ORCHARD PARK - Generally speaking, blitzing Josh Allen is not a great idea for an opposing defense, but that theory may get put to the test Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium.
The Patriots come to town with a defense that ranks third in the NFL for most frequent blitz rate at 43.8%, and Allen and the Bills’ offensive line will need to be on point, something they really weren’t last week against the Chargers.
“Generally defenses when they do blitz, there is more area, more space for your receivers and tight ends, especially if you can get it protected, or at least know where your problems are and have answers to those problems,” Allen said. “Creates a real advantage for the offense, in my opinion, but
again, if you're not tuned into what's going on and you slide it the wrong way and you get pressure right away, that's no fun for any quarterback in the league.”
Last week the Chargers were able to get heat on Allen primarily with their front four, pressuring him on 38.7% of his 31 dropbacks despite using just seven blitzes. Edge rushers Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu had a combined 11 pressures and 2.5 sacks of LA’s four sacks. Simply put, it was not a great day for Buffalo’s offensive line on passing plays as they also committed three holding penalties and two false starts.
“We had multiple penalties, we had six total offensively,” offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael said. “That's not winning football. The pre-snap penalties, those can't happen. Sometimes that's the cost of doing business in football games; those happen, but obviously technique, fundamentals, and those things have to get better.
“They present a ton of challenges defensively. From their front all the way to the back end, they get a lot of ball disruption, hands on the balls; they're attacking, they're physical, they tackle well. So I think we're gonna have our work cut out for us this week.”
Why blitzing Josh Allen is usually a losing bet
The obvious reason you don’t blitz Allen is because he’s so elusive and if he escapes the pressure and there are defenders caught upfield, that opens running lanes in front of him and he can scramble for big gains. That, and as a ninth-year veteran he’s also adept at knowing when the blitz is coming and making defenses pay by either finding his hot read underneath or taking advantage of a one-on-one shot down the field.
That’s why the blitz rates the last four-plus year against him are relatively low. He was blitzed on just 23.3% of his dropbacks in 2022, 27.7% in 2023, 26.5% in 2024, 28.8% in 2025, and through three games this season it’s 29.9%, but that’s an inflated number because in Week 2, the Lions decided to send extra rushers on 52.6% of his dropbacks.
How did that work out for Detroit? Allen completed 12 of 17 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown despite suffering one sack and nine pressures. Still, the Patriots aren’t likely to be scared off by that and probably won’t change their tactics.
“Our identity needs to be about affecting the quarterback,” Vrabel said when he was asked about the reliance on the blitz. “It needs to be about creating turnovers and being able to force teams into longer yardage situations. If that, each week, requires us to pressure, then I think that's what we'll try to do.”
Patriots aren't likely to change their defensive identity
Leaning on the blitz is a trend that began for the Patriots in the postseason last January. They ranked first among the 12 playoff teams in blitz rate (43.9%) and pressure rate (50.9%), and that led to league highs in sacks (13), tackles for loss (23), and takeaways (six).
But while it was quite effective then, it hasn’t been quite as helpful this year because the Patriots’ aggressiveness has resulted in a ranking of 18th in pressure rate at 35.2% and they are tied for 12th in sack percentage at 6.7%.
In the season-opening loss to Seattle, the Patriots blitzed Drew Lock 50% of the time and Lock went 8-of-12 for 108 yards and a TD. In the Week 2 win over ancient Aaron Rodgers of the Steelers, it was a mismatch as they blitzed 47.7% of the time and the immobile Rodgers was pathetic, 9 of 19 for 47 yards with an interception and two sacks.
In last week’s 35-6 loss to Jacksonville, they blitzed Trevor Lawrence on 53.1% of his dropbacks, and while he completed 11 of 15 throws, they went for only 86 yards and he threw an interception and was sacked once. So yes, it has been a mixed bag.
Now it’s Allen’s turn to see what he can accomplish. For the season he has been pressured on 40.6% of his dropbacks which is sixth-most in the league among QBs who have dropped back to pass at least 100 times. In terms of pressure to sack percentage, Allen has gone down 19.5% of the time which is eighth-most.
“That's for them to decide, right?” head coach Joe Brady said when asked about the Patriots’ tendency to blitz. “It's for us to just be able to execute with whatever the play is. If they want to play man, they want to blitz, they want to play zone, we have to be able to execute. We know they have the ability to do it all, and anytime you play a guy like Josh Allen, you're not going to get exactly what they've shown on tape. And so we have to be ready for it. It will be a tremendous challenge for him, for myself, and for our team.”
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Patriots blitz more than almost any NFL team. Josh Allen is waiting.
