency and some support from establishment Democrats as well, not to mention a lot of cash to spend on his own race. The winner is a shoo-in in November.
How does the general election for James' U.S. House seat set up?
The 10th Congressional District, anchored in southern Macomb County (Warren, Sterling Heights, etc.) with a smattering of eastern Oakland County (Rochester, Rochester Hills) is seen as a political toss-up. But James, who didn't even live in the district to begin with, won it twice, a measure of how it has swung at least somewhat toward Republicans. Now that he's off running for governor, the presumed frontrunner for the Republican nomination is Trump-endorsed Mike Bouchard, an Army National Guard captain and son of the longtime Oakland County sheriff of the same name. Bouchard faces Clinton Township lawyer Justin Kirk and construction manager and Army veteran Steffan Demetropoulos. The bigger question here is who wins the Democratic nomination for what could be a pickup for the party, given national trends. Lawyer Eric Chung has raised and spent more money than his opponents, former Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel has more political experience than the others and Warren lawyer and former prosecutor Christina Hines enjoys perhaps the deepest institutional support in Macomb County Democratic circles.
Who replaces Haley Stevens in the U.S. House?
Stevens' decision to run for the Senate leaves an opening in the U.S. House seat for Michigan's 11th Congressional District, based almost entirely in Oakland County. When Stevens first ran in 2018, her district had traditionally been a Republican stronghold. Now, political trends and redrawn political lines suggest the winner of the Democratic nomination between state Sen. Jeremy Moss (who has lined up the support of Whitmerand most of the Democratic establishment), retired Ford Motor Co. engineer and executive Don Ufford, lawyer Aisha Farooqi and school district trustee John Paul Torres is the prohibitive favorite in November.
How does Jack Bergman's race shake out Up North?
We have a strong belief that the sway of incumbency and the pro-Trump leanings of his constituency will protect U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman's run for his sixth Republican nomination in Michigan's 1st Congressional District, comprised of the Upper Peninsula and the northern part of the Lower Peninsula. But givensome of the strangeness of this race — including a challenge by two Republicans, Justin Michal of Grayling and Matthew DenOtter of Boyne City, who Bergman endorsed in a previous race in another congressional district — we're decidedly curious as to how it works out. The winner faces the victor of a Democratic nomination battle that includes Callie Barr (who was the nominee two years ago), Kyle Blomquist and Wayne Stiles. But no Democrat has won in the district since 2008.
Does Rashida Tlaib face any headwinds in reelection?
Our presumption is that Tlaib, the four-term congresswoman from Detroit and a nationally known progressive firebrand, easily wins the determinative Democratic nomination race en route to a fifth term. Still, we'll be watching to see if two Democratic challengers, Inkster Mayor Byron Nolen or former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson, get any traction.
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on X @tsspangler.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 8 things we're watching in the 2026 Michigan August primary election
