Dan Campbell thinks the Detroit Lions’ receivers this season are the best he’s had here. He also thinks Jared Goff looks as sharp as ever – at least in training camp.
Add in a content Jahmyr Gibbs – the Lions just made him the highest paid runner in the NFL – and these are the makings of another special offense.
We just won’t know for sure until at least 8-10 weeks, until their new center, Cade Mays, returns from a broken bone in his wrist.
If all goes well for the Lions, that’s when their biggest offseason free agent signing will make his debut, at least that’s the math based onNFL Network’s reporting.
If it’s eight instead of 10, the Lions center could return for Arizona on Oct. 11. If he makes that game, he’ll miss the first four of the season:
New Orleans, at Buffalo, New York Jets, at Carolina.
Even if he misses 10 weeks, because the Lions have a bye the week before the Green Bay game on Oct. 25, Mays will only miss five games, the four above and Arizona. If he’s back on either timetable, losing him to a fractured bone in his wrist as the Lions did earlier this week doesn’t sound so daunting.
Oh, it’s a blow, no doubt.
Mays showed real promise last season for the Carolina Panthers, and Dan Campbell liked the way he looked in the early days of training camp for the Lions. He wasn’t going to be Frank Ragnow, but he wasn’t going to offer bottom-of-the-league center play, either.
That’s what the Lions got last year, and it changed the Lions’ offense in fundamental and critical ways. Not only was Jared Goff sacked a career-high 38 times last season, but he also navigated a chaotic pocket, and the higher-than-normal pressure rate (for him) showed.
The rushed play led to slightly less efficient play, made worse because the defense often knew what was coming because the Lions couldn’t run the ball like they had in past seasons, especially on third-and-short. This showed in third down conversion rate.
Two years ago, the Lions were fourth in the league, converting third downs into first downs at 47.6 percent. Last season, they ranked 19th. That drop was largely because they couldn’t pick up the 2 or 3 yards on the ground when they absolutely needed to. Not like they had the previous couple of seasons.
They signed Mays to help with that. To help make a little more room for Jahmyr Gibbs, to help buy another split second for Goff. The center spot was their top priority in the offseason.
Next man up
So, yes, they will feel his absence. Whether it’s Seth McLaughlin or Juice Scruggs or even Tate Rateledge – not as likely considering he’d like to stay at right guard and moving him might cause further instability – the offensive line will suffer.
The question is: how much?
Another question: how many games do the Lions need to win to keep their playoff goal in reasonable sight?
The first question is hard to answer considering the other changes on the line. Those include Penei Sewell moving from right to left tackle and rookie first-round pick Blake Miller taking over at right tackle.
No one knew how good the line was going to be anyway; the Lions included. Whatever level it was destined for isn’t going to happen for a while now, and even once Mays is back, he’ll need time to jell with his new teammates.
The second question is easier to figure. If the Lions go 3-2 without Mays, they’ll be in solid shape even as the schedule gets tougher in the back half. If they go 2-2, they’ll hear noise and will probably be a game out of first place in the division, but it won’t be the end of the world.
Fortunately for them, the schedule doesn’t look overwhelming, and the Lions could conceivably go 4-1 or 3-1 without Mays. But then this is the NFL, and what a team looks like on paper this time of year is often nothing like what the team ends up being on the field a month or two from now.
That’s easy to forget, until last season’s bottom-feeders start knocking off the favorites. Happens every year.
So do injuries, and losing Mays is a tough one. As of this moment, though, it’s not a debilitating one.
Contact Shawn Windsor: swindsor@freepress.com. Follow him @shawnwindsor.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Yes, the Lions can survive the loss of their new starting center
