ORCHARD PARK - For as excited as Joe Brady was to get a victory in his debut as the Buffalo Bills’ head coach, he knew better than to hang on the rim in celebration of the dunk his team delivered on the Houston Texans.
It was far from a perfect performance, and even as he was discarding his shirt in the celebratory locker room as his players cheered him on, Brady knew it.
“All three phases weren’t good enough,” Brady said Monday after he’d had a chance to watch the tape which was quite a statement given that the offense and special teams were, for the most part, outstanding.
He lamented too many penalties (10 for 85 yards) and that was certainly a problem because all three phases were indeed guilty, but he said it went beyond that and some of the
mistakes weren’t limited to the defense.
“I think sometimes when you look at a box score, it can paint a picture of a lot of things either good or bad, but when you actually watch it, there were a lot of smoke detectors out there,” he said. “Offensively, we put the ball on the ground. It can show that there were no takeaways or turnovers, but we had some turnover-worthy plays.”
OK, he had a point. Twice on what turned out to be the game-winning drive, the Bills nearly blew their chance to win as James Cook lost a fumble that O’Cyrus Torrence alertly recovered, and then Houston’s Kamari Lassiter had an interception right in his hands and dropped it, one play before he got burned by Joshua Palmer for the deciding TD.
So in that respect, Brady was right. It was far from perfect, and he doesn’t have too much time to get things fixed because the Bills are hosting the Detroit Lions Thursday night in the regular-season debut of Highmark Stadium.
Still, Buffalo’s offense looked unstoppable as it scored 36 points and gained 409 yards on just 52 snaps across less than 24 minutes of possession time against arguably the NFL’s best defense. That was enormously impressive.
As for the defense, it created a couple of turnovers including the game-saving sack/forced fumble by Greg Rousseau, but as defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard said, in between Rousseau’s two sack/forced fumble plays, “there was a lot of ugly.”
All of it makes for a fascinating matchup with the Lions. Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Jared Goff
Allen was magnificent in chasing away the ghosts in Houston and shredding a defense that had its way with him in the previous two meetings. One of the keys to his success was that he attacked downfield as Brady got away from some of those maddening behind the line of scrimmage throws that he relied too much on in the past.
There were still 12 throws within nine yards of the line, but what stood out were Allen’s numbers down the field. In the intermediate 10-19-yard range, Allen was 7 of 7 for 131 yards with a yards per attempt of 18.7. On balls that traveled at least 20 yards in the air, he was 4 of 7 for 155 yards and two TDs and a YPA of 22.1. The 11 completions on passes of more than 10 air yards tied his one-game career-high. Last year he completed just 60.4% of his intermediate passes and his yards per attempt were 10.6, and on deep balls it was a 43.4% completion rate and a 12.5 YPA.
“I thought he played the style of game I wanted him to play,” Brady said. “I thought he went out there and he was aggressive. When shots were there, there were opportunities to go take it. He came out ready to rock. I thought that was good. Josh was understanding what we were trying to get done and executed at a high level.”
Goff was methodical and efficient in the Lions’ overtime 31-30 survival of the Saints, 26 of 39 for 206 yards and two TDs, but 28 of his attempts were within nine yards of the line, the classic dink and dunk approach. He also caught a huge break when his fumble that was returned for a touchdown was overturned by replay, even though it still looked like he fumbled. Granted, he was hurt by several drops by WR Jameson Williams, but Goff will need to be a little more daring against the Bills.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ TE Dalton Kincaid: As Allen said after the game, he was a stud in Houston with a career-best 130 yards. This is exactly what we’ve all wanted out of Kincaid and now that he’s healthy, knock on wood, maybe he’s about to deliver a breakout season. When he played in 2025 he was a threat down the field as his 14.6-yard average per catch was second-best among TEs with at least 30 targets. In Week 1, he averaged 26 yards per catch and now he plays a Lions team missing their injured two starting safeties, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch.
▶ RG O’Cyrus Torrence: The Bills’ line did a great job in pass protection last week, but the run blocking left a bit to be desired as they couldn’t get James Cook rolling and they finished with just 86 yards. Torrence had a rough day as a run blocker and now the interior of the line has to deal with the Lions' outstanding DT duo of 2025 first-round pick Tyleik Williams, a 327-pounder who can be a load to move, and 315-pound Alim McNeil who is another stud, though someone who is prone to miss a tackle.
