ORCHARD PARK - The Buffalo Bills’ defense clearly took some positive steps forward last week inlimiting the Chargers to a single touchdown aided by a turnover that set Los Angeles up inside Buffalo territory in the first few seconds of the game.
From then on, despite getting put in several other bad situations due to four more turnovers from Josh Allen and the offense, the Bills’ defense put forth an outstanding effort and all the Chargers could muster was three field goals in what became a 24-16 Bills victory.
With red flags flying above Highmark Stadium after the Bills allowed 62 points in the first two games, allowing just 16 to Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert despite less than ideal field position was impressive.
“To me, you don't over
stress like how you get there,” defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard said. “You got to win, right? You're trying to find a way to win, and there's going to be weeks the offense bails us out. Obviously, (the Chargers game) was one where we had to pick them up a little bit in certain spots.
“I think it's great our guys wanted to be put in some tough situations and show the offense that we could respond and do our part. I don't care how it happens. I want us to step up in big moments, and the tricky part is you don't know when that's going to be.”
One of the areas Leonhard knew he had to upgrade this season was run defense, and while he’s not ready to pat himself on the back just yet, the Bills have been better so far than they were in 2025. They rank middle of the pack in yards allowed per game (107.0) and yards per attempt (4.0), but one key stat they are currently second-best in the NFL is stuff percentage.
A stuff means you stop a running play for zero or negative yardage and according to Next Gen Stats the Bills have done that on 22.5% of the 80 running plays they’ve faced. That will be an interesting aspect to watch Sunday when they host the New England Patriots who boast a physical and powerful running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, plus ex-Bills blocking fullback Reggie Gilliam.
“Up and down, right? It's been a little inconsistent,” Leonhard said of the run defense to date. “And the number one thing is tackling. I thought we were inconsistent in how we tackled (against LA). But then every time I got to a certain point in the (film review), and as I'm watching it, grading it, every time I wanted to say that we didn't tackle well, we come up with a huge stop, or make a one-on-one tackle out in space.”
Joe Brady admitted he’s not a “stat guy” so he doesn’t really care too much about rankings. What he’s focusing on is whether or not his young defense is showing improvement week to week.
“I think stats sometimes will lie to you. It's like, hey, what does it look like on tape?” he said. “I think the guys are doing a really good job of being intentional about. We've had three different teams in terms of the type of run schemes that we're getting, and it's so good for us in terms of being able to play different types of run schemes, how to approach the blocks, and kind of roll with it. There's obviously some runs that you know we got to do a better job attacking or fitting, but I think you can see the growth from us from game one to game three.”
Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Drake Maye
This is going to be an interesting showdown between two quarterbacks who figure to be going at it in twice-a-year AFC East showdowns for many seasons to come, both of whom are looking to rebound from subpar performances last week.
Allen was uncharacteristically bad against the Chargers with two picks, a lost fumble and almost a second lost fumble. He looked jittery and confused in a way we’ve rarely seen over the past several years and the Bills were extremely fortunate to have survived. You would expect him to bounce back in a big way.
Maye is in a different place than Allen right now. He has played terribly all season and is a big reason why the Patriots have started 1-2. If you thought Allen looked confused last week, Maye has looked that way dating back to the end of 2025 and throughout New England’s four-game postseason run to the Super Bowl.
However, while Maye is obviously struggling, it’s not all on him because losing star WR A.J. Brown in Week 1 was a big blow for the Patriots offense. Outside of a 63-yard reception in Week 2 against the Steelers, free-agent signee Romeo Doubs has been a disappointment with just six catches on 11 targets, two of the catches coming from backup QB Tommy DeVito last week in garbage time. The Patriots’ most productive WR has been former Bill Mack Hollins (12 catches for 156 yards) and that’s not a player the Bills need to be too worried about.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ TE Dalton Kincaid: The Patriots have done an excellent job erasing tight ends from the equation thus far. Seattle’s AJ Barner had two catches for 13 yards, Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth was 4-32 and Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange 3-32. Kincaid is far more dangerous than any of them, but he’s also coming off a quiet game against the Chargers after two great games to start the season. The Bills need to get him back involved.
