ORCHARD PARK - On the heels of surviving a game against a talented team that was absolutely desperate to win in order to change the arc of its season, the Buffalo Bills have to do it again Sunday afternoon.
Just like the Los Angeles Chargers, whom Buffalo beat 24-16 on a day when its normally high-functioning offense could not have played much worse, the New England Patriots will be coming to Highmark Stadium in a similar situation, really needing a victory to get its season on track.
The defending AFC champions got annihilated 35-6 by the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday and at 1-2 are in danger of losing touch with the 3-0 Bills in the AFC East. If the Patriots were to lose Sunday, they would fall three games behind and the Bills would also have
the early advantage in the head-to-head tiebreaker.
“My concern level is very high for this football team,” Patriots coach Mike Vrabel said after watching his offense turn the ball over three times, twice in Jacksonville territory including once when they had driven to the 2 at the end of the first half with a chance to cut their deficit to 14-10.
When he was asked about now having to go to Buffalo for a game that in some ways feels like a must-win, Vrabel replied, “It's going to start with me and my ability to teach, my ability to get the guys in the right spots, and then also have a practice plan that I feel like gives us the best chance to be ready on Sunday.”
Interestingly, the Bills have to hope that history doesn’t repeat itself. Think back to 2025. The Bills were 4-0 and the Patriots were 2-2 coming to Buffalo, the same scenario as this week where, if the Bills had won that game they would have been three games up and owned the tiebreaker, obviously an envious position.
Instead, they laid an egg and lost 23-20, and that game flipped the script for both teams. That victory was the second of what became a 10-game Patriots winning streak which ultimately ended Buffalo’s five-year reign atop the AFC East.
Well, here we are again, and the Bills are fully aware that they can’t play the way they did against the Chargers and expect to beat the Patriots.
“I’ve got to start with pointing the thumb at myself,” Bills coach Joe Brady said. “Everything we put on that field is a reflection of me. … It’s losing football. In order to win the game, you have to make sure you don’t lose it. I thought we did a lot out there (Sunday) to lose it. I hope they are pissed off. We didn’t play our best and there’s a standard, but we found a way to win and they earned it. I’m never going to apologize for that, but there’s a lot for us to clean up.”
Buffalo Bills key to victory
Clean up the mistakes. The Bills’ offense looked unstoppable in the first two weeks as it piled up 77 points. Well, we learned how they can be stopped Sunday, and they were the ones doing the stopping. Yes, the Chargers defense played well, but the Bills offense turned the ball over five times and committed four holding penalties and two false starts.
Despite their 1-2 start, the Patriots have played well on defense as they rank fifth in yards allowed per game (278.3) and third in passing yards (170.0), and a big part of that is their average time to pressure of 2.49 seconds is fourth-fastest. The Bills cannot afford to be as sloppy because if they are, they won’t be as lucky this time.
New England Patriots key to victory
QB Drake Maye can’t be as awful as he’s been in the first three weeks of the season. It’s really that simple for the Patriots. “Just unacceptable,” Maye said of his three-turnover performance against the Jaguars, though he could have been talking about all three of the games he has played this year.
In his breakthrough second NFL season, Maye was a 2025 NFL MVP candidate when he threw 31 touchdown passes compared to eight interceptions in guiding the Patriots to a 14-3 record. Through three games this season, he’s thrown one TD and six picks, and he looks lost in his decision making and execution.
Bills vs Patriots matchup to watch
DJ Moore has clearly established himself as Josh Allen’s primary target. Allen attempted only 26 passes against the Chargers and 10 were targeted to Moore who caught six for 67 yards, three of those converting key third downs. No one else did much of anything in the passing game.
The Patriots have an excellent secondary led by star CB Christian Gonzalez and reliable Carlton Davis, and they will be a difficult test for Moore and the other Buffalo receivers. Gonzalez has allowed just six receptions on 17 targets for 38 yards and the Patriots might travel him with Moore, meaning Allen may have to look elsewhere.
Who wins? Bills 26, Patriots 20
It would be hard to fathom the Buffalo offense playing as poorly as it did against the Chargers, so New England might be catching Allen at the wrong time, eager to make amends. He admitted the Bills stole that game and said he needs to be way better moving forward.
New England needs this game badly, and the best way to win it will be to continue playing stout defense, and help the struggling Maye by getting RB TreVeyon Henderson going. He has played just two games and has only 99 yards, but he is dangerous and the Bills found that out last season when he crushed them for 148 yards on 14 carries in the game played at Gillette Stadium.
What time does the Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game start?
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. at Highmark Stadium.
Who is favored to win Bills vs Patriots?
The Bills have opened as a 6.5-point favorite for the game. The money line is Bills minus-325 (bet $325 to win $100) and Patriots plus-260 (bet $100 to win $260). The over-under is 48.5.
What channel is Bills vs Patriots game?
Cable/Network TV: CBS. The game will be available locally via the following stations: WROC channel 8 (Rochester area), WIVB channel 4 (Buffalo area), WTVH channel 5 (Syracuse area), WKTV channel 2 (Utica area), WENY channel 36 (Elmira area), WRGB channel 6 (Albany area), and WBNG channel 12 (Binghamton area).
How can you stream Bills vs. Patriots game?
Online streaming services: You can watch games on NFL.com and the NFL mobile app, and you can subscribe to NFL+, the league’s own streaming service, though you can’t cast the games to your TV - you must watch on your phone or tablet.
TV streaming: You can also stream games if you have subscriptions to Spectrum, DirecTV Choice, Fubo Sports, Sling, Vidgo, Hulu + Live TV, YouTubeTV + NFL Sunday Ticket, and Paramount+.
On the radio: How to listen to the Bills vs Patriots game
You can listen on SiriusXM satellite radio on channel 193 (Bills feed) and channel 262 (Patriots feed), and on traditional radio, the Bills Radio Network has stations all across the state. Chris Brown has the play-by-play, Eric Wood is the analyst, and Steve Tasker is the sideline reporter. The network includes:
- Rochester (WAIO 95.1 FM);
- Buffalo (WGRF 96.9 FM);
- Syracuse (WSKO 1260 AM);
- Albany (WOFX 92.5 FM);
- Utica (WKLL 94.9 FM);
- Dunkirk (WDOE 1410 AM);
- Hornell (WKPQ 105.3 FM);
- Elmira (WMTT 94.7 FM);
- Jamestown (WWSE 93.3 FM);
- Olean (WPIG 95.7 FM);
- Ogdensburg (WQTK 92.7 FM);
- Watertown (WOTT 94.1 FM);
- Bradford, Pa. (WBRR 100.1 FM);
- Cortland/Ithaca (WIII 99.9 FM);
- Auburn (WAUB 1590 AM);
- Geneva (WGVA 1240 AM);
- Binghamton (WENE 1430 AM);
- Newark (WACK 1420 AM);
- Cobleskill/Schoharie (WSDE 1190 AM);
- Williamsport, PA (WRAK 1400 AM);
- Erie, Pa. (WRKT 104.9 FM);
- New York City (WEPN 1050 AM);
- West Palm Beach, Fla. (WESP 106.3 FM);
- Montreal, Canada (CKGM 690 AM);
- Ottawa, Canada (CFGO 1200 AM);
- Toronto, Canada (CHUM 1050 AM).
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Patriots arrive desperate as Bills try to avoid 2025 repeat
