The NASCAR Chase is back, but the angst of playoffs' past remain for the 16 drivers competing for a Cup Series title.
The Chase begins on Sept. 6 with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington. Denny Hamlin enters the 10-race run for the championship with the points lead as the top seed, 25 points ahead of Ryan Blaney.
Toyotas litter the top eight, with Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell joining Hamlin atop the first half of the Chase standings.
But Ford's form is pointed upward, led by Blaney and Joey Logano and stamped by Ryan Preece's win at Daytona to make the Chase field.
A reminder about the Chase format: No eliminations, no rounds, 10 races to the trophy. Wins mean a boost of 20 points ahead of second place, which can
add up with a few victories in the fall.
Who is going to win the NASCAR Cup Series title? Our experts pick their title favorites below:
NASCAR Chase picks, surprises and disappointments, Cup Series title prediction
A NASCAR Chase surprise:
Nick Gray, trending sports reporter: Ty Gibbs becomes the highest-standing Toyota driver in the Chase points by Homestead.
Mike Organ, sports reporter: Carson Hocevar will step up his already aggressive racing after dropping to 12th in the point standings following his late crash at Daytona. He won't win the title, but he will make some serious progress.
Tom Kreager, Tennessean sports director: Bubba Wallace made the Chase, and it's now two years in a row in the Chase/playoffs after missing out in 2024. Now, he takes advantage of this opportunity. He won’t win it, but he’ll finish in the top five, which will be a springboard for 2027.
A NASCAR Chase disappointment?
Nick Gray: Toyota. After dominating the regular season, Toyota fails to win the Cup Series title. And by extension I suppose, add Denny Hamlin here.
Mike Organ: Ryan Blaney's hope to win the championship for the second time in four years following a much better 2026 season will come up short — even though Fords have apparently caught up to Toyotas.
Tom Kreager: Denny Hamlin has been on fire during the regular season. But in a year where he’s the favorite to win the elusive NASCAR Cup championship, it eludes him again and he finishes runner-up.
Who wins the NASCAR Chase in 2026?
Nick Gray: Ryan Blaney. Denny Hamlin’s form has dropped a shade, and it opens the door for Blaney to get it done again. Blaney knows how to do it, and he’s been consistent all year.
Mike Organ: Finally, Denny Hamlin will claim his first championship at age 45. He's been consistent in the second half of the season with an average finish of seventh place over the last 13 races and a total of five wins on the year.
Tom Kreager: Ryan Blaney. He seems to have his team in the right direction. The only hold up has been his pit crew and that’s been fixed by swapping crews with Team Penske teammate Austin Cindric, a sign that Penske is all in on Blaney winning.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NASCAR Chase picks, surprises: Will Denny Hamlin finally win the Cup Series title?
