ORCHARD PARK - For a defensive coordinator, giving up 62 points in the first two games of a season is about as disappointing as it gets, until you remember the two most important numbers of all.
That would be two, as in Buffalo Bills victories, and zero, as in Buffalo Bills defeats.
As Jim Leonhard prepares his still developing defense for Sunday’s next test against dangerous Justin Herbert and the desperate Los Angeles Chargers, he fully understands that things could certainly be worse for him and his players had Josh Allen and his offensive pals not rolled up 77 points in the wins over Houston and Detroit.
“It feels great after a win, right,” Leonhard said the day after the Bills gave up 31 points for the second week in a row in their victory
over the Lions, “but to be sitting here 2-0 … that's a great place to be. Obviously, there's lots of things to clean up, and the standards will be high and we will chase those. Identify issues and go attack them. That's always going to be the mentality, and to do that after wins is a blessing in this league.”
The Bills have done a decent enough job against the run, an area that was a major weakness for them in the old Sean McDermott scheme last season. However, the pass defense has been problematic and while some of the inflated numbers have to do with both the Texans and Lions falling behind Buffalo and needing to throw, there are clearly issues that need fixing, both in the rush and coverage.
The Bills have seven sacks, and the best part about that is two of those by Greg Rousseau have resulted in fumbles, but they’re also generating a QB pressure rate of just 27.9% which ranks 30th according to NextGenStats, and they’re 21st in average time to pressure at 2.71 seconds, indications that CJ Stroud and Jared Goff had too much time to throw and the result is 273 passing yards allowed per game, which ranks 30th.
“I feel like we know what we're doing, what we're supposed to be doing, and now we just got to go out there and execute,” LB Terrel Bernard said. “We've had a couple plays here or there that really can affect the series, affect the game, and once we clear those up, I feel like we'll be a really good defense.
“We knew it was going to be a challenge learning a new system, but I feel like we've done a good job, the coaches have done a good job getting the information to us. I feel like it's on us now to really execute at a high level.”
The Chargers are 0-2 and they have scored just 28 points in losing to the Cardinals and Raiders, but Herbert is one of those QBs who can explode at any moment, and you can bet former Dolphins head coach and new Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel - who finally has a legit QB to work with - is eager to get his passing game going against a vulnerable Buffalo defense.
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Justin Herbert
Allen is coming off a dynamic Week 2 performance that included five total touchdowns which earned him his 19th AFC offensive player of the week award. It doesn't seem possible that he keeps getting better, but that's exactly what he's doing., but that’s the case.
“I think he's playing at a high level,” Joe Brady said. “And I think that there's still more there and he knows it. And that should be a scary thing, but that's a good thing for us. So just continue pushing him to have that same mentality, the same mindset, and do everything he can to go do it again.”
Herbert is coming off a dud of a Week 2 effort in which he threw for just 192 yards, was picked off twice, was sacked three times, and fumbled three times though the Chargers recovered all of those. However, he has obviously seen what Stroud and Goff were able to do against the Bills’ defense and in a game he knows the Chargers simply have to win, he’s going to be a challenge.
“I think it's inconsistent right now,” Leonhard said of the defense. “We're kind of a boom or bust defense, and that's not OK long term. That's not sustainable, right? We're pretty much either three-and-out or touchdown right now over two games. I don't know exactly what the numbers are, but that's not far off from the truth. And obviously, that's not a sustainable way to win and play good defense throughout the course of this season.”
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ LT Dion Dawkins: His weight loss has clearly worked to his benefit as a pass blocker and he’s been the best protector of Allen by far through two games. On 79 pass snaps, Dawkins has allowed just two pressures, and he’ll need to continue that because he will see his share of veteran edge rusher Khalil Mack who, even in his 13th NFL season, can still bring it. On 53 pass rush snaps Mack has five pressures and a sack, and the other edge rusher, speedy 266-pounder Tuli Tuipulotu, has six pressures.
