ORCHARD PARK - The biggest storyline to emerge from the Buffalo Bills’ dispiriting loss to the New England Patriotslast week was the way Drake Maye carved up the secondary of Jim Leonhard’s struggling defense.
Young cornerbacks Maxwell Hairston and Davison Igbinosun could not slow down the Patriots’ batch of mundane receivers, and they certainly didn’t get much help from anyone else on the defense, particularly the safeties and linebackers.
Of course, one of the keys to the defensive malaise was that top cornerback Christian Benford missed the game with a toe injury, but all signs point to him returning Monday night when the Bills go into SoFi Stadium looking to slow down the Los Angeles Rams, a far more daunting task than what they just faced
against New England.
“They're a dynamic offense, they're also dynamic in the run game as well,” coach Joe Brady said. “You have two All-Pros on the outside and an MVP playing the quarterback position. But I think our guys are going to be up for the challenge and it's a great opportunity on Monday Night Football.”
Getting Benford back is critical, but if the Bills are going to survive against Matthew Stafford throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and handing off to Kyren Williams, Benford is only part of the solution.
“Yeah, it was pretty frustrating,” Benford said Thursday of missing the New England game. “I wanted to spin with my boys. I mean, I wanted to be out there and give my best effort to try to make a difference for the team.”
Benford hasn’t gotten off to a particularly good start himself as he struggled in the first three games, part of that due to shadowing the likes of Nico Collins of the Texans and Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions. Those are two outstanding wideouts, but Monday, the Rams have two of those guys and Benford and his boys will need to play much better than they have to date.
“They got a good offense, veteran quarterback, veteran receivers,” Benford said, trying his best to defuse the electricity surrounding the Bills’ secondary. “They got great players. It's the life of the NFL; can't be in the NFL if you're not a good player. We just got to play our technique, play our fundamentals, play Bills football, and not hurt ourselves.”
Easier said than done for Leonhard’s defense that is still trying to figure out how everything fits together.
“We're doing a lot of things good enough to win games, and putting offenses in some tough situations, but we're not capitalizing, and that's kind of been the story so far,” Leonhard said. “Until we start playing more consistently and getting the job done together as a group, we're going to have the ups and downs.
“There's plenty of frustration. You get humbled a little bit, you lose games, you don't close it out the way you want. But there's enough positive in there to continue to push, and we’ve got to get the guys playing together as a group a little bit better. And that's my job to get it done.”
Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Matthew Stafford
This is a battle between the last two NFL MVPs, Allen taking home the award in 2024, Stafford dethroning him last season. They are two of the best QBs in the league, but they have both been highly volatile through four weeks this year.
Allen ranks 11th in completion percentage at 66.4%, but across the last two weeks he has not been sharp, nor has he looked comfortable, and he’s also putting the ball in harm's way too often, highlighted by his egregious, nonsensical interception at the end of the Patriots game. He has three interceptions and has fumbled four times, though the Bills have recovered three.
According to Pro Football Focus, his turnover worthy plays percentage is 5.3% which is fifth-highest among 28 qualified QBs and is more than double where he was at least season. In fact, the only time he has been close to this number was his rookie year when it was 5.1%. And per NFL Savant, his successful play rate of 41.5% is a brutal 25th.
Stafford hasn’t been much better as he ranks 20th in completion percentage (61.1%), his six interceptions are tied for second-most in the league, his overall turnover worthy percentage is 11th-highest at 4.3%, and his success rate of 46.7% is 15th. Part of Stafford’s interception problem is that he has thrown into tight coverage 18.5% of his attempts, the seventh-highest rate in the league.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ LG Alec Anderson: The only real question about the offense heading into the season was how Anderson would fare as a full-time starter and so far, it has been a rough go. Of 52 guards who have played at least 100 pass blocks snaps, PFF has Anderson graded 47th. As a run blocker Anderson has been a little better, but now he has to deal with DTs Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford, assuming Donald is back after missing last week.
▶ WR Khalil Shakir: Even if D.J. Moore plays, it seems like he’s going to continue to be limited with the shoulder injury so the Bills need Shakir to start doing something. He had six catches for 76 yards by halftime last week, most of that with Moore on the field. Once he went out, while Keon Coleman filled the void, Shakir was a ghost in the second half, just like TE Dalton Kincaid. The Rams have a solid slot CB in Josh Wallace and two excellent boundary CBs in Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie, but Shakir has to find a way to be more impactful.
