Early voting for Tennessee’s Nov. 3 midterms is just weeks away.
With hundreds of candidates on the ballot statewide, the biggest decision voters will make will be who will serve as Tennessee’s 51st governor. It’ll be a historic choice as both Republicans and Democrats have female nominees for the first time in the state's 230-year history.
As Democrats across the country seek to take back the U.S. House majority, they’re eyeing a few districts in Tennessee that, despite partisan gerrymandering, have remained competitive.
Also, three proposed changes to Tennessee’s Constitution will be up for voters’ consideration, including one that would revoke the right to bail for defendants accused, but not yet convicted, of certain serious crimes.
And while
it’s unlikely that U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty will face a serious challenge, or Republicans will lose control of their supermajority in both state House and Senate, Democrats could be on the path to flip multiple state legislature seats.
Here are the top five storylines we’re watching in November:
Who will become Tennessee’s first female governor?
Tennessee will almost certainly elect a woman to the governor’s office for the first time in the state’s 230-year history this November. But who will it be? Both Republicans and Democrats chose female nominees, and a well-funded independent candidate, supported by the Forward Party, is also making waves statewide. Other independents have poured millions into their own bids.
- Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn – Blackburn is Republican establishment royalty, whose 34-year political career has taken her from the steps of Tennessee's State Capitol to the Republican National Convention and into the Oval Office as a top ally of President Donald Trump. A Mississippi beauty queen turned marketing consultant, Blackburn is a native of Laurel, Mississippi, and attended Mississippi State University on a 4-H scholarship, graduating in 1974 with a degree in home economics. Blackburn, who was re-elected to the U.S. Senate in 2024, has said she's seeking the governorship instead of opting to finish out four years of her Senate term because President Donald Trump is shifting power back to the states. Even before U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn announced her bid for Tennessee governor, polls put her ahead of GOP primary rivals by 30 to 50 percentage points. At 74, Blackburn would be the oldest person Tennessee ever elected governor. Her platform covers the touchstones of the GOP base: pro-gun, pro-life views with pledges to "crack down" on China, restrict cell phone use in schools, reduce the size of state government, and recruit more jobs to the state.
- Democrat Memphis Councilwoman Jerri Green – Green has served on the Memphis City Council since 2024 and is also deputy chief of staff for Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris. While in the mayor’s office, Green has helped guide the administration to fund more midwives in Memphis in an effort to improve maternal health. She has also sought pay increases for school bus monitors and helped spearhead an innovative free “gun lock by mail” program. Green’s campaign is focused on expanding access to affordable health care, and keeping rural hospitals open, funding public schools and making life more affordable for working families.
- Independent Lauren Pinkston – With 47% of voters nationally identifying as independent, Columbia businesswoman Lauren Pinkston wants to give voters who don't identify with either major political party someone to vote for. A West Tennessee native, Pinkston grew up in Selmer and attended Freed Hardeman University, then moved to Memphis. A seventh-generation Tennessean, Pinkston and her husband moved with their children to Laos for five years, where Pinkston worked for a nonprofit supporting human trafficking survivors. While working on her doctorate degree, she helped draft the first anti-trafficking law considered in the Laotian parliament. Revitalizing local public schools, reforming the structure of school testing and teacher accountability, and increasing teacher pay are top priorities for Pinkston, who started her career as a fourth grade teacher and later taught at Lipscomb University. She’s been endorsed by Andrew Yang’s Forward Party.
Will Tennessee Republicans' gerrymandering strategy help the GOP defend a House majority?
Seeking to defend Republicans’ U.S. House majority in the midterms, President Donald Trump called on Tennessee Republicans to redraw the state’s Congressional map after the Supreme Court's Callais decision rolled back protections guaranteed by the Voting Rights Act.
In a dramatic special legislative session called by Gov. Bill Lee, Republican lawmakers split up Tennessee’s last remaining Democratic U.S. House seat in the majority-minority 9th Congressional District, fracturing Black voting power in Memphis, and making all nine of the state’s U.S. House districts heavily favor Republicans.
In a 60-40 Republican majority state, could the strategy backfire? Three well-funded, deeply-organized Democrats are making Tennessee’s congressional races interesting.