▶ RT Spencer Brown: He struggled a bit in the first two games which was understandable given he was facing equal parts of Houston’s Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, and Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, three of the best pass rushers in the NFL. But last week against the Chargers he allowed zero pressures on 31 pass block sets per Pro Football Focus as the Chargers attacked Dion Dawkins on the other side. Brown was also his usual beast mode as a run blocker. He’ll be put to the test by edge rushers like Dre’Mont Jones and Elijah Ponder, plus whoever the Patriots will send on their array of blitzes.
▶ LB Dorian Williams: He played very well against the Chargers and you can make the case that he has been the Bills’ best inside LB because Terrel Bernard is having trouble shedding blocks and making plays against the run. That’s Williams’ strong suit, but he’s also been more effective in pass coverage where in the past he has been a liability. His play is keeping rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr glued to the bench (just 29 defensive snaps).
▶ NCB Dee Alford: It has not been a good start to his Bills’ career and the Patriots may try to get him matched up against Stevenson out of the backfield, slot WR Pop Douglas, or TE Hunter Henry. Per PFF charting, Alford already has five missed tackles and he has allowed 12 completions in 17 throws into his coverage area for 204 yards, the worst figures on the team.
New England Patriots who should impact the game
▶ LT Will Campbell: The No. 4 overall pick in the 2025 draft had a rocky first season and there was even talk of moving him inside to play guard. But he has been much better this season as he has allowed just four QB pressures and one sack despite facing three good defenses with the Seahawks, Steelers and Jaguars. Last week Campbell did not allow a pressure on 38 pass blocking snaps, his first game with over 30 pass blocks and zero pressures allowed. He’ll need to be at his best considering the Patriots’ offensive line is decimated by injury and has to go against the edge-rushing duo of Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb who have a combined 35 pressures and 7.5 sacks.
▶ WR Romeo Doubs: The Patriots signed him away as a free agent from the Packers and gave him $39 million guaranteed after watching him catch 202 passes for 2,424 yards and 21 TDs in 59 games for Green Bay. They have not gotten any bang for the buck yet, but if CB Christian Benford can’t play, he may get some quality chances going against Buffalo’s young CBs Maxwell Hairston and Davison Igbinosun. The Patriots drove into Jaguars territory seven times last week but failed to score a touchdown, their most drives in opponent territory without a touchdown since Week 8, 2003, against the Browns, and Doubs is part of the problem.
▶ DT Christian Barmore: He’s a 315-pound beast in the middle of the defensive line who can be tough to move in the run game, same as his interior partner Milton Williams. And one of the best things Barmore and Williams do when they aren’t creating havoc themselves is eat up double teams which allows the Patriots ILBs Christian Elliss and Robert Spillane to shoot gaps in the run game, and frees up their blitzers to get a one-on-one matchup, or even a clean path to the QB.
▶ CB Christian Gonzalez: He’s battling a shoulder injury but is expected to play, and that’s not great for the Bills because he’s one of the best cover CBs in the league. It would not be a surprise if he shadows D.J. Moore in the game. Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, perhaps the best WR in the NFL, had eight catches for 122 yards in the season opener against the Patriots. Only five of those yards came when Gonzalez was in coverage per PFF. He was asked who is the toughest CB he has faced in the NFL and he said, “I think Christian Gonzalez had the best game against us for sure.”
Sal’s prediction: Bills 26, Patriots 20
It would be hard to fathom the Buffalo offense playing as poorly as it did against the Chargers, so New England might be catching Allen at the wrong time, eager to make amends. He admitted the Bills stole that game and said he needs to be way better moving forward.
New England needs this game badly, and the best way to win it will be to continue playing stout defense and help the struggling Maye by getting Henderson going. He has played just two games and has only 99 yards, but he’s dangerous and the Bills found that out last season when he crushed them for 148 yards on 14 carries in the game played at Gillette Stadium.
Buffalo Bills 2026 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, W 36-31.
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs.Los Angeles Chargers, W 24-16.
- Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
- Week 9: Monday, Nov.9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 13: at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Patriots prediction, key matchups in AFC East clash