▶ DT Deone Walker: He has exploded on the scene in his second season and is playing at an All-Pro level, and he could do further damage in this game as Rams RG Kevin Dotson has been their weak link up front. Walker has 19 pressures and he is currently PFF’s highest-graded interior pass rusher, helped greatly by his speed, but also his strength which has translated to a 15.7% win rate meaning the percentage of times he’s defeating the blocker or blockers.
▶ CB Maxwell Hairston: Obviously all eyes are going to be on the2025 first-round pick who is coming off a miserable performance against the Patriots. Christian Benford is expected to return after missing last week, so there’s a chance rookie Davison Igbinosun could start ahead of Hairston, though that seems unlikely because the Bills probably don’t want to make that leap yet. However, if the Rams start carving Hairston up, it could be a long night for the Buffalo defense.
Los Angeles Rams who should impact the game
▶ RB Kyren Williams: There’s a lot of focus on the dynamic WR duo, but Williams has become one of the most reliable RBs in the league. His 5.44 yards per attempt ranks fifth among RBs, but his 64.8% success rate (meaning he gains the necessary yardage to keep the offense on schedule) ranks No. 1, and he led the NFL in that category last year as well at 62.9%. One of the keys is that per PFF he has forced 16 missed tackles, fifth-most in the league. For comparison, James Cook has forced 11 missed tackles and his success rate is 57.1%.
▶ WR Puka Nacua: Speaking of success rate, Nacua led all WRs last season with a 70.9% mark, and while that has dipped big-time this year to 42.9%, he has also missed two games and hasn’t had enough opportunities. He figures to be a nightmare for the Bills, especially since they also have to worry about Davante Adams. The last time the Bills played the Rams in that wild 44-42 loss at SoFi, Nacua had 12 catches for 162 yards against a veteran Bills CB group that included Benford, Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson.
▶ CB Trent McDuffie: The Bills are well-acquainted with McDuffie from all their battles against him when he was the Chiefs. Now has been traded to the Rams and he remains a stud as PFF has him as its No. 1-graded boundary corner. He has allowed just five receptions in 18 targets which included a shutdown of the Broncos’ Jaylen Waddle in Week 3. He has given up a catch every 26.4 snaps which is tops in the NFL.
▶ OLB Byron Young: Donald gets so much of the attention, and deservedly so, but the speedy 250-pound Young has been the Rams’ best defensive lineman this season, stepping in a big way to cover the loss of star edge rusher Myles Garrett who is on injured reserve. The Rams defense ranks No. 2 in yards allowed per game at 247.5 and a big reason is a pass rush that ranks second in QB pressure rate at 44.2%. Young is the driver as he leads the Rams with 3.5 sacks and 21 pressures.
Sal’s prediction: Rams 30, Bills 24
The mismatch between the Rams passing game and the Bills defense is too glaring to ignore and Stafford and his prime targets Nacua and Adams have to be licking their chops. Buffalo’s pass rush has been inconsistent because while the Bills are getting some pressure, not much is coming from it because opposing QBs are escaping and finding open receivers against a secondary that is completely messed up, the problems going beyond the inadequacies at cornerback.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson made a big pick against the Chargers, but what else has he done as a veteran leader at safety? Same for Cole Bishop who was supposed to rise into stardom this season after impressive growth last year but has been non-impactful. Dee Alford, who may not play, has not been very good in his role in the slot, and the craziest thing is that Benford, who is the best DB the Bills have, is actually their lowest-graded player in coverage per PFF through four games.
Buffalo Bills 2026 schedule
- Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 13 at Houston Texans, W 36-31.
- Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 17 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 27 vs.Los Angeles Chargers, W 24-16.
- Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4 vs. New England Patriots, L 26-29
- Week 5: Monday, Oct. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 7: Bye Week
- Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
- Week 9: Monday, Nov.9 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:15 p.m.
- Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15 at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
- Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6 at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m.
- Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 13: at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 15: Saturday, Dec. 19 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
- Week 16: Friday, Dec. 25 at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m.
- Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
- Week 18: TBD vs. New York Jets
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Rams prediction, key matchups in Monday Night Football showdown
