Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed continues leading his Republican opponent Mike Rogers, according to several recent polls, in the upcoming U.S. Senate election in Michigan, although the margin has become closer as Election Day nears.
El-Sayed's best polling came in an Oct. 1 Mitchell Research & Communications poll exclusive to CBS Detroit and other TV stations, with 45.6% of likely voters selecting El-Sayed and 41.4% supporting Rogers. The margin of error is ±3.8 percentage points.
The closest gap was observed in a Sept. 22 to Oct. 4 YouGov poll, in which El-Sayed led Rogers 49%-48% with a ±2.5 percentage points margin of error among likely voters surveyed. In an Oct. 5-6 Quantus Insights poll, 47.6% chose El-Sayed, while 46.5% backed Rogers.
The margin of error of ±7.8 percentage points, so the race could be effectively tied.
TheReal Clear Politics' polling average gives El-Sayed a 2.6 percentage point lead overall, based on polls completed Sept. 27 to Oct. 14. That represents a drop from El-Sayed's previous 3.4 percentage point lead in the RCP polling average from polls completed Sept. 7-28.
Of the five October polls included by Real Clear Politics, El-Sayed leads in them all.
Rogers has not led in the RCP polling average since August and has not led in any individual poll since a Sept. 3 Detroit News Glengariff survey.
Voters will choose between El-Sayed and Rogers in the Nov. 3 midterm election.
Here's what to know about polling in Michigan's U.S. Senate race.
When is the U.S. Senate election in Michigan?
Michigan U.S. Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, and Mike Rogers, a Republican, will face off in the midterm election on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Both are seeking to replace retiring Democratic senator Gary Peters.
How did the Rasmussen Reports poll rank El-Sayed, Rogers?
Rasmussen Reports:
- 46% said they would vote for El-Sayed if the election were held today (as of poll timeline), while 44% said they would vote for Rogers
- The survey of 798 Michigan likely voters was conducted Oct. 12-14, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
How did the YouGov poll rank El-Sayed, Rogers?
YouGov:
- 49% said they would vote for El-Sayed, while 48% said they would vote for Rogers
- The survey of 3,949 Michigan likely voters was conducted Sept. 22 to Oct. 4, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
How did the Insider Advantage poll rank El-Sayed, Rogers?
Insider Advantage:
- 48% chose El-Sayed, while 46% chose Rogers
- The survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted Oct. 9-10, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points.
How did the Quantus Insights poll rank El-Sayed, Rogers?
Quantus Insights:
- 47.6% chose El-Sayed, while 46.5% chose Rogers
- The survey of 762 Michigan likely voters was conducted Oct. 5-6, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±7.8 percentage points.
How did the Mitchell Research & Communications poll rank El-Sayed, Rogers?
Mitchell Research & Communications:
- 45.6% chose El-Sayed, while 41.4% chose Rogers
- The survey of Michigan likely voters was conducted Oct. 1, 2026, and has a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points. The poll was exclusive to CBS Detroit and other select television stations, according to CBS Detroit.
Contact Jenna Prestininzi: jprestininzi@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Who's winning Michigan Senate race? Latest polls show tightening race