- Congressional District 5: Democrat Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder vs. Republican Former TN Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher: About 83% of voters in Tennessee's 5th district were in a different district when candidates originally qualified for the ballot prior to redistricting. The new District 5 stretches from just south of Nashville to downtown Memphis.
- Molder has been mayor of Columbia since 2018, when he defeated two-term incumbent Republican Mayor Dean Dickey. As mayor, Molder has worked to improve the city's infrastructure and passed balanced budgets each year. He has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and a war chest of nearly $2 million.
- Hatcher is a fifth-generation dairy farmer, veterinarian and businessman who served as Tennessee’s agriculture commissioner for seven years. Before that, he was Tennessee's state veterinarian. Hatcher owns and operates Hatcher Family Dairy in College Grove, which has been in the Hatcher family since 1819. Hatcher defeated Trump-endorsed incumbent U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles with backing from a renewable energy PAC in a stunning upset on Aug. 6.
- Congress District 7: Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Matt Van Epps v. Nashville businessman Darden Copeland: Since Van Epps was elected less than a year ago, Republicans redrew the 7th Congressional District, removing several rural counties, and adding southwest Nashville. While incumbents typically have the advantage of name recognition, Van Epps had only six months of incumbency before his district shifted. Internal polling from the Copeland campaign found the race within 5 points.
- Van Epps was virtually unknown politically until launching his bid for Congress last year, when he framed his campaign around his fealty to Trump and his experience as a "battle tested warrior" in the Army. He pulled off a single-digit victory in December after receiving millions in outside PAC support and benefiting from multiple tele-town halls with Trump. A native of Mentor, Ohio, he is a West Point graduate and decorated U.S. Army veteran who served nine tours in Afghanistan and Iraq as a combat helicopter pilot. Van Epps’ professional life outside the military has been primarily as a state government bureaucrat, including service as Tennessee's General Services commissioner.
- Copeland, a longtime political operative who founded public relations firm Calvert Street Group, is running as a political outsider. A longtime political operative, Copeland worked on Al Gore's presidential run in 2000, Tim Kaine's run for lieutenant governor of Virginia and John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. As an organizer, he worked to coalesce support around Nashville's 2011 charter referendum to preserve the city's fairgrounds. He's focused his campaign on activating voters of all political stripes in rural counties who feel voiceless.
- Congress District 9: Democratic State Rep. Justin J. Pearson vs. Republican State Sen. Brent Taylor: For the first time since the 1970s, Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District could be held by a Republican after redistricting requested byTrump split Memphis into three districts, fracturing Black voting power and the influence of Democrats across Shelby County and creating a Republican-heavy district.
- Pearson is a Memphis native political organizer who has represented part of Shelby County since January 2023. He is co-founder of Memphis Community Against Pollution, a grassroots movement that grew to include Vice President Al Gore and entertainer Justin Timberlake, successfully stopping the multi-billion dollar crude oil Byhalia Pipeline from being built through Black Memphis neighborhoods. Pearson won a special election to the state legislature in 2023, and was sworn in at age 28, becoming the third youngest lawmaker ever to serve in the state House. Weeks later, Republicans expelled Pearson after he interrupted House proceedings by holding a gun control protest on the House floor after the Covenant School shooting. The Shelby County Commission immediately reappointed him and he has since been reelected.
- Taylor has represented parts of east Memphis, Germantown and Eads in Shelby County since his election in 2022. A funeral director by trade, Taylor was on the Shelby County Election Commission, the Shelby County Commission and the Memphis City Council prior to his election to the statehouse. Taylor is a staunch Trump supporter and has described himself throughout his campaign as "impeachment insurance" for the president. Taylor has been a critic of Memphis District Attorney Steve Mulroy, accusing him of being soft on crime. Trump endorsed Taylor on July 13.
Will voters approve proposed Constitutional amendments?