▶ DT Deone Walker: He was a beast with six tackles including a sack and another for a loss. In fact, on the six tackles he made, five of them were considered stops, defined by Pro Football Focus as a tackle that caused a failed play for the offense. On those six tackles he was in on, the Texans netted minus-6 yards. He and Ed Oliver, who also played very well, will have another chance to be difference-makers against a Lions’ offensive line that is without starting center C Cade Mays who is on IR, and lists LG Christian Mahogany, who did not finish the Saints game, and RT Blake Miller as questionable.
▶ LB Dorian Williams: With Goff’s short passing tendencies, he’ll be looking to exploit Williams who remains a liability in pass coverage, throwing to RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta, as well as WR Amon-Ra St. Brown who excels in the short zones. Williams was confused on the play where David Montgomery was left all alone for a walk-in TD reception that gave the Texans a 28-27 lead. He also allowed two receptions on two targets for 19 yards and he had a missed tackle. Williams played 53 snaps, but rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr (8) may push in for more playing time.
Detroit Lions who should impact the game
▶ RB Jahmyr Gibbs: He’s one of the best in the league and he was the focal point of Detroit’s offense in its opener as he carried 29 times for 156 yards and two TDs, plus caught five passes for 30 yards. However, when the Saints limited his gains, the Lions often didn’t recover as they punted seven times with four three-and-outs. Gibbs has 51 TDs in 50 career games, making him the sixth player in NFL history to reach 50 in 50 or fewer games, joining Chuck Foreman (44 games), Steve Van Buren (45), Jim Brown (46), Larry Johnson (48) and Marcus Allen (49).
▶ WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: He is Goff’s favorite target, but his 10 catches on 14 targets against the Saints totaled a mere 67 yards, though two of those went for touchdowns. He’s a tough physical matchup similar to Houston’s Nico Collins, and just because he’s a little smaller means nothing. He will be a tough matchup for whoever ends up on him, and many DBs and LBs will get the chance because he can line up inside (28 snaps against the Saints) and outside (41) and be effective all over the field. The last time he played the Bills in 2024 he caught 14 of 18 targets for 193 yards and a TD.
▶ DE Aidan Hutchinson: The Bills O-line did a great job against the Texans’ standout edge rushers, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, and it won’t get any easier going against Hutchinson who might be better than either of those two. “He can wreck a game,” Brady said of the player who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft. Hutchinson is as relentless an edge rusher as there is in the league, a non-stop motor, and the Bills will need to come up with another great protection plan including chips form their 12 and 13 personnel groups to contain him. In the Lions opener he had 10 QB pressures, two sacks and five tackles.
▶ CB Rock Ya-Sin: He has been forced into starting duty because 2024 first-round pick Terrion Arnold got into legal trouble and the Lions cut bait. Ya-Sin is a backup level player and the Bills should look to attack him the way the Saints did. He gave up seven completions on 10 targets into his coverage area totaling 54 yards and a TD. The Lions’ boundary CBs Ya-Sin and DJ Reed are definitely compromised due to the absences of Branch and Joseph in the back end.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 37, Lions 30
This should be an electric night in Orchard Park as the Bills - after a few soft openings at their new stadium - turn on the lights for real in primetime. Hopefully, the new field that was just laid down a couple weeks ago holds up, but that might be the least of Detroit’s worries if Buffalo’s offense is as efficient as it was against a great Houston defense.
Allen and the Bills’ pass catchers should have excellent matchups against the Lions’ injury-plagued and underwhelming secondary and if they play another clean game and keep Allen protected, Lions coach Dan Campbell knows it could be a long night.
“These guys are obviously a really good opponent, man,” Campbell said. “Can't say enough about this quarterback. He's a catalyst for them, and it's a good O-line, they’ve got weapons, it's a good back. We’ve got our hands full. It's opening night out at their place Thursday night. It'll be electric, going to be a great atmosphere. We'll be looking forward to that, but excellent opponent. This will be a big-time game here early in the year.”
Buffalo Bills 2026 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, W 36-31.
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m.
- Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
- Week 9: Monday, Nov.9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 13: at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Lions prediction, keys to historic Highmark Stadium opener
