If there's anything you can pencil in about the upcoming series between the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers, it's that Tigers infielder Colt Keith will not be starting against Dodgers lefty ace Tarik Skubal.
"Yeah, I haven't played against a lefty since 2024," he told reporters before Detroit's 3-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday, Aug. 26.
Though left-handed hitters have hit better than right-handed hitters against Skubal this season (.755 OPS vs lefties vs .553 OPS for righties), that hasn't historically been the case for the two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner, who will most likely face a right-handed heavy lineup when he starts at Comerica Park on Friday, Aug. 28. After all, the Tigers often play the platoon
advantage, with several right-handed bench options available for situations just like these.
And believe it or not, the Tigers match up quite nicely against the ace.
While few active Tigers have gotten regular season plate appearances against Skubal, the three who have actually carry good numbers against the lefty. And considering how other Tigers have hit lefties this season, an injury-hampered lineup might have a better chance of beating Skubal and the Dodgers than many experts may believe.
How Tigers match up against Tarik Skubal
Three active Tigers have gotten plate appearances against Skubal, most notably second baseman Gleyber Torres, who has faced the lefty 14 times in his career, most recently as a member of the New York Yankees in 2024.
Over those 14 plate appearances, Torres has gone 3-for-10 with a home run, three walks and just one strikeout. That's good for a 1.100 OPS, which in an admittedly small sample is a higher mark than any qualified hitter has this season (Houston's Yordan Alvarez leads the pack at 1.051).
In other words, you can probably pencil in Torres high in Detroit's lineup on Friday, possibly even in the leadoff position.
Shortstop Javier Báez has faced Skubal in only one game, back in 2021 when Báez was a member of the Chicago Cubs. He went 1-for-2 with an RBI single and was also hit by a pitch, meaning his 1.167 career OPS against Skubal is actually higher than Torres' (in an even smaller sample five years ago, when both Báez and Skubal were very different players, mind you).
But neither Torres nor Báez has the best head-to-head record against Skubal among active Tigers. That would be outfielder Corey Julks, who in 2024 as a member of the Chicago White Sox went 3-for-3 with three singles in the only game where both players matched up. That gives Julks a 1.000 batting average, a 1.000 on-base percentage and a 1.000 slugging percentage against Skubal, with all three hits occurring in Skubal's first Cy Young season.
No other active Tigers have faced Skubal, but there are reasons for optimism for the less-seasoned Detroit batters.
Rookie Max Clark will probably be one of two lefties to start on Friday (along with infielder Kevin McGonigle), as he has been Detroit's everyday center fielder and has reverse splits so far this season. Clark has an .867 OPS against lefties vs a .600 OPS against righties, an unusual but encouraging sign for the young lefty.
Catcher Eduardo Valencia has also mashed against lefties this season, slugging .743 with four home runs and 10 RBIs in 35 plate appearances against southpaws. The same goes for first baseman Spencer Torkelson, whose OPS is 90 points higher against lefties than righties this season (.787 vs .697).
That's not the case for every right-handed Tiger, however. Rookie Hao-Yu Lee has hit better against righties this season than lefties, but also has Detroit's best OPS (.836) since June 1 among Tigers with at least 100 plate appearances. Catcher Dillon Dingler has also hit righties much better than lefties this season, but you can still expect him in the lineup. After all, who has seen more Tarik Skubal pitches in the last year than Dingler?
Tigers lineup prediction vs Skubal
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch will likely feature a right-handed heavy lineup against the lefty Skubal, with a couple everyday lefties thrown into the mix. Here is how that may shake up:
- Gleyber Torres - 2B
- Kevin McGonigle - SS
- Dillon Dingler - DH
- Eduardo Valencia - C
- Hao-Yu Lee - 3B
- Spencer Torkelson - 1B
- Max Clark - CF
- Corey Julks - RF
- Javier Báez - LF
Julks only has six plate appearances for the Tigers this season, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the rookie Ben Malgeri start in his place in right field (though Malgeri only has a .577 OPS against lefties this season). Both Valencia and Dingler should be in the lineup, and with the off day on Thursday, it might not matter who catches and who lands designated hitter duties. None of these batting positions are guaranteed, except for maybe Báez, who has taken nearly 60% of his plate appearances this season from the ninth spot in the order.
As for lefties like Keith, rookie Brett Callahan and utility man Zach McKinstry – don't expect to see them until the Dodgers bring a right-handed reliever into the game. And if this lineup does its job, that may happen sooner than many expect.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: How the Tigers match up against Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal
