As September approaches, summer-like weather could linger across much of the United States as a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean influences weather patterns this fall.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting an abnormally warm start to fall in many parts of the country, including New York.
Meteorological fall begins Tuesday, Sept. 1. The autumnal equinox, which marks the astronomical start of fall, occurs Tuesday, Sept. 22, at 8:05 p.m. EDT.
Here's what New Yorkers can expect this fall.
El Niño could be one of strongest on record
A strong El Niño pattern has been developing in the Pacific Ocean since May, bringing warmer-than-average waters near the equator and influencing weather patterns around the globe, according to AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok.
El Niño
occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than average for an extended period. Its counterpart, La Niña, occurs when those waters are cooler than normal.
AccuWeather said this year's El Niño could rank among the strongest on record. Other factors, including unusually warm waters in the northern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, as well as drought in parts of the country, could also contribute to warmer-than-average temperatures this fall.
New York could see a warm start to fall
AccuWeather forecasts that New York and other Mid-Atlantic states, including New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, could see September feel more like an extension of summer, with above-average temperatures, high humidity and warm nights.
Drought conditions could also persist across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the fall, increasing the potential for wildfires. Recent thunderstorms have helped ease drought conditions in some parts of the East.
Parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Great Plains could get their first significant taste of fall around October, but AccuWeather meteorologists don't expect cooler temperatures to persist throughout the month.
The delayed arrival of cooler weather could have an upside for fall foliage. Sunny days combined with cooler nights can help produce more vibrant colors across the Northeast and Midwest.
Hurricanes could still affect New York
Although El Niño generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, AccuWeather cautions that East Coast states could still experience tropical impacts this fall.
As of Aug. 13, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring several areas of potential tropical development in the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12 about 1,050 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and was forecast to weaken rapidly as it moved over cooler waters. Two other disturbances were also being monitored in the Atlantic, including one near the Bahamas and another farther east, with potential for development.
There was no immediate threat to New York or New Jersey from any of those systems.
However, storms that affect the Carolinas or Florida can sometimes send remnants northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, potentially bringing heavy rain, flooding and strong winds later in the season.
When could New York see its first snow?
The first snowfall of the season typically arrives in higher elevations of the northern Great Plains and Rockies in late September or early October.
In New York, some areas near the Great Lakes and higher elevations could see an early taste of snow in late October. For much of the state, however, the first measurable snow typically doesn't arrive until later in the fall.
The warmer-than-average start to the season means New Yorkers may have to wait a little longer for a sustained transition to colder weather.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Why New York weather may stay warm this fall