Changing Tennessee’s state Constitution is a yearslong process. This year, three proposed amendments will be on the ballot for voters’ approval in November:
- Denial of bail for more crimes– Currently, Tennessee judges can only deny bail for defendants charged with first degree murder or rape of a child under 12. This amendment would also remove defendants’ right to bail for charges of terrorism, second degree murder, aggravated rape of a child, grave torture, vehicular homicide, aggravated assault, human trafficking, carjacking, and possession of a firearm during commission or attempt of a dangerous felony. Judges could still decide to set bail in such cases.
- Banning a statewide property tax – Tennessee has not collected a state property tax for more than 75 years. No one has proposed to establish one in recent memory. This amendment would bar the state from instating a statewide property tax in the future. A large coalition of Republican leaders have assembled to support a “Yes on 2” campaign.
- Guaranteeing victims’ rights – This amendment would enshrine certain rights for victims of crimes in the state Constitution, including the right to be informed of the minimum sentence the offender will serve in custody and scheduled release date, the right to confer with the prosecution, the right to be heard in any plea, sentencing and parole hearings, and the right to be present at all proceedings.
Can Democrats make inroads in Tennessee's GOP supermajorities?
While there will be a historically large freshman class of state lawmakers at the Capitol next January, it’s unlikely that Democrats will be able to make strong inroads in Tennessee’s state legislature – in which Republicans have held a supermajority since 2012. But they could flip a few seats. Here are races to watch:
- Senate District 17: Sen. Mark Pody, R-Lebanon, vs. Democrat Lindsey Patrick-Wright: Republican Sen. Mark Pody has been reelected without any opposition since 2018, prior to redistricting that added a sliver of Nashville to his district. This year, Pody made national headlines when he sponsored a bill that would have allowed women who receive abortions to be prosecuted for murder — with penalties extending to life in prison or the death penalty. He'll face Wilson County librarian Lindsey Patrick-Wright in November. Patrick-Wright ran to challenge Pody on accountability and accessibility to constituents. In her profession, she says, librarians “have to account for every single dollar that we spend.” She wants to see the same level of accountability from state government.
- House District 75: Rep. Michael Lankford, R-Palmyra, vs. Democrat Allie Phillips: Lankford has represented the district since December filling the vacancy created by the late Rep. Jeff Burkhart’s death. At the time, Lankford and now-Democratic nominee Phillips tied the County Commission in a 9-9 vote, broken by the Montgomery County Mayor, who appointed Lankford. Running for the first time two years ago, Phillips made national headlines, sharing her personal story of how Tennessee’s abortion trigger law forced her to travel out of state for an abortion. She won 45% of the vote in 2024. In the August primary — while they were not head-to-head on the ballot — Phillips trailed Lankford by less than 300 votes.
- House District 97: Rep. John Gillespie, R-Memphis, vs. Democrat Jesse Huseth: The seat almost flipped two years ago, when Gillespie won the seat by a margin of fewer than 1,200 votes. At the time, he had come under fire for sponsoring legislation that overturned a Memphis City Council ordinance that had banned “pretextual” traffic stops after the fatal beating of Tyre Nichols by Memphis police officers. Since his reelection in 2024, Gillespie has supported a state takeover of Memphis-Shelby County Schools, and sponsored legislation to crack down on drag racing in Memphis. Huseth is a veteran staffer of Shelby County Schools and opposes private school vouchers. He supports repealing the state's permitless carry law, requiring safe gun storage in cars, and allowing courts to issue "extreme risk orders of protection" to confiscate weapons from those who are a threat to themselves or others. In their separate primaries in August, Gillespie and Huseth earned almost exactly the same number of votes — with Gillespie ahead by 28 votes.
Will Sen. Bill Hagerty retain his seat in the U.S. Senate?
U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty is up for reelection for the first time since winning the seat in 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hagerty faced no challengers in the August Republican primary. It is quite likely that he will retain his seat.
In November, he’ll see a rematch against Memphis environmental organizer Marquita Bradshaw, whom he defeated 62% to 35% six years ago. Bradshaw won Democratic strongholds of Shelby and Davidson counties in 2020, and eked out a victory in majority Black Haywood County, but has little name recognition in middle and eastern areas of the state.
Vivian Jones covers state government and politics for The Tennessean. Reach her at vjones@tennessean.com.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Tennessee's election has 5 races and hot button issues to watch