▶ WR Joshua Palmer: He has been targeted just three times, but two of those have resulted in 34- and 43-yard TDs. He may play a much more significant role because it looks like Keon Coleman is not going to play, and there’s also a chance that DJ Moore sits out. Even if Moore plays, he might be slowed by his shoulder injury, so Palmer’s snap count may take a big jump.
▶ DT Ed Oliver: He returned to practice Thursday and seemed to be moving well as the hip spasms that knocked him out of the Detroit game do not appear to be an issue. The middle of the Chargers’ offensive line has been poor and it is also ravaged by injury, so Oliver and DT Deone Walker have a chance to create some chaos up the middle.
▶ S Cole Bishop: Many expected Bishop to emerge as a star this season after his impressive jump in 2025, but he has not been too impactful in the first two games. He has allowed nine receptions on 10 targets into his coverage area for 90 yards and a TD per Pro Football Focus. Herbert has weapons in WR Ladd McConkey who is a difficult matchup because of his route running and speed, WR Tre Harris has potential big-play ability, and inconsistent WR Quentin Johnson (6-2, 208 pounds) and the lone healthy TE, Oronde Gadsden (6-5, 236), both present size problems.
Los Angeles Chargers who should impact the game
▶ RB Omarion Hampton: The bruising 220-pound 2025 first-round pick can be a load to bring down (112 of his 135 yards have come after contact) but he has also lost a fumble in each of the first two games. Obviously, the Chargers would love to test Buffalo’s run defense while also playing ball control to keep Allen off the field, but their offensive line is banged up as two starters won’t play, plus TEs Charlie Kolar and David Njoku who are strong run blockers are both ruled out.
▶ WR Ladd McConkey: He is by far the most dangerous player on the Chargers’ offense, but right now he’s dealing with a hip injury and might not be at peak performance. He has eight catches for 117 yards in the first two games, but he was targeted only three times and caught all three for 35 yards against the Raiders. He splits his time between the slot and boundary, and against the Bills, the Chargers may want to use him more on the inside because NCB Dee Alford is not off to a great start for Buffalo as he had allowed 108 yards on six receptions into his coverage area per PFF.
▶ DT Teair Tart: He has been one of the keys to the Chargers’ stout run defense which leads the NFL with a yield of just 2.7 yards per attempt. However, he’s going to need to step it up even further with an expanded role because the Chargers will be without their other starting DT Dalvin Tomlinson who had gotten off to a strong start after signing as a free agent. Tart and NT Jamaree Caldwell have to hold up at the point of attack and give LBs Del’Shawn Phillips and Daiyan Henley a chance to fill their run gaps if they hope to contain James Cook.
▶ CB Tarheeb Still: He has been the most consistent DB in coverage through two weeks, lining up wide and in the slot. On 62 coverage snaps he has been targeted just three times, allowing two catches for 28 yards. Still will have his hands full trying to cover all the weapons the Bills can get into the pattern.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 30, Chargers 21
Given the dire straits the Chargers have put themselves in with their 0-2 start, the Bills figure to get a highly motivated and desperate team coming to Highmark Stadium, so this one will probably be a close game most of the way. The Chargers’ defense has some talented pieces and it just stifled talented Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty at 2.3 yards per carry. However, 38-year-old Kirk Cousins went 19 of 29 for 253 yards and three TDs, so imagine what Allen might be able to do, especially if DJ Moore can return to play.
Defensively, the Bills are still trying to come together after getting torched for 62 points in the first two games, and Herbert is certainly a dangerous player if he gets on a roll, but the Chargers may be without two injured TEs in this game, and their offensive line is struggling right now, and that’s a concern.
Buffalo Bills 2026 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, W 36-31.
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 p.m.
- Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
- Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
- Week 9: Monday, Nov.9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 13: at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Chargers prediction, keys to pivotal Week 3 matchup
