Free Press reporter Christian Romo breaks down the Detroit Lions' Week 7 matchup against the Green Bay Packers and gives his prediction.
Detroit Lions (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)
The coaches: Lions − Dan Campbell (56-45-1 overall, 51-38-1 with Lions); Packers − Matt LaFleur (80-42 overall, all with Packers).
Last game: Lions beat the Arizona Cardinals 45-21; Packers beat Dallas Cowboys 23-13.
Last meeting: Nov. 27, 2025; Packers won 31-24.
Key matchups
Brian Branch vs Christian Watson
Considering whom the Lions secondary is up against this week, the return of Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch couldn't have come at a better time.
"Whenever you gain a player like [Branch] and his caliber back, it's outstanding," said Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard before practice on Thursday, Oct. 22. "There are multiple things that player can
do to help us, and we'll find the spots that we feel is right and he feels is right for him as we progress."
Branch is scheduled to play for the first time this season and is expected to bolster a Lions defense that is last in the NFL in both passing yards allowed (297.4 per game) and total yards allowed (404.4 per game). And though the Lions secondary finally found some quality in Week 5 against the Cardinals, with big performances from cornerback Roger McCreary and rookie safety Keith Abney II, a much bigger challenge awaits them in Green Bay's top receivers, most notably fifth-year pro Christian Watson.
Watson is second in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (six) and fifth in receiving yards (538), standing out as Green Bay's top receiving target alongside second-year pass-catcher Matthew Golden. Unlike many big-play receivers, however, Watson does most of his damage up the middle, leading all NFL receivers with 309 receiving yards, averaging 28.1 yards per reception on targets in that part of the field.
That's going to be a big challenge for Branch and company, especially since Lions cornerback D.J. Reed has statistically been one of the worst defenders in the league on targets of at least 10 yards, allowing 286 yards on 18 downfield targets (the second most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats). If Branch can effectively navigate those long passing attempts to Watson and Golden, it will give Detroit a much better chance at containing quarterback Jordan Love's deep throws.
Jared Goff vs turnovers
Lions quarterback Jared Goff hasn't just won the turnover battle this season, he has mastered it, not turning the ball over once this season over the first five games.
Meanwhile, the Packers are No. 1 in the NFL in interceptions this season (nine) and tied for first in total takeaways (11). In fact, Green Bay has forced a takeaway or a turnover on downs in 13 of its 31 defensive drives over its three-game winning streak, which is not only the best mark in the NFL over that period, but more than 10% higher than the next-closest team in the Kansas City Chiefs (per Next Gen Stats).
Something has to give, right?
"[Goff] has to go play the position with confidence," said Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing before Thursday's practice. "At some point, [an interception] may happen, and that's not going to change who he is, how he plays the game. I think it's about your process, where your eyes are, what you're seeing, what decision you're making, and why."
Continuing to play turnover-free football is key for a Lions offense that is No. 4 in the NFL in total yards (393.8) but tied for first in scoring (32.8), as Detroit has found ways to finish drives better than just about any team in the league. If that consistency continues against Green Bay, it might be hard for the Packers to put together enough scoring drives to win a shootout.
Scouting report
Lions offense vs Packers defense
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has registered 18 explosive runs this season, third most in the NFL – and that's with one fewer game played than most running backs after Detroit's Week 6 bye.
Gibbs recorded 151 rushing yards on 25 carries (a season-high 6.0 yards per attempt) against Arizona as he earned NFC Player of the Week honors for his performance. Coming off a bye week, and with Green Bay sporting a bottom-half rush defense by yards allowed (114.3), expect Gibbs to get a lot of touches once again.
But don't expect Detroit's offense to be so one-dimensional. The Packers' turnover-happy defense may push the Lions to be more conservative, but the Lions have plenty of sure-handed targets like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta who can provide Goff with opportunities up the middle. As long as the Lions don't give away possessions, they should have plenty of opportunities to put up their requisite 31 points.
Whether that will be enough, however, is a question best answered by Detroit's defense.
Edge: Lions.
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Lions defense vs Packers offense
The Packers average an NFL-low 59.8 rushing yards per game, while the Lions have allowed fewer than 60 rushing yards in two of their last three games. Green Bay might find some more quality in their rushing attack with the return of starting running back Josh Jacobs, but with the three-time Pro Bowler likely needing to knock the rust off in his first game of the season, don't expect the Packers to make him a focal point of their strategy this Sunday.
Their passing attack, on the other hand, merits more attention.
Love has turned into one of the NFL's most dangerous downfield passers, with he and top receiver Watson connecting for 16 catches and 444 yards on downfield targets this season, the most of any quarterback-receiver duo in the NFL. Second-year receiver Matthew Golden isn't far behind the pecking order, with the young wideout already having recorded three games with at least 100 receiving yards this season.
But make no mistake – Love is the catalyst to this team's big-play ability.
"As far as big plays, the deep balls, it's why Jordan Love is special," Sheppard said. "He has one of the best deep balls I've seen ... it's a tremendous challenge for us."
And this isn't just a case of Love leading his receivers with big throws – Watson, Golden and tight end Tucker Kraft are all in the top 25 in the NFL in yards after catch, meaning Love also finds his targets in space. And for a Lions secondary that is generally considered the worst in the NFL, that's a big challenge that may be too difficult to overcome, even with the return of Branch.
Edge: Packers.
Christian Romo's prediction
The Lions secondary inspired optimism in Detroit's win over Arizona, but Love will bring those expectations down again with at least two deep completions to silence the Ford Field crowd. And while Detroit's offense will keep up, Goff's streak of turnover-free football will come to an end, allowing the Packers to pull away with an extra possession in the fourth quarter and make a case for NFC North supremacy. The pick: Packers 31, Lions 27.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Lions-Packers scouting report and pick: Can Detroit start 1-0 in the NFC North?
