ORCHARD PARK - Never mind that it’s Week 1, and by the time the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans kick off Sunday afternoon at Reliant Stadium, 28 teams in the NFL will still be sitting with 0-0 records.
But hey, it’s never too early to fire up the hype train in the NFL and Texans edge rusher Will Anderson was all too eager to shovel coal into the engine’s firebox.
“This is an AFC Championship matchup,” said Anderson, heaping a whole lot of hyperbole into what will already be a charged-up environment. “It's going to be a great matchup for us, but the type of atmosphere that I'm feeling like it's going to be on Sunday is going to be that AFC Championship-type feel. Two really great teams battling it out.”
Could this be a preview of the AFC Championship?
Absolutely it could. Throughout the offseason the Bills have consistently been one of the top two or three betting favorites to get to SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles for Super Bowl 61 in mid-February, while the Texans have been a sexy Super Bowl pick among some NFL analysts, even though they’ve never even played in an AFC title game since entering the league as an expansion franchise in 2002.
Still, it’s a little too early for Anderson, or anyone else, to be thinking about the Super Bowl when we still have anywhere from 17 to 20 melodramatic one-game seasons to conduct, and for Buffalo the first of those comes in a place that, to put it mildly, has been as welcoming to the Bills as a hand being plunged into an angry hornet’s nest.
However, all of Buffalo’s misery in Houston came with Sean McDermott as head coach. This is Joe Brady’s team now, and even though he witnessed first hand as offensive coordinator the losses there in 2024 and 2025, his message to the team was this:
“It's year one for us and there's nothing that we're going into this year with the mindset of, ‘Oh man, this is what's happened in the past,’” Brady said. “A lot of these guys haven't even been here, so I don't think it's anything. We just gotta make sure we're locked into our details, and it's gonna be an incredible environment, it always is down there. Two good teams that were in the playoffs last year. I don't know if that has any bearing this year, and so it'll be a great test for us.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. CJ Stroud
Allen knows the history in Houston. He has been the nail and the Texans have been the hammer every time he has played a game in that city. Counting the 2019 playoff loss, Allen is 0-4 at Reliant Stadium and he has completed just 52.7% of his passes (67 of 127) for 732 yards with just one touchdown, two picks and 14 sacks. He does have 186 yards rushing (92 in the playoff game) but has not scored.
“They've had some really good defenses in the past and it's no different now,” Allen said. “They're gonna make it tough for us. A team that was obviously in the playoffs last year, we understand what their defense is and has been. They have a fantastic coach over there. They got after us last year, there's no secret about it.”
Stroud didn’t play in last year’s game against Buffalo; he was out with an injury and Davis Mills led the victory which added another layer of disgust to that loss for the Bills. This is a big year for Stroud because the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft, who went on to win NFL offensive rookie of the year, has experienced some regression over the last two seasons which is partly why the Texans have not lavished him with a nine-figure contract extension.
They exercised the fifth-year option so he’s under contract through 2027, but they feel he still has something to prove before they tie themselves to him long term with a salary cap crushing deal. Last year he averaged a career-low 217.2 yards passing per game, and in his last two years he has thrown just 39 TDs compared to 20 interceptions, and that doesn’t count last year’s nightmarish four-interception divisional-round playoff loss at New England.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
∎ LT Dion Dawkins: Last year, playing through a head injury, Dawkins had a brutal game against the Texans as Pro Football Focus charged him with two sacks and six total pressures allowed on 44 pass block snaps. In the 2024 game in Houston, he was charged with three pressures on 36 snaps. Dawkins has said throughout the offseason that he’s in better shape this season, and we’ll find out pretty quickly if that matters against this Texans’ edge rushing group led by Anderson and Danielle Hunter who combined for 27 sacks and an astounding 176 QB pressures.
∎ WR DJ Moore: As he tries to make a big first impression with his new team, Moore could not have a tougher opening test as he’ll be going against a Houston secondary that is one of the best in the NFL, led by All-Pro CB Derek Stingley. One of the big offseason storylines centered on how some believe Moore is Allen’s first legitimate No. 1-type receiver since Stefon Diggs bolted town after 2023. But there are many other analysts who do not believe Moore is a true No. 1 and he’s itching to prove them wrong.
∎ CB Christian Benford: McDermott didn’t usually ask Benford to shadow particular WRs for an entire game, but when he did, Benford almost always shut his man down. We’re not sure how new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will operate, but it’s possible that Benford travels with Houston’s top man, Nico Collins. The Texans are missing two of their best WRs in Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins, so Collins is going to be the key target for Stroud, especially on early downs. Last year, he averaged 17.1 yards per reception on 87 early-down targets, second-best among 66 qualified WRs.
∎ DT Ed Oliver: He’s coming home to Houston after missing last year’s game due to an injury, and you know he wants to put on a show. A healthy Oliver is paramount to the success of the Bills’ defense and we saw that in the few games he was able to play in 2025. In this new Leonhard odd-man front, Oliver should have a chance to exploit some one-on-one matchups against a suspect middle of the Texans offensive line.
Houston Texans who should impact the game
∎ RB David Montgomery: The veteran was signed away from the Lions in free agency and he is a punishing runner who averaged 5.6 yards per attempt last season on runs up the middle which was the best of all qualified RBs, but that was behind a strong Lions’ offensive line. The Bills really need to stifle Montgomery and RB Woody Marks because last year, the Texans were 7-0 when they rushed for 120 or more yards.
∎ RT Trent Brown: With free agent acquisition Braden Smith out due to injury, Brown has been elevated to a starting role and the Bills need to take advantage of the aging 33-year-old. It is expected that Leonhard will not be predictable in where he lines up his five men up front, so Greg Rousseau, Bradley Chubb and Michael Hoecht could all get a look at Brown from the left edge, and all have the ability to win one-on-one.
∎ NCB Jalen Pitre: He sometimes gets overlooked on the Texans defense because of Stingley and the great edge rushers, but Pitre is critical to the unit’s success. As a former safety who has moved into the slot, he gives the Texans great flexibility in their coverage schemes. He, Stingley, CB Kamari Lassiter and FS Calen Bullock each made four interceptions last year, so there are playmakers everywhere in this secondary.
∎ LB Henry To’oTo’o: Against a defense as good as Houston’s, an offense needs a little help and To’oTo’o is a notoriously sloppy tackler. He has a career missed tackle rate of 18.4% according to PFF. Think about that, he misses a tackle nearly once in every five attempts. When you factor in that he also has allowed a completion into his coverage area 80.5% of the time, with 972 yards gained after the catch, this could be a prime opportunity for Bills WR Khalil Shakir in the short and intermediate areas where he excels. Last season Shakir’s 541 yards after catch ranked fourth among all WRs.
Sal’s prediction: Texans 24, Bills 20
This is a tough opening assignment for the Bills and it’s difficult to envision a victory given their ugly recent past in Houston. Yes, it’s a new season and nothing that happened in the past should matter, but one thing that hasn’t changed is Houston may have the best defense in the NFL. Until the Bills can prove they can handle that, on the road in Reliant Stadium, the Texans are the pick to spoil Joe Brady’s debut.
Buffalo Bills 2026 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m.
- Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
- Week 9: Monday, Nov.9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 13: at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Texans prediction, keys to challenging season opener
