Twelve days before Halloween, it’s still too early in the NFL season for must-win games.
There’s two-thirds of the schedule still to play, and too many variables to count that will affect the playoff race.
But as the Detroit Lions return from their bye this week with their first two division games on the docket the next two Sundays against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field, it’s not too soon to think this could be a defining stretch in their season.
The Lions are 3-2 and seemingly − finally − pointed in the right direction on defense.
Brian Branch is ready to return. Cade Mays on offense is, too. They’re coming off their best game of the year against the Arizona Cardinals, mostly healthy across the roster and the NFC is wide
open despite the presence of two undefeated teams.
The San Francisco 49ers aimed get to 6-0 with a win Monday night against the Washington Commanders. The 5-0 Minnesota Vikings are fresh off a bye and face the reeling Indianapolis Colts this week before playing the Lions on Nov. 1.
The NFC North is one of two divisions in football with every team above .500 – the AFC North is the other – and the only division in the watered-down NFC where more than one team has a winning record.
The Los Angeles Rams look old and inept. The Philadelphia Eagles are falling apart. The Seattle Seahawks can’t stop turning the ball over. And the NFC South hasn’t been competitive since Tom Brady retired.
That gives the Lions a great opportunity, but also leaves them little room for error.
Last year, the Lions went 9-8 and finished with a winning record for the fourth straight year but missed the playoffs in part because of their struggles in-division. They swept the season series against the NFC North-champion Chicago Bears but lost their other four division games to the Packers and Vikings by an average of 9.3 points.
They won’t make the playoffs if that happens again this year, and that would be another tough-to-swallow end to a season in what is a shrinking Super Bowl window.
The Lions still have one of the most talented rosters in football with the best running back in the world and Pro Bowl-caliber players sprinkled across nearly every other position. But they have flaws like every team, most notably in the back seven, and that’s why they’re in the lot they are now, having labored their way through the first five games and currently, again, playing catch-up in last place in the division.
I think the Lions are better than the Packers, a team with its own Achilles heel on the offensive line that could be without several key players this Sunday, Oct. 25, because of injuries and off-field issues. Green Bay’s best player, Micah Parsons, is still on the physically unable to perform list because of the torn ACL he suffered last fall, and while running back Josh Jacobs is set to come off the commissioner’s exempt list this week, it’s unclear if he’ll play after six weeks off or what kind of role he’ll have.
I’m not sure if the Lions are better than the Vikings, who have the NFL’s best defense and one of the game’s premier receivers but an offense that rivals the Lions’ secondary for being one of the worst in the league. Minnesota, though, has a two-game cushion in the standings, and that’s nothing to sniff at.
I think the Bears may end up being the best team in the NFC North, as long as Caleb Williams stays healthy, but they’ve been just as maddening as the Lions, scoring 59 points one week and three the next (and struggling in that game even before Williams got hurt).
Whatever the order, the Lions, Packers, Vikings and Bears are peers, and the difference between them is miniscule.
That’s why it’s imperative the Lions handle their business this week against the Packers and next week against the Vikings, lest they dig themselves a hole too deep to climb out of.
This isn’t the only important stretch left on the schedule. The Lions play the defending AFC-champion New England Patriots in Germany, host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who should have their starting quarterback in the lineup, a week later, then host the Bears on Thanksgiving. And they close the season with all three of their division road games in the final four weeks.
But for those windows to really matter, the Lions can’t afford any slip-ups now.
If they beat the Packers and Vikings, they’ll be in the thick of not just the division race but the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, as well. If they split, they’ll stay above water at 4-3 in the NFC, though they could be as many as three games behind the Vikings in the division, a cavernous amount. If they drop both, well, there still will be lots of season to play, and that may or may not be a good thing.
It all depends on how the Lions define themselves.
Dave Birkett covers the Lions for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Bluesky, X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why this two-game stretch could define Detroit Lions' season
