SHIAWASSEE COUNTY ― Amid a sea of farm-plated pickup trucks, the annual Shiawassee County Fair brought together folks in American flag T-shirts, screeching chickens ‒ and Abdul El-Sayed buttons.
Take a look at the electoral history of Shiawassee County and you can easily see that, overall, it’s red. President Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris here 61% to 38%. But state legislative races are a bit more colorful; the latest district maps puts some of Shiawassee County’s farm country in a district with the city of East Lansing.
And that makes Shiawassee County an interesting place to think about the politics of affordability ‒ and how people here are feeling about the November election.
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While walking through the fair’s exhibit barn, I noticed booths for the Shiawassee County Republican Party as well as the Shiawassee Democrats. And in a world where the people who show up win, the Democrats had the GOP beat.
On five separate occasions, I walked through the barn, each time looking to see whether the booths were staffed, if buttons and stickers were being handed out or ‒ the all-important metric ‒ whether candy was disappearing from the tables.
Each time, the Democrats' booth had at least two people, talking to fairgoers and handing out materials. The Republicans' booth remained empty.
In politics, the people who show up usually matter
Now, sitting at a booth at a county fair doesn’t necessarily indicate much of anything. But it gives a clue as to how motivated people are to get the message out.
I talked with Karen Grennell, a school board trustee from Perry who had done a number of shifts in the Democrats' booth.
“Almost all the people I’ve talked to here have had the same concern: affordability, cost. Families are struggling right now. They are living paycheck to paycheck and still can’t make ends meet,” Karen told me from behind the well-stocked swag table in the fair booth. “This election coming up in November is so important, I fight for the working class and I will to my last dying breath, and families ‒ all the families ‒ are hurting.”
I have to admit, I can see it.
Inflation and cost of living increases have hit everyone, but the cost of actually growing food has increased as well.
Why is beef more expensive? Why does it cost $5 for five slices of bacon? Because nearly everything that goes into producing it and getting it to your grocery store has gotten more expensive.
And the person that most people blame is President Donald Trump.
Everything costs more, and voters know it
It makes sense. As president, Trump gets credit for the good and is blamed for the bad. Unfortunately for him, the bad is currently outweighing the good in very obvious categories.
A gallon of regular gas is topping $4.10. Diesel, which powers the trucks moving goods from place to place, costs even more. And the push by the environmental movement toward electric vehicles doesn’t necessarily solve the affordability problem when Michigan’s utility prices are among the highest in the nation.
In rural Michigan, those costs compound. Caring for animals and harvesting crops requires fuel, equipment and electricity. And simply getting from home to work, school or the grocery store can mean driving 30 minutes or more, and a gallon of gas, in each direction.
The fertilizer bill is political, too
Then there are the costs farmers have even less control over.
Take potash, a key fertilizer for Michigan crops like sugar beets. When we fight with Canada and impose tariffs, the cost of that fertilizer can rise. According to The Fertilizer Institute, a trade association representing fertilizer manufacturers and related industries, 85% of U.S. potash imports come from Canada.
The major alternative source outside Canada? Russia, another country with which our relationship is hardly friendly. And the ongoing war with Iran also continues to play a role in keeping fertilizer prices high.
All of this adds up to a pretty simple political argument: Rural Michigan is expensive, and decisions made by our government in Washington can make it more expensive.
The affordability argument is Democrats' to win
After my trip to the fair, I reached out to the Shiawassee County Republicans. Dan McMaster, the GOP County Chair, responded in his personal capacity.
“For some candidates, the excitement level is extremely high, like Mike Rogers, our former state senator and congressman. Two years ago it was hard to get people to take his yard signs. Last week, it was the biggest, or most, in demand,” he wrote to me by email. “I speak for myself on this, and not as chair, but I believe Republicans are looking forward to the fight this fall, to go head-to-head against the extreme liberal and progressive Democrat candidates on the ticket. (Jocelyn) Benson, (Winnie) Brinks, (Will) Lawrence, (Stephen) Schlaak and Emily Olsen, who is running for road commission, and when on city council she wouldn't rise for the pledge or invocation.
“We needed something to motivate turnout of low-propensity evangelicals and the Dems have given it to us,” McMaster wrote. “In Shiawassee County, Sharia Law and the celebration of 9/11 doesn't go over well.”
For the record, none of the Democrats running do either.
If I were a Democrat running for office, I’d redouble my efforts in places like Shiawassee County. I’d talk less about trying to turn a red county blue and more about something voters there experience every single day: what it costs to fill the truck, fertilize the field, feed the animals and put dinner on the table.
And I’d make Republicans explain why those costs keep going up. If they don’t, El-Sayed buttons might not look quite so out of place at the county fair.
Free Press contributing columnist Andrea Bitely is the founder and principal of Bitely Communications, a Lansing-based public affairs firm specializing in political, corporate and crisis communications. From September 2025 through May 2026, she served as director of communications for former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan's now-ended independent gubernatorial campaign.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Abdul El-Sayed could win rural Michigan if GOP doesn't show up | Opinion
